Here we go again. The NHC has again failed to upgrade a system, leaving us with our fourth 70mph tropical storm of the season (following Arlene, Cindy & Franklin). They even said that Delta may have "briefly reached hurricane strength" in between advisories yesterday...just like Emily may have briefly reached Cat 5 strength in between advisorises on that storm! They seem so reluctant to upgrade this year (whether it be to name a system or upgrade its status). We have all heard the talk about Cindy likely being a hurricane before its Louisiana landfall. IF Cindy WAS a hurricane AND Delta DID briefly become one yesterday, that would mean the 2005 season has seen FIFTEEN hurricanes, knocking the old record of 12 completely out of the water.
--Lou
Yet ANOTHER 70 mph Tropical Storm!!!!!
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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DoctorHurricane2003
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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I see what you're saying, of course, but don't blame the NHC as though this is some kind of conspiracy to keep the hurricane numbers down, because that reminds me of when I see people on this board accuse the NHC of artificially inflating season total numbers by naming questionable tropical storms (notably in 2002) just to exaggerate the need for more funding from Congress.
If Delta ever was a hurricane, the NHC will upgrade it post-season, but more likely, it's a storm like Peter in 2003. 74mph isn't just a randomly selected cutoff windspeed - it's an important threshold, and even if a tropical storm strengthens into a deep system (Delta's got like a 980mb pressure), it takes some pretty specific conditions to allow it to become a bonafide hurricane. Usually, a legitimate hurricane can sustain itself for the entire period between advisories.
If Delta ever was a hurricane, the NHC will upgrade it post-season, but more likely, it's a storm like Peter in 2003. 74mph isn't just a randomly selected cutoff windspeed - it's an important threshold, and even if a tropical storm strengthens into a deep system (Delta's got like a 980mb pressure), it takes some pretty specific conditions to allow it to become a bonafide hurricane. Usually, a legitimate hurricane can sustain itself for the entire period between advisories.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Aslkahuna
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What sort of data are you going to update Delta with? There's no recon that far out so all you have is a satellite estimate which is not reliable enough to do an upgrade in status if it's a minimal change. The job of the forecasters at NHC is to best characterize the system not to try and break records. If post storm analysis shows it was a hurricane then they will upgrade on the Annual report..
Steve
Steve
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JamesFromMaine2
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