Feedback requested

[senorpepr]

As the 2005 season nears the close, I’m looking back at the threads that I maintain on the Tropical Analysis forum and I request your feedback to improve upon next year’s threads. Does something not make sense or do you wish to see something else? Would you like to see another thread in addition to the ones I have listed below? Let me know!

A) “Date” and storm brought to you by the letter “?”
I’ve maintained these posts for a few years now. I’ll continue posting which numbered tropical storm we were on during a given date and what day that storm formed on over the past 155 years. I’ll also break down some comparisons to climatology. The only change I have so far concerns climatology. Not only the 155-year and 30-year averages will be included, but also the 10-year average to show a more “recent” trend. Next year will not include past storms with the same beginning letter. (Located at the bottom along with landfall locations)

B) ”Year” vs 30- and 154-year climo
I’ve been maintaining this thread for a little while as well. Basically, it is a summary of the above posts through a given year. Concerning changes planned so far, as stated above in section A, I plan on adding data for a 10-year average to show the more recent trend. Also, next year will not include the ranking of earliest dates on record for a given tropical storm to form. I only included that because of this year’s record pace. In the event that 2006 is fast-paced like this year… I’ll include it.

C) ”Year” vs Net Tropical Cyclone Index vs Climatology
I started this thread this year by request. Essentially it lists the Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Index on a weekly basis and compares it to climatology. Furthermore, it forecasts out what the end of the season will be like. Planned changes for next year will adjust the position of data to make it less cluttered.

D) ”Year” vs Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index vs Climatology
I plan on starting this thread next year. It will list the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index on a weekly basis and will compare it to climatology.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I heavily enjoyed reading your analysis on climatology, ACE, and NTC Index...
Keep it for next year

[WindRunner]

Definately keep these going.

Those little changes sound good so far.
You might be able to combine C & D into one, though.

[senorpepr]

Definately keep these going.

Those little changes sound good so far.
You might be able to combine C & D into one, though.

That is definately something I have been considering. I idea popped into my head early today. I've been playing with my über-huge Excel spreadsheet to see how I can include it. Chances are, I'll add ACE to the NTC thread.

Thanks for your comments. Same to you, Tampa Bay Hurricane

[wxmann_91]

Keep these coming, I love these threads! Thanks for all the work this year you have done senorpepr compiling and organizing the information!

[senorpepr]

Keep these coming, I love these threads! Thanks for all the work this year you have done senorpepr compiling and organizing the information!

I appreciate the comments... thanks.

[senorpepr]

Here's a sneak peak at the format for the NTC/ACE thread for next year:

Code: Select all

1.8%            NS      H       IH      NSD     HD      IHD     NTC     Name
Jun 01          0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Dec Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Apr Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Jun Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Aug Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Sep Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Oct Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Climo Curve     0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
                        
ACE             0.0000 x 10^4   Ranked: 156/156                  
% Season        0.00%           Below-average                  
% To date       0.00%           Below-average

[WindRunner]

Very nice


And check your PMs.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here's a sneak peak at the format for the NTC/ACE thread for next year:

Code: Select all

1.8%            NS      H       IH      NSD     HD      IHD     NTC     Name
Jun 01          0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Dec Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Apr Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Jun Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Aug Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Sep Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Oct Fcst        0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
Climo Curve     0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.00    0.0%    N/A
                        
ACE             0.0000 x 10^4   Ranked: 156/156                  
% Season        0.00%           Below-average                  
% To date       0.00%           Below-average

Visually efficient and readily comparable- I like it...

[quandary]

They were fun... until there weren't anymore storms... then the statistics got sortof boring

[senorpepr]

They were fun... until there weren't anymore storms... then the statistics got sortof boring

I'm hoping to be able to come up with all sorts of random facts and forecast stats (etc) each week to help with the "lulls".

[senorpepr]

Visually efficient and readily comparable- I like it...

Thanks for the comments!

[P.K.]

Those threads are good. When I get a chance I'm going to plug the season totals into R (Much better for stats than Excel) and look at the distribution. Then I'll be able to work out the probability of getting as many storms as there have been this year based on past seasons using the probability distribution.