UNOFFICIAL..Delta Forecast 2; no hurricane; extratrop in 96

[ncweatherwizard]

Quote Storm2K:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.

Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... delta.html

Still, this is a difficult forecast, but I remain near the model concensus and near GFDL, AVN and 18Z CONU without GFDN. Forecast brings this to 55kts before weakening mainly due to cooler waters as the storm again gains latitude. Vertical shear should weaken over the next 24 hours or so.

Scott

[hicksta]

He knows his stuff, while i was evacuating for rita he kept me updated with the information on the storm and i thank him very much for taht

[mike815]

I think it will be a hurricane but the rest of your analasis seems right.

[wxmann_91]

Scott's analysis and forecast seems reasonable. I can't see it go either way (hurricane or TS). Shear is strong, and SST's are marginal, but I've seen worse sustain a hurricane.

[vbhoutex]

I have cleaned the thread up. Some posts were deleted and some were edited to remove references to the offending original post. Please feel free to continue the discussion of Scott's forecast.