TS Delta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

WindRunner · #41 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:45 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:Delta should become a hurricane just based on the wind field. If it's moving 340^2 * pi square miles of air now, and it contracts to, say, 170^2 * pi, than it'll need to move the air it IS moving four times faster. I don't think we'll see the full effect because this doesn't take into account winds below T.S. force, but even so, only a 30-40% increase is needed.

If it were only that simple . . .

f5 · #42 Postby f5 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:46 pm

she on a flight to Europe?

Forecaster Colby · #43 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:47 pm

It isn't that simple. If it were, we could expect an uber cat 5 Delta from Satan within a few days. However, the contracting will, I think, be enough to provide the small amount of extra spin it needs.

WindRunner · #44 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:54 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:It isn't that simple. If it were, we could expect an uber cat 5 Delta from Satan within a few days. However, the contracting will, I think, be enough to provide the small amount of extra spin it needs.

You do have to remember that some energy is used to warm the core, some given to the wind, some taken by the shear, some gained from the ocean, some used in moving the system as a hole, some used in creating more convection, and I'm sure many others that I haven't named. While I believe that your thoughts are correct numerically, you make it seem as if that is the only thing (the consolidation) affecting it, where convection bursts will be another major factor with this system in particular over the next 48hrs.

#45 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:13 pm

Floater one is now over Delta. Convection continues to increase.

#46 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:14 pm

f5 wrote:she on a flight to Europe?

Not with the 1042hPa high just to the west of here it isn't.

#47 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:20 pm

23/2345 UTC 25.8N 39.9W T3.0/3.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean

They didn't put the word Delta but that is the latest from SSD dvorak technnique sat estimates.

f5 · #48 Postby f5 » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:30 pm

is united and northwest next if anymore develop?

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:49 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051124 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051124 0000 051124 1200 051125 0000 051125 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.6N 40.4W 23.5N 37.7W 25.3N 34.5W 27.4N 34.6W
BAMM 25.6N 40.4W 24.8N 38.2W 25.9N 36.9W 26.4N 37.9W
A98E 25.6N 40.4W 24.6N 39.9W 23.1N 38.5W 22.3N 37.1W
LBAR 25.6N 40.4W 25.0N 39.0W 26.0N 37.4W 28.0N 36.0W
SHIP 50KTS 47KTS 43KTS 41KTS
DSHP 50KTS 47KTS 43KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051126 0000 051127 0000 051128 0000 051129 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.3N 35.7W 30.7N 36.5W 34.3N 31.8W 32.5N 19.8W
BAMM 26.6N 39.8W 27.6N 42.5W 30.4N 44.3W 32.1N 46.5W
A98E 21.5N 35.7W 20.3N 30.8W 22.2N 24.9W 22.6N 20.7W
LBAR 30.3N 35.2W 33.0N 36.1W 31.9N 37.5W 30.5N 30.9W
SHIP 40KTS 40KTS 43KTS 45KTS
DSHP 40KTS 40KTS 43KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.6N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 160DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.2N LONM12 = 40.7W DIRM12 = 176DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 30.0N LONM24 = 40.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 225NM

00:00z Models

Forecaster Colby · #50 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:51 pm

Models all calling for weakening..bull.

#51 Postby **btangy** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:57 pm

Is it over or is Epsilon waiting in the wings

It's mathematically proven: "For every delta, there exists an epsilon." If you don't know what I'm talking about, just ignore this.

Forecaster Colby · #52 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:57 pm

I think Epsilon is about 50/50.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #53 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 7:59 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote::lol: I think Epsilon is about 50/50.

Where?

JamesFromMaine2 · #54 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:00 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Floater one is now over Delta. Convection continues to increase.

its not still over delta! lol or atleast I am not seeing delta here!

Coredesat · #55 Postby **Coredesat** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:06 pm

Clear your cache and reload.

Forecaster Colby · #56 Postby **Forecaster Colby** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:07 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Forecaster Colby wrote::lol: I think Epsilon is about 50/50.

Where?

Either the extreme SW caribbean or like Delta from extratropical storms.

MiamiensisWx · #57 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:08 pm

Forecaster Colby wrote:Models all calling for weakening..bull.

Yep... like I said, I think Delta should have been upgraded much, much earlier when it was looking more organized and/or was newer.

#58 Postby **btangy** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:09 pm

Definitely has an eye-like feature.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #59 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:14 pm

That eye looks to support around a 3.5 t...Which is close to 55 to 60 knots. It might of been a hurricane or very close when it had that eye late last night/into this morning. Vince was likely stronger then 75 mph to...

Yes it should of been upgraded about 24 hours earlier.

JamesFromMaine2 · #60 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:22 pm

I think some people are giving up on this system to quickly! I think its only just beginning. The models from what I have seen don't keep weakening it but at the end it starts to reintensify it. Maybe they weakening it due to shear and as the shear relaxes it starts to reintensify or something I don't know. but I don't think this system is done just yet! On IR it keeps gaining more and more convection and convection has started wrapping around the west side now as well. Its looking pretty good IMO.

TS Delta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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