TS Delta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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mike815
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#101 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 24, 2005 2:11 pm

I agree hurricane at 4 though it might be as late as tonight or tomorrow morn.
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#102 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:27 pm

Hurricane by tomorrow at 11 am I think...it is getting more
organized...convection building and slowly getting closer
to center
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#103 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 3:48 pm

Image
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#104 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:00 pm

Large swath for a little storm
Image
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#105 Postby WindRunner » Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:00 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Hurricane by tomorrow at 11 am I think...it is getting more
organized...convection building and slowly getting closer
to center


That'll probably be the time, if ever.
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#106 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:17 pm

Image
Since 1851 five TS have form around where Delta formed.
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#107 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2005 4:26 pm

cjrciadt wrote:Image
Since 1851 five TS have form around where Delta formed.


WOW. Talk about divergence in tracks and steering patterns
They go all over the place...interesting
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#108 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:17 pm

Come Delta!!!! Deep convection is forming over the southeastern quad. Come on wrap around the eye. COME ON DELTA BECOME A HURRICANE!!!!!
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#109 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Nov 24, 2005 6:18 pm

I can't believe we've had so many storms even with unfavorable
cape verde conditions...
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#110 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:16 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051125 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051125 0000 051125 1200 051126 0000 051126 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.1N 38.9W 22.7N 38.3W 23.2N 36.5W 24.9N 35.6W
BAMM 24.1N 38.9W 23.5N 38.9W 23.5N 38.3W 24.1N 37.8W
A98E 24.1N 38.9W 23.1N 39.2W 22.0N 38.2W 21.7N 36.0W
LBAR 24.1N 38.9W 24.0N 38.6W 24.5N 38.2W 25.9N 37.6W
SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 56KTS 53KTS
DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 56KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051127 0000 051128 0000 051129 0000 051130 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 34.4W 31.9N 29.5W 33.6N 12.8W 41.2N 10.1E
BAMM 25.6N 36.6W 29.9N 32.6W 30.8N 24.1W 27.8N 7.9W
A98E 22.4N 33.0W 23.6N 26.0W 25.8N 16.2W 27.9N 3.4W
LBAR 27.8N 37.1W 30.4N 35.7W 30.9N 28.0W 28.3N 13.5W
SHIP 52KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS
DSHP 52KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.1N LONCUR = 38.9W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 24.8N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 122DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 25.5N LONM24 = 40.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 980MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 140NM RD34NW = 160NM

00:00z Models has it still as a tropical storm so no hurricane at 10 PM EST.
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#111 Postby WindRunner » Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:17 pm

TS wind field continues to shrink dramatically.
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#112 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Nov 24, 2005 8:34 pm

Must not of been that close to hurricane earlier...Because the convection is wraping around the eye.
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#113 Postby mike815 » Thu Nov 24, 2005 9:29 pm

Yeah it is oh well i guess in the morn. it will be upgraded maybe.
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#114 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:56 am

55kts

WHXX01 KWBC 250645
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051125 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051125 0600 051125 1800 051126 0600 051126 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 39.2W 22.4N 38.3W 23.0N 35.7W 25.1N 33.3W
BAMM 23.8N 39.2W 23.4N 39.4W 23.1N 38.8W 24.1N 37.4W
A98E 23.8N 39.2W 23.6N 39.6W 23.3N 39.2W 23.1N 37.0W
LBAR 23.8N 39.2W 23.7N 38.9W 24.4N 38.2W 25.6N 37.5W
SHIP 55KTS 51KTS 45KTS 41KTS
DSHP 55KTS 51KTS 45KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051127 0600 051128 0600 051129 0600 051130 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 30.0W 31.1N 18.1W 34.4N 5.0E 39.7N 29.5E
BAMM 26.1N 35.2W 30.5N 30.3W 30.3N 18.4W 34.2N 2.1E
A98E 23.2N 33.5W 24.3N 26.5W 25.8N 17.3W 28.7N 4.0W
LBAR 27.3N 36.3W 30.5N 31.9W 29.9N 22.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 38KTS 36KTS 33KTS
DSHP 39KTS 38KTS 36KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 187DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 39.6W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 140NM RD34SW = 140NM RD34NW = 160NM
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#115 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:56 am

Given what I said a couple of days ago look at the latest forecast track. :lol: (Haven't got time to check the models now though)
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#116 Postby Cookiely » Fri Nov 25, 2005 6:47 am

Dear Delta,
Don't feel bad if you don't become a hurricane because you are still unique in the history of tropical storms. You are the one and only Delta. Also, as a consolation prize you get a trip to Europe. :lol:
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#117 Postby WindRunner » Fri Nov 25, 2005 7:57 am

Well, like I said earlier, it's rather appropriate that we finish out this season with one last 70mph TS.
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#118 Postby P.K. » Fri Nov 25, 2005 8:23 am

WHXX01 KWBC 251247
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051125 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051125 1200 051126 0000 051126 1200 051127 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 39.5W 21.8N 38.3W 22.1N 34.8W 24.6N 31.0W
BAMM 23.4N 39.5W 23.0N 39.3W 23.3N 38.2W 25.0N 36.3W
A98E 23.4N 39.5W 22.8N 39.6W 22.2N 38.8W 21.4N 36.1W
LBAR 23.4N 39.5W 23.2N 39.0W 24.0N 38.2W 25.5N 37.1W
SHIP 55KTS 49KTS 41KTS 37KTS
DSHP 55KTS 49KTS 41KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051127 1200 051128 1200 051129 1200 051130 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 26.1W 28.5N 9.3W 32.1N 13.2E 33.0N 34.7E
BAMM 27.4N 34.1W 30.5N 26.7W 31.9N 10.7W 39.0N .9E
A98E 21.1N 32.6W 21.0N 24.9W 21.3N 17.6W 21.8N 10.6W
LBAR 27.5N 35.2W 29.7N 29.0W 29.3N 16.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 31KTS 22KTS 0KTS
DSHP 34KTS 31KTS 22KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.4N LONCUR = 39.5W DIRCUR = 205DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 24.0N LONM12 = 39.0W DIRM12 = 202DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 24.8N LONM24 = 38.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 110NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 140NM RD34NW = 140NM
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#119 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Nov 25, 2005 12:12 pm

Image

BYE, BYE IN A FEW MORE DAYS.
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#120 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Nov 25, 2005 12:34 pm

Delta seems to be slowly weakening...but there's some heavy
convection off to its Southeast that it has not taken advantage of...
Image
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