How many storms will we have next year?
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fasterdisaster
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krysof
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Forecaster Colby
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wxmann_91
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Forecaster Colby wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:13-15 is my guess, but it's way too early to tell.
Why so much lower than this year?
This year doesn't happen every year. There are several things (QBO, SOI, ENSO, MJO, SST's) that are still up in the air. And, I've been noticing some trends, including that since Maria, most storms have originated non-tropically (via dead fronts), the inactiveness of September (you'd think that I'm crazy, but this is based on how active the EPAC was during the same month, and considering that we had more storms in October, and the same number of storms in July than in September, you'd get the picture), the hostility of the eastern Atlantic, and my observation on how both active and quiet periods have ended with a bang. Of course, this is all conjecture right now, but if it turns out this is true, next year could be even quieter than advertised.
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JamesFromMaine2
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wxmann_91 wrote:Forecaster Colby wrote:wxmann_91 wrote:13-15 is my guess, but it's way too early to tell.
Why so much lower than this year?
This year doesn't happen every year. There are several things (QBO, SOI, ENSO, MJO, SST's) that are still up in the air. And, I've been noticing some trends, including that since Maria, most storms have originated non-tropically (via dead fronts), the inactiveness of September (you'd think that I'm crazy, but this is based on how active the EPAC was during the same month, and considering that we had more storms in October, and the same number of storms in July than in September, you'd get the picture), the hostility of the eastern Atlantic, and my observation on how both active and quiet periods have ended with a bang. Of course, this is all conjecture right now, but if it turns out this is true, next year could be even quieter than advertised.
and if its not true then we all could be sitting here this time next year wishing you had been right! lol
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