95L C Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

I think we will finally see Delta at 10AM. It looks very good on satellite this morning.

Well nothing at 10 AM EST.They may be waiting for the system to have the center more to the center of the convection not where it is at the SW edge to then upgrade.

Last night the convection was wrapping all around the center and they didn't upgrade it. By the way, remember TD 7 (pre-Gert), it was almost devoid of convection when they upgrade it. Sometimes I just can't understand.

[btangy]

Cyclone phase analysis diagrams indicate this is a symmetric, warm core system, though barely. An upgrade is subjective and depends on the forecaster. I do think we will see Delta before the day is out.

[tallywx]

I think we will finally see Delta at 10AM. It looks very good on satellite this morning.

Well nothing at 10 AM EST.They may be waiting for the system to have the center more to the center of the convection not where it is at the SW edge to then upgrade.

Last night the convection was wrapping all around the center and they didn't upgrade it. By the way, remember TD 7 (pre-Gert), it was almost devoid of convection when they upgrade it. Sometimes I just can't understand.

They won't upgrade so that they can maintain skeleton staffing for the Thanksgiving holiday. They're probably thinking that turkey and a break are more important than advisories on a system that won't affect anyone.

For scientific purposes, they'll make sure to do a post-season post-mortem upgrade by calling it "Tropical Storm #25" when they do those post-storm reports. Too bad, because then the name Delta will not be used, as they don't apply names to reanalysis upgrades.

[cycloneye]

SAT IMAGE



A panoramic view of the whole atlantic and our system.

[LilNoles2005]

It's better to freak people out unnessessarily than it is to not freak them out when they need to be.

No it's not. Ever heard of "the boy who cried wolf"?

Sure it is. What Colby is saying is different from "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" - notice he said that it's better to freak people out unnecessarily than it is to freak them out WHEN THEY NEED TO BE. See, in "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", they did not need to freak out.

[Weatherfreak000]

If EVER there was a mistake made by the NHC this year, two ring out in my head...


The classification of a WELL deserving TD #19


And now the more then likely classification of 95l.




It's not too much to ask for is it? The NHC takes all this money from us. The least they can do is classify these storms when they deserve to be classified.


From what I can gather if it doesn't happen on 5 AM Tomorrow it'll never make it. And from the looks of it the NHC doesn't seem to wanna work on Thanksgiving...

[mike815]

Great point i completly agree. This system deseves classification im getting a bit ticked off.

[Forecaster Colby]

Yep. This looks a lot like Vince or the 1991 unnamed:

[Weatherfreak000]

On another note, 95l appears to be building back into a more circular storm and much stronger convection on the East quad appears to be firing nicely.

[mike815]

Yeah on that image that was just posted it sure does.

[Forecaster Colby]

Thats the SSMI visible.

[P.K.]

The latest TAFB charts have changed from possible tropical development in 24 hours to possible tropical or subtropical development in 36 hours.

[wxwatcher91]

question: what is the strongest a storm has been in its first advisory?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on November 23, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

a strong and large non-tropical low pressure system over the central
Atlantic centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southernmost
Azores Islands is moving southward at 15 mph. This system is
continuing to acquire tropical characteristics over warmer water...
and it could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone later today.
Additional information on this strengthening storm system can be
found in high seas forecasts issued by the TPC Tropical Analysis
and Forecast Branch...under AWIPS header miahsfat2 and WMO header
fznt01 knhc.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Stewart


NO CHANGE, COPY AND PASTE!

[HURAKAN]

question: what is the strongest a storm has been in its first advisory?

NOEL in 2001 was one of the strongest in its first advisory that I have seen, 75 mph.

[Forecaster Colby]

The latest TAFB charts have changed from possible tropical development in 24 hours to possible tropical or subtropical development in 36 hours.

???????????????????????

One word: WHY???

[HURAKAN]

The latest TAFB charts have changed from possible tropical development in 24 hours to possible tropical or subtropical development in 36 hours.

???????????????????????

One word: WHY???

ASK NHC!

[Forecaster Colby]

What in the world are they doing? The storm is becoming stronger and more organized and they're effectively downgrading it a bit.

[HURAKAN]

What in the world are they doing? The storm is becoming stronger and more organized and they're effectively downgrading it a bit.

Accordind to the NHC it's not even subtropical, non-tropical or extratropical.

[Forecaster Colby]

non-tropical=extratropical.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?509,199

This might be a "hurricane" now!