The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be
used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may
not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed
by any professional institution including storm2k.org For
Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
UNOFFICIAL ATLANTIC HURRICANE OUTLOOK & REASONING- 2006 AND BEYOND
ASSUMING NO EL NINO SETS UP; FOR NON-EL NINO YEARS ONLY:
SSTs to remain high...More high pressure and less shear
due to hotter ssts and hotter temps promoting more
sinking air, the sinking air sets up as high pressure to
reduce shear...and hotter temps means the hot ridges
last well into late into the season with September-type
ridging likely in Oct/November of 2006 or a later year,
thus reducing shear and aiding in temperature gradient
contrast with lower basin pressures in caribbean/GOM
which meteorologically speaking all equates to more
favorable activity well throughout 2006 or a later year.
Due to the warm SSTs and the dual feedback mechanism
that takes place between warm SSTs and ridging I expect
an early start to the season once SSTs are warm enough
to galvanize/promote sinking high pressure that in turn
aids in hurricane formation by inherent shear reduction.
These same feedback mechanism factors will allow activity
to continue through the latter part of the season, probably
past the traditional end date for the season. This may include
cape verde systems appearing until much later than normal
given the aforementioned dual feedback mechanism
enhancement that would galvanize powerful manifestation
of Atlantic Ridging.
The SST facets of Enhanced Ridging feedback mechanisms
would promote the development and rapid intensification of
very potent systems. The number of very powerful hurricanes
will also be a lot higher than normal due to this fact. A heated,
more unstable atmosphere, contrasting more intensely in terms
of pressure gradient with a very powerful high pressure ridge
driven by the enhanced riding feedback mechanism, along with
additional moisture content threshold increases and subsequent
rainfall intensity increases will help to drive more powerful
storms. Intense convection due to enhanced heat content will
lead to more rapid pressure drops and subsequently much
stronger storms.
Bottom Line: 2006 and/or a later year will likely be VERY ACTIVE/RECORD ACTIVE
Rational Numerical Guess:
2006 AND/OR FUTURE YEAR:
Named Storms- 25
Hurricanes- 15
Major Hurricanes- 9
25/15/9
Number of Category 5's: Between 3 and 5
Unofficial Hurricane Theory Prediction for future seasons
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
20 named storms
12 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
2 cat5s
I think we will have these kind of seasons for the next 10 to 15 years. Fellowed by a slow down. I think its time for New orleans to be moved inland or more people will die. In I do think Florida needs to think hurt before they build up there towns. Thats all...
12 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
2 cat5s
I think we will have these kind of seasons for the next 10 to 15 years. Fellowed by a slow down. I think its time for New orleans to be moved inland or more people will die. In I do think Florida needs to think hurt before they build up there towns. Thats all...
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:20 named storms
12 hurricanes
6 major hurricanes
2 cat5s
I think we will have these kind of seasons for the next 10 to 15 years. Fellowed by a slow down. I think its time for New orleans to be moved inland or more people will die. In I do think Florida needs to think hurt before they build up there towns. Thats all...
It's not that easy
. So many people including me have memories
of spending time in New Orleans, and for those that have grown up there
the thought of moving out or of seeing the place hit by a storm is
devastating...
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
If we where to of stayed in unfavable areas for the last 2.5 million years. When the ice ages come in then out. The human race would not be here today...What made us what we are, is because we can stay out of danger like a ice age or something else like a hurricane. While most every thing else has died.
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DoctorHurricane2003
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Anonymous
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I respectfully disagree
People are forgetting that this year had RECORD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ANOMALIES!
The SSTAs are already showing a decline from the peak in June. If this trend continues, which it should, it is very doubtful we will see 20-25 named storms next year.
My fear is that with above normal SST's and a possible La Nina next year...we could very well have 15-18 named storms.
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WindRunner
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- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
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Scorpion
DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:I respectfully disagree
People are forgetting that this year had RECORD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ANOMALIES!
The SSTAs are already showing a decline from the peak in June. If this trend continues, which it should, it is very doubtful we will see 20-25 named storms next year.
Doesn't mean they can't go back up next year.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be
used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may
not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed
by any professional institution including storm2k.org For
Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
IMO higher ssts would enhance ridge feedback mechanisms and thus
reduce shear, so higher ssts and reduced shear would allow for a
greater proportion of intense hurricanes. I am willing to hypothesize,
since these cycle shifts are quite abrupt (1994/1995 active cycle
an abrupt shift) that IF global warming is really playing a role here,
its consequences and impacts on hurricanes would manifest
themselves abruptly and considerably. It will take a few more
years of observation, inference, and analysis to truly ascertain
as to whether this is the case in the Atlantic Basin. It is important
to note, however, that the fact that other basins have not seen this
type of 2005-Atlantic ridiculously excessive activity at this point in time
should not lend itself to a refutation of global warming's impacts
for the future. IF global warming is to verify, its manifestations would
appear abruptly in other basins, not necessarily gradually. In the year
X for example, other basins may be quiet, but we cannot rule out
the possibility that X+1 or X+2 or X+3 years may evince manifestations
of an abrupt and sudden increase in storm activity and/or intensity that
could be precipitated by global warming.
Also consider that the record-shattering 2005 season has occurred
even with unfavorable conditions in the Cape Verde region, preventing
Cape Verde long-trackers. Imagine a year like 2005 without the
unfavorable Cape Verde conditions . We have had a
record season in almost every way, shattering almost every
record, despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic. Although many
waves were tenacious enough to move further west and
develop despite these conditions, other waves were ripped apart.
Imagine if those other waves had developed. 2005's numbers
would have been even more mind-shocking.
Also note that many of the tropical waves this year have been
quite a bit more tenacious than waves in many previous
active years. It's almost as if some other force is strongly driving
these waves to persist despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions.
More CO-2 = Warmer Global Temps = Warmer SSTs = Stronger
Hurricanes = Stronger Sinking Air Ridges (due to feedback
mechanisms) that reduce shear = More favorable environment
for hurricane formation and intensification
In actuality though I think human induced greenhouse gases = more
heat trapped = higher ssts = more co-2 in ocean = more co-2 yielded
from outgassing of co-2 in a hurricane = more co-2 back in the atmosphere again to continue the vicious cycle...
Now global warming IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR, but it deserves
consideration.
used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may
not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed
by any professional institution including storm2k.org For
Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
IMO higher ssts would enhance ridge feedback mechanisms and thus
reduce shear, so higher ssts and reduced shear would allow for a
greater proportion of intense hurricanes. I am willing to hypothesize,
since these cycle shifts are quite abrupt (1994/1995 active cycle
an abrupt shift) that IF global warming is really playing a role here,
its consequences and impacts on hurricanes would manifest
themselves abruptly and considerably. It will take a few more
years of observation, inference, and analysis to truly ascertain
as to whether this is the case in the Atlantic Basin. It is important
to note, however, that the fact that other basins have not seen this
type of 2005-Atlantic ridiculously excessive activity at this point in time
should not lend itself to a refutation of global warming's impacts
for the future. IF global warming is to verify, its manifestations would
appear abruptly in other basins, not necessarily gradually. In the year
X for example, other basins may be quiet, but we cannot rule out
the possibility that X+1 or X+2 or X+3 years may evince manifestations
of an abrupt and sudden increase in storm activity and/or intensity that
could be precipitated by global warming.
Also consider that the record-shattering 2005 season has occurred
even with unfavorable conditions in the Cape Verde region, preventing
Cape Verde long-trackers. Imagine a year like 2005 without the
unfavorable Cape Verde conditions . We have had a
record season in almost every way, shattering almost every
record, despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions in the eastern Atlantic. Although many
waves were tenacious enough to move further west and
develop despite these conditions, other waves were ripped apart.
Imagine if those other waves had developed. 2005's numbers
would have been even more mind-shocking.
Also note that many of the tropical waves this year have been
quite a bit more tenacious than waves in many previous
active years. It's almost as if some other force is strongly driving
these waves to persist despite heavy shear, dry air or other
unfavorable conditions.
More CO-2 = Warmer Global Temps = Warmer SSTs = Stronger
Hurricanes = Stronger Sinking Air Ridges (due to feedback
mechanisms) that reduce shear = More favorable environment
for hurricane formation and intensification
In actuality though I think human induced greenhouse gases = more
heat trapped = higher ssts = more co-2 in ocean = more co-2 yielded
from outgassing of co-2 in a hurricane = more co-2 back in the atmosphere again to continue the vicious cycle...
Now global warming IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR, but it deserves
consideration.
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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
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