TS Delta,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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#121 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Fri Nov 25, 2005 12:35 pm

Interesting how a lot of the convection is on the eastern side and
how it is almost devoid of convection on its western side...hybrid
perhaps
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#122 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2005 1:47 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051125 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051125 1800 051126 0600 051126 1800 051127 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.1N 39.9W 21.3N 38.0W 22.6N 33.6W 25.7N 28.9W
BAMM 23.1N 39.9W 22.5N 39.3W 23.6N 37.1W 26.1N 34.2W
A98E 23.1N 39.9W 22.5N 40.3W 21.8N 39.5W 20.9N 36.8W
LBAR 23.1N 39.9W 22.7N 39.4W 23.2N 38.4W 24.7N 36.7W
SHIP 50KTS 44KTS 38KTS 35KTS
DSHP 50KTS 44KTS 38KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051127 1800 051128 1800 051129 1800 051130 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.5N 22.5W 31.3N .6W 37.0N 26.5E 34.3N 45.8E
BAMM 28.7N 30.6W 30.0N 15.9W 34.8N 3.7E 42.3N 17.2E
A98E 21.2N 33.5W 20.9N 25.4W 20.9N 18.1W 21.1N 10.8W
LBAR 26.7N 34.3W 28.8N 26.2W 28.4N 10.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 33KTS 29KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 29KTS 18KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.1N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 225DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 39.3W DIRM12 = 217DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 38.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 984MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 130NM

18:00z Models.Delta is winding down as the shear is increasing so say goodbye very soon to Delta but made more history as it was the 25th named system in 2005.
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#123 Postby superfly » Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:05 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Interesting how a lot of the convection is on the eastern side and
how it is almost devoid of convection on its western side...hybrid
perhaps


More like heavily sheared.
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#124 Postby WindRunner » Fri Nov 25, 2005 2:14 pm

All the models continue their Africa campaign, and we might see a slightly faster NHC track at 4pm.

Image
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#125 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:27 pm

First African landfall? Not likely, but possible.
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#126 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:33 pm

60 MPH now...still moving SW...
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#127 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:40 pm

There's no way Delta will still be tropical when she reaches Africa. That's three days out, and she's already winding down. Vince should be able to at least keep his record for the rest of the season he set it in!

I actually don't think Delta was fully warm-core. Dry air intrusion kept the convection pretty anemic, and none of the cloudtops were terribly cold. The lack of convection probably has something to do with SSTs - Vince's cloudtops were pretty warm too. Doesn't mean it's not a legitimate tropical storm, just that it's a different type of tropical system and we can't necessarily apply conventional tropical wisdom to this sort of situation.
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#128 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Nov 25, 2005 3:51 pm

Image

LOOK HOW EVIDENT THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS!
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#129 Postby hicksta » Fri Nov 25, 2005 4:12 pm

lovin the icon
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#130 Postby WindRunner » Fri Nov 25, 2005 8:50 pm

I'm not sure which one they'll go with at 10, however the 50kts one was the second one run a little later, if that means anything.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051126 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051126 0000 051126 1200 051127 0000 051127 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 39.8W 21.1N 36.6W 23.4N 31.8W 26.4N 26.4W
BAMM 22.3N 39.8W 22.3N 37.9W 24.5N 34.9W 27.4N 31.5W
A98E 22.3N 39.8W 21.3N 39.4W 21.1N 38.2W 21.2N 35.1W
LBAR 22.3N 39.8W 22.1N 38.7W 23.1N 37.0W 24.9N 34.7W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 32KTS 29KTS
DSHP 45KTS 38KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051128 0000 051129 0000 051130 0000 051201 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 18.8W 30.4N 2.8E 37.3N 27.6E 36.1N 47.5E
BAMM 29.3N 27.2W 28.6N 12.9W 33.1N 5.3E 40.8N 20.5E
A98E 21.6N 31.4W 20.4N 24.7W 19.2N 18.7W 18.5N 14.1W
LBAR 26.7N 31.3W 27.5N 20.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 27KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 27KTS 23KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 39.5W DIRM12 = 210DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 39.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 125NM RD34NW = 90NM






DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051126 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051126 0000 051126 1200 051127 0000 051127 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 39.8W 21.1N 36.6W 23.4N 31.8W 26.4N 26.4W
BAMM 22.3N 39.8W 22.3N 37.9W 24.5N 34.9W 27.4N 31.5W
A98E 22.3N 39.8W 21.3N 39.4W 21.0N 38.1W 21.1N 35.1W
LBAR 22.3N 39.8W 22.1N 38.7W 23.1N 37.0W 24.9N 34.7W
SHIP 50KTS 44KTS 37KTS 34KTS
DSHP 50KTS 44KTS 37KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051128 0000 051129 0000 051130 0000 051201 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.7N 18.8W 30.4N 2.8E 37.3N 27.6E 36.1N 47.5E
BAMM 29.3N 27.2W 28.6N 12.9W 33.1N 5.3E 40.8N 20.5E
A98E 21.5N 31.4W 20.3N 24.8W 19.1N 19.0W 18.3N 14.5W
LBAR 26.7N 31.4W 27.5N 20.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 31KTS 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.3N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 39.5W DIRM12 = 210DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 24.0N LONM24 = 39.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 125NM RD34NW = 90NM

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#131 Postby aerojad » Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:00 am

Forecast track overlayed with sea surface temps, as if we didn't know it's getting cold up there :p

linky!
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#132 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:00 pm

Image
bye, bye Delta
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#133 Postby quandary » Sat Nov 26, 2005 12:48 pm

Ironically, it is more convectively active now than it has been.
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#134 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Nov 26, 2005 1:43 pm

I agree the eastern side is very convective...
Image
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#135 Postby P.K. » Sat Nov 26, 2005 2:14 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 261826
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051126 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051126 1800 051127 0600 051127 1800 051128 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.7N 37.3W 25.0N 32.2W 27.8N 25.9W 28.6N 17.4W
BAMM 22.7N 37.3W 24.9N 33.8W 27.5N 29.3W 28.4N 23.6W
A98E 22.7N 37.3W 23.5N 34.9W 24.9N 31.7W 26.5N 28.6W
LBAR 22.7N 37.3W 24.3N 34.6W 26.4N 30.9W 27.6N 25.8W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 25KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051128 1800 051129 1800 051130 1800 051201 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.0N 6.7W 35.8N 16.4E 38.3N 38.6E 32.4N 52.6E
BAMM 27.8N 16.8W 30.0N .2W 36.9N 17.6E 42.8N 36.8E
A98E 26.8N 24.5W 21.6N 16.4W 17.8N 13.3W 18.1N 12.5W
LBAR 27.7N 19.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.7N LONCUR = 37.3W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 21.9N LONM12 = 39.4W DIRM12 = 99DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.9N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 90NM
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#136 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 26, 2005 8:14 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051127 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051127 0000 051127 1200 051128 0000 051128 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMM 23.6N 35.6W 26.4N 31.9W 28.4N 27.1W 28.5N 21.2W
A98E 23.6N 35.6W 25.5N 32.1W 27.0N 28.2W 27.9N 24.0W
LBAR 23.6N 35.6W 26.1N 32.0W 28.0N 27.5W 28.5N 21.3W
SHIP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 35KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051129 0000 051130 0000 051201 0000 051202 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMM 27.8N 14.0W 31.5N 3.2E 40.6N 18.6E 48.1N 27.4E
A98E 27.9N 18.6W 27.2N 8.4W 28.2N 1.6E 34.7N 14.9E
LBAR 28.2N 13.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 35.6W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 68DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.3N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

Barely is a TS.
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#137 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 27, 2005 7:59 am

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051127 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051127 1200 051128 0000 051128 1200 051129 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.7N 32.0W 29.1N 26.5W 29.6N 17.8W 30.4N 6.2W
BAMM 26.7N 32.0W 28.7N 28.3W 28.9N 22.9W 27.9N 15.3W
A98E 26.7N 32.0W 29.6N 28.3W 30.4N 23.6W 30.4N 17.2W
LBAR 26.7N 32.0W 29.1N 27.8W 29.8N 21.8W 29.5N 13.4W
SHIP 45KTS 46KTS 43KTS 37KTS
DSHP 45KTS 46KTS 43KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051129 1200 051130 1200 051201 1200 051202 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 5.4E 39.7N 27.8E 34.7N 44.3E 28.5N 51.9E
BAMM 29.2N 5.3W 38.1N 8.3E 45.5N 15.6E 49.0N 20.2E
A98E 30.3N 12.2W 29.1N 9.8W 26.7N 6.0W 27.6N 3.3E
LBAR 30.4N 3.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.7N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 23.6N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 53DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 38.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 60NM

Delta refuses to die as it's a little more stronger this morning 45kts.
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#138 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Nov 27, 2005 8:47 am

NOW, THIS IS GETTING INTERESTING!
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#139 Postby hicksta » Sun Nov 27, 2005 12:04 pm

Can it make it to 75 mph
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#140 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 27, 2005 2:08 pm

TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AL282005) ON 20051127 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051127 1800 051128 0600 051128 1800 051129 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.3N 29.7W 30.0N 23.0W 29.9N 13.0W 31.8N 1.1W
BAMM 28.3N 29.7W 29.6N 25.2W 29.0N 18.6W 28.8N 9.4W
A98E 28.3N 29.7W 30.6N 25.4W 31.2N 19.8W 31.7N 12.0W
LBAR 28.3N 29.7W 30.0N 24.8W 30.2N 17.9W 30.2N 8.7W
SHIP 60KTS 58KTS 49KTS 38KTS
DSHP 60KTS 58KTS 49KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051129 1800 051130 1800 051201 1800 051202 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.1N 9.8E 40.0N 32.5E 33.5N 47.8E 27.5N 57.6E
BAMM 31.9N .4W 40.3N 9.8E 46.5N 16.0E 49.5N 21.5E
A98E 31.9N 5.9W 30.8N 3.5W 30.5N .7E 33.6N 12.8E
LBAR 33.6N 1.3E .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 28KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 29.7W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 25.0N LONM12 = 33.8W DIRM12 = 46DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 37.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 450NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 120NM

Oh my almost a hurricane 60kts.Tremendous comeback.
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