Snow for Texas

[Portastorm]

What the heck ... it's the last day of a holiday weekend and traffic looks slow here, so I'll start discussion. You Texans, check out the 12z run today of the GFS.

Snow for a lot of Texas on Dec. 6th. Talk amongst yourselves!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Check out days 9 and 10!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow...looks like it could get cold and wintery in 9-10 days...but then again it is a little too early to make a call...especially since the GFS likes to flip-flop, but if it did happen, then it would be pretty cool. Its hard to imagine cold and snow though when it is 82 degrees here in Houston today.

[Lowpressure]

That depicts a major south and east coast event. I have heard some rumbling about this but it is 9-10 days out, so keep it in perspective at this point.

[Portastorm]

That depicts a major south and east coast event. I have heard some rumbling about this but it is 9-10 days out, so keep it in perspective at this point.

Oh I know ... it's like I said, I posted reference more for discussion than anything else. One run of the GFS can be taken with a grain of salt. But couple it with the increasing talk of a major cold outbreak for December into the Plains and East and I find some interest.

The last two days, however, the GFS wasn't biting on the cold outbreak ... but the 6z run today hinted at it and the 12z run took it hook, line, and sinker! Will be interesting to see what later runs say as well the Euro and Canadian.

[AL Chili Pepper]

That's a big change from a couple of days ago, when it showed basically a zonal flow through 384 hours. From what it's showing now and if it holds true, we might even see a few flurries around here. Nice!

[vbhoutex]

It will be interesting to watch for sure. My interest is peaked. IF it verifies we are definitely looking at some cold temps even here in Houston and possibly some frozen precip not too far to our North. Certainly will not be holding my breath, but will definitely be watching.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just looked at the 12Z GFS run on accuweather.com professional, and I looked at the snow/rain/ice areas that it is predicting...and it has snow all the way to Houston and the Gulf coast on Dec. 6th...it even shows a little bit of accumulation possible, this would be crazy if it happened, eerily similar to the snowstorm last christmas! I sure hope the GFS turns out to be right with this one..it would make it feel more like the holidays.

[TS Zack]

Very Interesting... The GFS usually doesn't do good in the Medium Range, so lets wait for some more models to pick-up on this or a couple runs.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I checked the accuweather site for the next 15 days and most of the forecasts highs look to be in the 60's to even a few 70 degree days and 40's at night(ETX and NTX). Is this the same site you mentioned?
My husband and I have a concession business set up to sell hot chocolate, coffee, and apple cider at a local drive thru christmas light display. We set up each weekend, so I have been watching the accuweather forecasts for the 15 day outlook especially for the weekends. I have been hoping for some much cooler temps to put people in the spirit. Hard to sell Hot drinks when it is 80's in the day and 50's or 60's at night. So I'll settle for some cooler weather, cold and snow would be great!!! But never get my hopes up. So by chance could this be a possible weekend event? Or usher in some colder temps for awhile?
I'm not very good with understanding all of these maps and graphs and professional discussions, so I do appreciate the laymans version of things. So I thank you for any updates on a possible cold event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I checked the accuweather site for the next 15 days and most of the forecasts highs look to be in the 60's to even a few 70 degree days and 40's at night(ETX and NTX). Is this the same site you mentioned?
My husband and I have a concession business set up to sell hot chocolate, coffee, and apple cider at a local drive thru christmas light display. We set up each weekend, so I have been watching the accuweather forecasts for the 15 day outlook especially for the weekends. I have been hoping for some much cooler temps to put people in the spirit. Hard to sell Hot drinks when it is 80's in the day and 50's or 60's at night. So I'll settle for some cooler weather, cold and snow would be great!!! But never get my hopes up. So by chance could this be a possible weekend event? Or usher in some colder temps for awhile?
I'm not very good with understanding all of these maps and graphs and professional discussions, so I do appreciate the laymans version of things. So I thank you for any updates on a possible cold event.

Accuweather does give 15-day forecasts, but you can also subscribe to a service called Accuweather Professional. With the professional service you get access to numerous models and expert discussions, etc. I was referring to the GFS 12Z model run that I looked at off of the accuweather professional site, not their actual 15-day forecast. Their actual forecast changes around with time, so I would guess that if a cold event becomes more likely it would be reflected in their forecasts down the road. Also, as we all know the computer models will also change; so really it is just going to have to be a wait and see game over the next week or two to see if an extreme event that the GFS is currently alluding to does in fact play out (which I hope it does). As for this being a weekend event...it currently does not look like it will be (Coldest air should begin to arrive Monday, Dec. 5th), but then again, this could also change during the next week or so.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 18Z model run is just as cold, but includes less snow and is about 12-24 hrs. slower in the arrival of the arctic air. Still looks quite chilly though.

[jeff]

FWIW, the GFS was hinting at an arctic intursion Tu and Wed last week then lost the outbreak Thurs through Saturday and now brings one heck of a surge into TX. I have noted this trend with the GFS before...its initial forecast it usually trends back towards after a few flip flops.

It could get quite chilly for sure, but I am not yet ready to buy into the snowstorm it is showing for much of the state of TX around the 7th and 8th. Two big snowstorms within a year across TX would be quite unusual, but stranger things have happened I suppose.

Will watch with interest and see what flip flops the model displays in the coming days.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Thanks for the info and update on the possible cold event that might be coming. I'll have to check back often to see if this thread is updated. It would be nice if the thread's title comes true if not this time, maybe sometime this winter. However I'd like to see more snow here in ETX than down around the coast. It is unheard of that they got more snow than we did last winter. LOL And on top of that they got a White Christmas-UGGGGGGHHHHHHHH Weather is So UNFAIR!!!
I came so close to getting my birthday wish to have either a white birthday or a white christmas the next day.....Oh well 40 and still counting. Maybe 41 will be my lucky year. LOL
Keep the snow updates coming!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

If nothing else it looks like we will some fairly cold temperatures. I sure hope the cold weather returns soon, picked out the christmas tree in shorts today!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I wonder when we'll see the NWS in their FD's talk about this. Maybe by this Thursday if it looks promissing.

So where is the rain /snow line? And how long of a cold snap could we be talking about IF and a BIG IF these models carry through? Is it something that could be a classic 1983 or 1989 where we have several little Arctic fronts which keeps us below normal and then whamo, the record breaking surge?

Bastardi still thinks a 1989 scenerio looks promisng. That is one of his analog years for what he is seeing for December.

As always, keep us posted Jeff. You do a great job.

[Johnny]

I just want some cold dreary weather....snow would be great too.

Very interesting to say the least. I sure hope the GFS is catching on to something.

[Wpwxguy]

The GFS is continuing to hint at something exciting. Could be a fun 7-10 days.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

[Kelarie]

Okay, I am not going to get my hopes up. Not going to get excited. Even thought I would love to see this type of weather here. I am SOOOO tired of 87 degree weather at the end of November. Okay enough of my not -removed-

Ugh. Please let it do something other than be hot and icky.

please snow*

[PTrackerLA]

Doesn't look like the snow will make it to the gulf coast according to the latest run. It is still a long ways out and with the rarity of snow around here I'm not getting my hopes out.

[jeff]

Latest GFS (12Z) run is not as aggresive with the cold air and precip. 540 dm thickness remains over N TX with 850mb 0C line not much further south. Could see some frozen precip in the wrap around shield over OK into N TX.

One thing is for sure the guidance will change over the next few days, but the weather does indeed look interesting for the southern plains next week.