Complacency Lingers After Wilma Here in S. Florida

[gatorcane]

Thanks BocaGirl, I think your post was very well-written and I agree with your points. FCI, I also agree with you that the complacency has lessened here, however, I think many still think they have lived through a major hurricane when in fact they have not. That is all.

[djtil]

run for your lives...we are all going to die.

i dont get your point either.

[artist]

I agree some think they lived through a major - not enough will hear that the winds were only cat 1 and will think they can handle a larger storm and will be complacent. I wish the media made a big deal out of how low the winds actually were so people would be aware of what they actually experienced. Though there will always be those that would not believe that it was only a cat 1 in many areas.

[vbhoutex]

I'm on the outside looking in here. I understand the concerns and think they are legitimate. However, there are areas where apparently microbursts or something similar occurred where the winds were obviously, even if only for a few seconds(which is all it takes for damage to occur), CAT2 or CAT3 in a few instances. Unfortunately the general public will not hear about those or and as stated by some will assume they have been through a major. There is no clear solution to this "problem" except massive educational efforts on the part of the NWS, NHC, etc.(even forums such as this) to help the general puvblic understand the "truth" of what happened to the majority of the people. JMHO

[caribepr]

I think there will always be this problem, regardless of the cat of a storm. Look at the places where Andrew and Hugo roared through. In the years from then to now, people have bought and built. Some may heed warnings, others won't. We've seen, on this board of supposedly better informed people than most, where awareness is much higher, members who *stayed when they shouldn't have* and had regrets.

I think there is a large element of humanity that live in very *civilized* areas, maybe the sorts that pay a lot of money to go on adventure holidays, that experience the world in a Disneyesque fashion - i.e. - nature is not able to impact "me" and those other scenarios are sad but not real. Then someone dies on Everest, or whitewater rafting, or hurricane chasing and I have to think that among their last thoughts are, NO!!! Not me!
How many of us really can comprehend what has happened this year, if not living there, or a volunteer, in the Gulf Coast states or Florida, or the earthquake zone? I know, I can't. Luckily, I DO know the power of nature, and am prepared as possible, knowing that all the preps may be for naught, but at least I know. And WHY do I know? Because of experience. It's real to me. But for so many it isn't. Some will believe without experiencing and prepare, others will scoff and either say, this can't happen or I've been through a bad one and it wasn't that bad. Human nature, I guess. The next years, if things go as it seems they might, are going to be very hard for so many (and what about the years of recovery for those from THIS year, regardless of what Cat they thought a storm was - if you have no home, or have lost family members or friends, it really isn't much of an issue).
Ok, sorry for the rant, but I'm still in a sort of reeling from reality mode here...

[fci]

Great post, Caribe and well put.
"Rant" anytime you want!

[JPmia]

I'm on the outside looking in here. I understand the concerns and think they are legitimate. However, there are areas where apparently microbursts or something similar occurred where the winds were obviously, even if only for a few seconds(which is all it takes for damage to occur), CAT2 or CAT3 in a few instances. Unfortunately the general public will not hear about those or and as stated by some will assume they have been through a major. There is no clear solution to this "problem" except massive educational efforts on the part of the NWS, NHC, etc.(even forums such as this) to help the general puvblic understand the "truth" of what happened to the majority of the people. JMHO

I agree...complacency is not apparant these days...especially if you have been without power for 2 weeks and a day like me. I've heard this many times since the storm "if the next storm is stronger than Wilma...I am out of here." I am considering that as well, not b/c of the storm itself but for the many weeks afterward.
Btw, the ice and water lines after the storm were mostly created by FEMA and the State promising the County there would be deliveries at numerous locations around the County that day...the County advertised it on TV...and people got in line. I was one of them, thinking it couldn't hurt to have more ice since it was melting fast! I was also prepared for the storm. If you tell people to get in line for ice they will...you should have the stuff available.

Finally, here are a couple of articles. We should expect a stronger building code, more facilities with generators, and an insurance hike next year. Florida is quickly becoming a very expensive state to live in.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... mailedlink

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13085880.htm

Here's to the 2005 season. I've got laundry to do.

[T'Bonz]

I agree some think they lived through a major - not enough will hear that the winds were only cat 1 and will think they can handle a larger storm and will be complacent. I wish the media made a big deal out of how low the winds actually were so people would be aware of what they actually experienced. Though there will always be those that would not believe that it was only a cat 1 in many areas.

I think it's more likely when they finish their research, that it will be classified as having been a cat 2 in Broward.

Having said that, if a 1 or a 2 is THIS bad, I guarantee you many will leave for a 3, 4 or 5. I always said I'd leave for a 4 or 5. But after this, which appears to have been a 2, I'm OUTTA here for a 3 or above, not just a 4 or above.

[bobbutts]

You would have been surprised to see how it was in Charlotte County before Wilma.

She was not to strike the FL coast for another 4 days and the stores had a hard time keeping water on the shelves. Home Depot was a mad house also.....we didn't know where Wilma was to make landfall and everyone was getting ready 4 days ahead.

There wasn't much complacency here. We learned from Charley.

I think there's still complacency or maybe just lack of awareness here as far as surge goes. We are scared of the wind now, but alot of people would try to ride out a a cat 2 or 3 (stocked with generator, water, food, and plywood). At < 10' elevation thinking that since they made it through cat 4 Charley it's no prob.

[f5]

most people just experience tropical storm force winds which in the human mindset they think they are experienceing CAT 1 winds.This year folks along the northern gulf coast really experience hurricane force winds for the first time beacuse of the wide windfield.

[Chigger_Lopez]

Yeah, people may say they are leaving if they see a storm stronger than WIlma coming their way. Problem is that most in S. FLorida still think that Wilma was a CAT 2/3 when it passed over their home. Many folks will not board up again next time a Cat 2 or Cat 3 comes their way b/c they feel they just weathered WIlma with some tree limbs torn down and no broken windows. I think people really will be complacent due to a lack of info. Most folks dont read Storm2k all night like us frieks!

[Zackiedawg]

I think what we really need is to ween people off of the 'categories' and start talking about other characteristics of hurricanes which can widely vary the types of damage and breadth of winds they will produce. The categories weren't necessarily intended to be an end-all for the public, nor were they intended to completely predict the nature of a given storm. They were a tool used by weather scientists to try to classify the types of damage they would find based on the known windspeed of the storm.

What the Saffir Simpson scale doesn't consider is much more important than what it does consider. One example: storms like the super-strong Cat 4 Charley are remembered by a mere handful of Floridians while Cat 1-2 storms like Frances and Wilma are on the lips of almost all Floridians.

If more people were taught about all the characteristics of a tropical storm, they might be able to better prepare and have more realistic expectations of the impact of the storm. Excluding weather geeks like us, most of the public doesn't pay attention to the size of the eye as a measure of windspeed in the eye wall - I can't tell you how many times I heard people say how strong Wilma was because of the really big eye...while they think of Charley as that tiny little thing on the west coast that never produced so much as a cloud in the sky in Palm Beach county.

The public needs to understand that a small eye will likely result in more damage, but over a more concentrated area. They need to understand that a storm like Wilma may have only been a Category 2, but it impacted nearly 1/3 of the peninsula with hurricane winds - so there was no sneaking away unaffected by being away from landfall. They need to know that storms the size of Wilma, Katrina, Ivan, Frances, etc...when they are running cat 3 or 4 can produce more storm surge than a small, intense Cat 4 or 5 storm can (how many people underestimated storm surge with Katrina because she wasn't the same 'category' as Camille? Another example of the danger of relying on categories).

And people need to learn to respect even a Category 1 storm...which can produce gusts to Cat 3 strength, microbursts of intense horizontal winds, and tornadoes with winds over 200mph. And even in a Cat 1, a piece of debris travelling at 85MPH can take out an unprotected window and compromise an entire house, leaving interior damage, or worse, lifting off the roof.

I don't quite agree that complacency exists around Florida - I think people are taking storms very seriously after last year's 4 punches, and watching Katrina's aftermath...then living through Wilma's aftermath themselves. However I would agree that the mass majority of people are still highly uneducated and uninformed, and though well-meaning, may fall into the trap of relying on the category of a storm to decide how much to prepare. If a Cat 4 or 5 were heading for South Florida, I think you'd see mass preparation and evacuation. But a large and dangerous Cat 2 may have people preparing too much for the aftermath and not enough for the actual landfall impact...using Wilma as their barometer for what a Cat 2 storm will do. And a growing Cat 2, coming off the Atlantic in a frontal attack on Southeast Florida, with gusts to Cat 4 and containing several tornadoes, will still unfortunately take too many people by surprise.

[kometes]

Having said that, if a 1 or a 2 is THIS bad, I guarantee you many will leave for a 3, 4 or 5. I always said I'd leave for a 4 or 5. But after this, which appears to have been a 2, I'm OUTTA here for a 3 or above, not just a 4 or above.

How exactly is that going to work? There are three arteries out of south Florida. The evacuation disaster waiting to happen will make the Houston problems look like a queue at the local Walmart. Sadly, people here are poor drivers and I-95 is a parking lot when it simply rains. I just can't imagine what an evacuation will look like.

That said, the local gov'ts need to organize local shelters now so that we have local places to go for the duration of a big storm. The fact that doesn't seem to be happening lends to the assertion that complacency is still a problem.

[HurriCat]

Here's my 2 cents from Orlando. First, no matter how bad we ever get hit, or what we witness elsewhere, there are going to be hundreds of thousands still living on the coasts. There will be a great many of these who just will not take future threats seriously until too late. Sorry, but I just don't have the time or tears for someone like that. If they are that dumb or stubborn - oh well. A some point the issue becomes one of natural selection - or "just too stupid to survive". Second, after the Frances "evacuation" experience, it is obvious to me that Florida cannot be evacuated in any reasonable amount of time. We will take our chances in our house here in Orlando. After Frances, and witnessing that Galveston evac-nightmare (which wasn't a massacre only because the storm went elsewhere), there will only be more people more determined to wait and see should a storm threaten. It sounds terrible, but not having Wilma kill thousands of those morons who stayed down there will only make more people likely to gamble with their lives and those of their families.

I'll stay, then, not from stubborness or stupidity, but just knowing that this overcrowded heck-hole is just too full. I can't get out when the big one does come. To do so, I'd have to be driving or flying out about a week or more every time a storm even looks close to us.

[T'Bonz]

How exactly is that going to work? There are three arteries out of south Florida.

Who would be stupid enough to take the main arteries?

Florida back roads all the way. Normally they would take a few extra hours, but in a time like this, would be perfect. 27 up to the lake and then back roads up to Tampa, where I could then catch 75 up to junction with 10 and over to my kid's house.

Would take a) good map (I have some) and b) back roads. Only sheeple go with the herd.

[Derek Ortt]

Miami knows how to handle an evacuation. More than a million evacuated in just a few hours during Andrew

[MGC]

What makes Miami so great at evacuation? Every other major city on the coast that had to evacuate had major traffic jams even little ole Mississippi had gridlock at times......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

what happens is that many here know to just go to a shelter a few miles inland. In addition, much of the region is not tidal surge prone at all, really only Biscayne Bay. The max surge from a cat 5 on the ocean side is about 10 feet, about what it is at Cayman. Therefore, lauderdale to our north only has limited evacuations on the immediate coastline.

Also, in storms like Andrew, some evacuate to Key West, which is where I would have went had I had to leave at the last minute for Jeanne (I think some used that for Frances). This gives an extra escape route

Also, we have gridlock 24/7, so people here are quite used to severe traffic jams.

[wbug1]

I'm new to this forum but I've been following this hurricane stuff for a couple years.

This video from Miami Beach, FL of Wilma (the top one, you'll need Windows Media Player 9 and internet explorer 6 to view) shows what looks like over 120 mph for sure. I've looked at a fair amount of hurricane video, including Jeanne, Frances, Katrina and Charley. If Wilma was a Cat 1 then Jeanne was a tropical storm.

http://www.ultimatechase.com/Hurricane_Video.htm

Note all the flipped vehicles at the end of the video. You can also see the pics of the vehicles in Theiss's chase account page. The flipped vehicles were right along the coastline where you would expect the most intense winds. I believe Wilma was intensifying back to a Cat 3 at this point. I can imagine that more than 170 mph would be needed to flip the low profile fairly low drag area type cars seen here. Probably the wind must have been focused somehow from the surrounding buildings. A nearby parking garage in the same area was destroyed.

http://www.stormvideo.com has a fair selection of free videos of hurricane Katrina. Many show roofs ripping apart and flying metal, again more intense than Jeanne (in Gulfport anyway). I like the one that shows three 40 foot long pieces of metal come off the top of parked 18 wheelers and go flying.

http://www.stormvideo.com/05/charley2.wmv Great Charley vid. Looks like people were caught off guard and didn't put their garbage bins inside. Off course that doesn't matter so much when your roof comes off.

[wayoutfront]

What makes Miami so great at evacuation? Every other major city on the coast that had to evacuate had major traffic jams even little ole Mississippi had gridlock at times......MGC

well Miami has HWY 95
The turnpike
and 75