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HURAKAN
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#81 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 24, 2005 12:19 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
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#82 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:36 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051124 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051124 0600 051124 1800 051125 0600 051125 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 40.0W 23.0N 37.3W 24.4N 35.0W 25.5N 35.5W
BAMM 24.7N 40.0W 24.1N 38.0W 24.7N 37.5W 24.9N 38.8W
A98E 24.7N 40.0W 23.3N 39.4W 22.3N 38.1W 21.3N 37.3W
LBAR 24.7N 40.0W 24.0N 38.8W 24.9N 37.3W 26.8N 35.9W
SHIP 55KTS 53KTS 48KTS 45KTS
DSHP 55KTS 53KTS 48KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051126 0600 051127 0600 051128 0600 051129 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.0N 36.0W 29.1N 34.6W 32.9N 25.9W 28.4N 6.9W
BAMM 24.9N 40.1W 26.5N 41.9W 30.3N 43.8W 31.4N 46.9W
A98E 21.3N 35.6W 21.8N 30.7W 24.3N 25.4W 24.8N 19.3W
LBAR 28.9N 34.9W 32.4N 33.0W 32.9N 30.0W 31.1N 21.5W
SHIP 41KTS 39KTS 39KTS 39KTS
DSHP 41KTS 39KTS 39KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 40.0W DIRCUR = 160DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 26.4N LONM12 = 40.7W DIRM12 = 165DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 28.6N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 125NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 225NM

"DELTITA," SPANISH FOR "LITTLE DELTA", CONTINUES TO GROW STRONGER, NOW 55 KNOTS.
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#83 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:15 am

Image

Now 55 Kt, 980mb
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#84 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:09 am

24/0545 UTC 24.7N 39.9W T3.5/3.5 95 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#85 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:19 am

Its forming a eye...
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#86 Postby superfly » Thu Nov 24, 2005 5:26 am

First visibles...Pretty sure that isn't a true eye but who knows.

Image
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#87 Postby Cookiely » Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:35 am

What a strange looking eye. It looks like its clouded over but you can see bands inside of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
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#88 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:21 am

24/1145 UTC 24.8N 38.9W T3.0/3.5 95 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:37 am


TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051124 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051124 1200 051125 0000 051125 1200 051126 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 38.9W 23.3N 38.3W 22.6N 38.4W 22.0N 38.6W
BAMM 24.8N 38.9W 24.6N 38.6W 24.5N 39.5W 24.3N 40.7W
A98E 24.8N 38.9W 24.9N 38.0W 24.6N 38.4W 21.8N 39.3W
LBAR 24.8N 38.9W 25.1N 37.6W 26.4N 36.8W 28.0N 36.2W
SHIP 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 60KTS 57KTS 52KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051126 1200 051127 1200 051128 1200 051129 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.0N 37.6W 27.0N 33.3W 29.5N 18.9W 32.0N 6.2E
BAMM 24.3N 41.4W 27.0N 42.0W 31.5N 42.6W 33.5N 46.8W
A98E 21.0N 38.8W 22.7N 36.7W 28.0N 31.9W 26.0N 21.1W
LBAR 29.8N 36.4W 32.0N 37.8W 31.2N 35.5W 29.1N 24.6W
SHIP 45KTS 40KTS 38KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 40KTS 38KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.8N LONCUR = 38.9W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 25.5N LONM12 = 40.2W DIRM12 = 142DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 41.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 180NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 225NM

12:00z Run of the models has it almost a hurricane 60kts.
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#90 Postby WindRunner » Thu Nov 24, 2005 7:41 am

And pressure down a little, too.


Model plots that should update shortly.

Image
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#91 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:38 am

Image
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#92 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:24 am

Image
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#93 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:38 am

it should be a hurricane at 4!!! :D :eek:
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#94 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:45 am

Image
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#95 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Nov 24, 2005 10:53 am

Convection is now increasing around the "hurricane" tropical storm...: Image
EDIT: There, it should show the pic now...
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#96 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:41 am

It looks like it is close to hurricane status and has a very good circulation.
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#97 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:47 am

CapeVerdeWave wrote:It looks like it is close to hurricane status and has a very good circulation.


Don't count on it. There is minimal convection near the center.
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#98 Postby P.K. » Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:34 pm

24/1745 UTC 24.6N 39.2W T3.0/3.5 95 -- Atlantic Ocean
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#99 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:34 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051124 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051124 1800 051125 0600 051125 1800 051126 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.7N 38.9W 23.2N 38.8W 22.0N 38.6W 21.4N 37.0W
BAMM 24.7N 38.9W 24.3N 39.1W 24.1N 39.8W 23.8N 40.1W
A98E 24.7N 38.9W 24.5N 39.1W 23.6N 38.5W 20.6N 37.1W
LBAR 24.7N 38.9W 24.8N 38.5W 25.4N 38.1W 26.4N 37.9W
SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051126 1800 051127 1800 051128 1800 051129 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.8N 34.4W 28.0N 25.4W 27.8N 5.7W 34.1N 15.4E
BAMM 24.4N 39.8W 28.6N 38.5W 32.7N 36.1W 34.7N 35.1W
A98E 19.9N 34.3W 22.0N 28.6W 25.8N 20.1W 27.9N 7.5W
LBAR 27.9N 37.5W 30.9N 36.8W 30.8N 31.1W 28.8N 18.5W
SHIP 49KTS 45KTS 42KTS 39KTS
DSHP 49KTS 45KTS 42KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.7N LONCUR = 38.9W DIRCUR = 125DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 25.0N LONM12 = 39.6W DIRM12 = 123DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.4N LONM24 = 40.8W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 180NM RD34SW = 200NM RD34NW = 200NM

18:00z Models.No change from this mornings run so no hurricane at 4 PM EST.
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#100 Postby WindRunner » Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:49 pm

Not necessarily a hurricane, something could still happen over the next 2 hours or so.
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