MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2469
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0811 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH COASTAL MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 270211Z - 270415Z
   
   A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST/TORNADO IS EXPECTED
   TO PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER SERN LA AND SPREADING INTO COASTAL MS.
   THE THREAT/COVERAGE APPEARS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS ACROSS SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS.
   THE LINE IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 20 KT. EAST OF THE LINE A FEW STORMS
   WITH MORE DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS CONTINUE LIFTING NWD. MOST OF THE
   STORMS ARE N OF A WARM FRONT WHERE A NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER
   EXISTS. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY
   STRONG ALONG THE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE
   STORMS ARE PROBABLY NOT REALIZING THE SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM
   DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STABLE LAYER. MOREOVER INSTABILITY AND
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN LIMITED. STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE
   ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.
   HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SERVE
   AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
   
   29779006 30359002 30798926 30658842 29898830 29738886
   29288974

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 270823Z - 271215Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED
   
   FREEZING RAIN..WITH RATES RANGING FROM 0.05-0.1 INCH/HOUR EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP BY 09-11Z FROM S-N ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN INTO
   PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN WI.  DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION SHOULD
   RANGE FROM 2-3 HOURS...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO EITHER RAIN
   OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  LONGER DURATIONS OF FREEZING SHOULD BE OVER
   PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WRN MN...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   SLOWER TO RISE ABOVE 32 F.
   
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSWLY
   LLJ NOSING INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.  RAPID AND WIDESPREAD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN WI TO SERN MN AND NWRN IA
   SINCE 06Z IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT
   SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION.  SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES
   EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SLOWLY RISE REACHING VALUES ABOVE 32 F AFTER 12Z.  HOWEVER...PRIOR
   TO 12Z...STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ABOVE THE SUB-FREEZING
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE
   FOR FREEZING RAIN AS PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
   SPREADS NWD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
   
   44659630 45479636 45949597 46089336 46149185 46058988
   45818882 45248874 44958912 44488997 44519204 44579392
   44409591

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 270932Z - 271130Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
   OF SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH
   12-13Z...IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED.  PRIMARY THREATS WOULD
   BE FOR TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AT 0915Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   EXTENDING FROM SWRN AL...TO THE NORTH OF MOB...SWD TO OFFSHORE NEAR
   65 ESE BVE.  RADAR DATA SHOWED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS
   EMBEDDED ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS...WITH LINE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
   EAST AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS TRACKING NEWD.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
   CONTINUED TO INDICATED A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER INLAND REGIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SUGGESTING THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
   SHOULD BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WHERE THE ONGOING
   LINE OF STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INGEST A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING NEAR MOB AND OFFSHORE MAY BE INDICATIVE
   OF THIS SCENARIO.
   
   IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT CAN MOVE ONSHORE OR NEAR THE
   COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED
   POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING
   WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY WITH NWD
   EXTENT AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE AIR
   MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   30278772 30588768 30688741 30768696 30698639 30368633
   30098636 29968648 30138753

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1158 AM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CENTRAL AND SERN KS INTO N CENTRAL AND
   NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271758Z - 272000Z
   
   WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FROM PARTS OF THE NERN QUARTER OF OK
   INTO SERN KS FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF P28 CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
   STRONG DYNAMICS MOVE INTO W TX INTO WRN OK.  AT 16Z...SURFACE
   DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU JUST SW OF ICT...PNC...BETWEEN OKC
   AND SNL TO GLE.  VERY STRONG SWLY SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE DRYLINE
   INDICATES DRYLINE BULGE WILL PRESS NEWD TOWARDS THE TUL
   AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING NWD AROUND CNU.  VERY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
   FLOW IS SLY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AT 45-50 KT AND EXIT REGION OF
   MID/UPR LEVEL JET OF 115 KT/150 KT RESPECTIVELY...IS NOW INTO SWRN
   OK.  THUS...STRONG DYNAMICS/FRONTAL LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
   ENHANCED ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF ADVANCING DRYLINE BULGE FOR RAPIDLY
   DEVELOPING BROKEN SQUALL LINE. GIVEN AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WITH
   EFFECTIVE LAYER HELICITY NEAR 250 M2/S2 OVER NERN OK AND LIMITED
   INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO
   -4...ISOLATED SHALLOW SUPERCELLS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   35629700 35859700 36139699 36719712 37099731 37329754
   37719761 38039686 38149631 37999572 37549525 36949501
   36219508 35869522 35449563 35299593 35289634 35319660
   35439683

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SW NEB
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 271937Z - 272330Z
   
   A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
   ACROSS WRN KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES
   DEVELOPING AMIDST BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS.
   
   STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH DEEPENING 985 MB SFC LOW AT 19Z. ON NW PERIPHERY OF
   CYCLONE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600-800 MB/ IN PROXIMITY OF WEAK
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /INCLUDING PLENTIFUL CG LIGHTNING CNTRL KS
   INTO SCNTRL NEB/ WILL LEAD TO EWD TRANSITION OF WELL ORGANIZED
   DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS SW NEB/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE AKRON CO/GOODLAND KS
   AREAS AS OF 18Z-19Z. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC PRECIP
   TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   OCCUR FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF NW KS/SW NEB THIS
   AFTERNOON. ONSET OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE IN LOCALES
   ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...INCLUDING THE MCCOOK
   NEB/HILL CITY KS AREAS.
   
   IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SNOW RATES...RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER AND
   GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA ALREADY DEPICTING N/NE WINDS OF 50 KTS
   JUST OFF THE SURFACE /750M-2 KM LAYER/...A TREND THE 18Z RUC
   SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 60+ KTS BY 00Z. THESE INCREASINGLY
   STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   38770208 39260221 40120222 40790189 41210100 41080029
   40519984 39799972 38979961 38649990 38320038 38150086
   38380174

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NERN TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271948Z - 272145Z
   
   WE ARE MONITORING AREA FOR TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES STRONG ASCENT NOW
   OCCURRING AHEAD OF SURFACE DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS SWD FROM CENTRAL OK
   INTO CENTRAL TX.  THERE IS A BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS
   FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN TX WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
   AXIS COINCIDING WITH 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET.  IN ADDITION...BAND OF
   MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDS NEWD FROM MAF - S CENTRAL OK
   ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 100-115 KT MID LEVEL JET.  THUS...STRONG JET
   COUPLING...IMPROVING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...IS BECOMING MORE
   APPARENT OVER THIS REGION. AIR MASS IS ALSO DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY
   WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH CORRESPONDING MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   EXPECT LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS FROM ROUGHLY E CENTRAL OK SWD/SWWD INTO NERN TX IN AREA OF
   STRONG CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN INCREASING
   INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD BE ASSOCIATED
   WITHIN/AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES FROM ERN OK/NERN TX INTO WRN
   AR/NWRN LA.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   32599635 33429604 34269584 34929584 35619588 35889592
   36309562 36369470 36189369 35579360 34839346 34269346
   33599357 32899387 32279451 31709558 31429673 31689680
   32099655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/FAR SE ND
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 272023Z - 280100Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/FAR SE ND THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND
   0.05-0.10 IN/HR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS.
   
   STEADY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING NWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
   ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING KS CYCLONE. COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS
   IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ERN SD AND SE ND WEST OF STATIONARY
   FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
   MAINTENENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER /AROUND 850 MB/ INTO THIS
   EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...FREEZING RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
   THE ABERDEEN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
   TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...18Z RUC/09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST
   PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
   I-29...AND NORTH OF I-90 IN SD.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   44109964 44909953 45649887 46059832 46249768 46249722
   46169676 45669653 45019682 44499719 43869762 43589863
   43629919

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...
   
   VALID 272050Z - 272245Z
   
   AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR WRN INTO
   CENTRAL MO.
   
   SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NNEWD THRU CENTRAL KS.
   STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0 TO 3.0 MB/2 HRS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER
   NERN KS INTO NWRN MO AS COLD FRONT/SURFACE DRYLINE MOVES NEWD INTO
   THIS AREA.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS MARION...
   MORRIS AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN KS JUST E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE
   POINT. STRONG FORCING IS APPARENT WITH 40-50 KT SWLY SURFACE FLOW
   BEHIND THE DRYLINE ENHANCING ASCENT IS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT.
   
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR POSING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..MCCARTHY.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   36489612 36929637 37389675 37709710 38679794 39169759
   39359720 39929586 40259499 40179301 39099227 37969220
   37299202 36539201 36459359 36439464 36489554 36429598

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB/SW IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272129Z - 272330Z
   
   AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW
   IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR LARGE
   HAIL/ISOLD TORNADOES AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.
   
   ON FRINGE OF SURGING DRY SLOT...BROKEN BAND OF MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH
   HISTORY OF TORNADOES/ISOLD LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO SPREAD E/NE
   ACROSS ERN KS AT MID AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
   RATHER MARGINAL ACROSS FAR SE NEB/SW IA...ESPECIALLY THE CASE WITH
   NWD EXTENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OWING TO DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW
   AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT TO BREACH EXISTING KS/MO TORNADO
   WATCHES INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA.
   
   LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
   AMPLE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...WITH ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBILITIES
   ATTRIBUTABLE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
   QUESTIONABLE AIRMASS QUALITY WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR A
   WATCH NWD INTO FAR SE NEB/SW IA AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE
   TO CLOSELY MONITOR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   40099652 40819661 41619564 41539421 41149308 40699305
   40659515 40109573

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0439 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR THROUGH SERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272239Z - 280015Z
   
   THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   ACROSS ERN AR AND SERN MO THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH
   CNTRL AR. THIS LINE WILL APPROACH THE ERN PART OF WW 876 BY 00Z.
   INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE LIMITED WITH ERN EXTENT INTO ERN AR AND
   SERN MO. HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING
   LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME. A
   100+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD
   THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   33389243 35329235 37539066 36938940 34529051 33219177

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...
   
   VALID 272307Z - 280100Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST INTO MID EVENING. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM W CNTRL
   THROUGH CNTRL AR NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EXTENDS
   FROM POPE COUNTY SWWD THROUGH HOWARD COUNTY IN W CNTRL AR. THE LINE
   IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NE AT 30 TO 35 KT.
   OTHER SEVERE STORMS EXTEND SWWD INTO NERN TX. THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL
   JET IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL
   AR. THIS REGION IS WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
   AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   THAT IS ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROUGH. MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
   IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
   AS SUPERCELLS MOVE THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL AR NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...
   
   33539432 34369422 36059285 35929193 34489237 33349353

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 875...877...
   
   VALID 272358Z - 280130Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST THIS
   EVENING INITIALLY OVER WRN MO AND EXTREME NE KS...SUBSEQUENTLY
   SPREADING INTO CNTRL MO.
   
   EARLY THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN N
   CNTRL KS EWD THROUGH NRN MO. DRY LINE HAS SURGED EWD AND EXTENDS
   FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN KS. AXIS OF STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG CURRENTLY EXTENDS
   ACROSS WRN MO. STORMS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE
   INTENSIFIED ACROSS SWRN MO. OTHER SEVERE STORMS PERSIST OVER NWRN
   MO. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH LEWP/BOW ECHO STRUCTURES.
   INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MO AND OVER THE
   ERN PART OF WW 877. HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT WITHIN
   THE EXIT REGION OF THE 100+ KT UPPER JET AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E
   ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   36529406 38189434 39079494 39679572 40499512 40209303
   38769165 36949136

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL/SE SD
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 280103Z - 280500Z
   
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NW KS/WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD
   THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR AMIDST VERY
   STRONG N/NW WINDS. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT INTENSE CNTRL PLAINS
   LOW BECOMING CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED THIS EVENING...WITH 984 MB
   SFC REFLECTION ACROSS CNTRL KS AT 01Z. AS THIS CYCLONE FURTHER
   DEEPENS THIS EVENING...SNOW BAND WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED
   ACROSS NW KS/CNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PER 21Z
   RUC/18Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE
   DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
   THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONSENSUS OF FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL NEB
   INTO SE SD...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW
   SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   NORTH PLATTE/GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA IN CONJUNCTION RED WILLOW NEB
   PROFILER DATA SAMPLING 50-60 KT N/NW WINDS IN 0.5-2.0 KM LAYER EARLY
   THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THIS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
   /HIGHLIGHTED BY 50+ KT SFC GUSTS AT GOODLAND/. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS EARLY
   THIS EVENING...WITH CORRIDOR OF N/NW 850MB WINDS OF 60-65 KTS ACROSS
   WCNTRL NEB/NW KS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST SNOW RATES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...
   
   43919983 43279745 41669757 39729935 39119977 39040064
   39310123 39960174 41400161 43190134 43780090

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND/NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 280152Z - 280615Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 0.05-0.10 HOURLY LIQUID
   EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WILL CONTINUE INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO SE ND/NW MN...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG
   A CORRIDOR FROM HURON SD TO FARGO ND/DETROIT LAKES MN.
   
   LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MUCH OF MN/ERN DAKOTAS WILL
   CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PERIPHERY OF DEEP CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE. WHERE
   THIS MOIST AXIS INTERCEPTS A SUFFICIENTLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
   ALONG/WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH...FREEZING RAIN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
   MUCH OF ECNTRL/NE SD SINCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS/
   POWER OUTAGES REPORTED. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ACROSS SE ND
   INTO FAR WCNTRL MN/NW MN. IN THIS CORRIDOR...00Z RUC SOUNDINGS
   DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AN ELEVATED 850 MB WARM/MELTING LAYER
   OVERSPREADING THE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SCENARIO IS
   FURTHER AFFIRMED BY LATEST 21Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48399503 48099406 46599571 45499615 44919627 44359680
   43879737 43819861 44029921 44749920 45689875 46649793

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO THROUGH EXTREME WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 280209Z - 280415Z
   
   ERN MO THROUGH WRN IL IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   STORMS CONTINUE FROM E CNTRL MO SWD INTO SERN MO. STRONGEST STORMS
   ARE CURRENTLY IN SHANNON AND TEXAS COUNTIES MOVING NEWD AT 30 KT.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF WW 877 AFTER 03Z. INSTABILITY
   IS CURRENTLY LIMITED OVER ERN MO INTO WRN IL. HOWEVER...A 70+ KT LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. FORECAST RUC
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE THE
   SURFACE. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD AS
   FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET SPREADS
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND
   COULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR AND STRONG FORCING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE
   STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE EWD OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...
   
   37968986 37449100 39259198 40179220 40149093 38708974

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN AR...NWRN LA...W
   TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 876...879...
   
   VALID 280244Z - 280415Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR...NERN TX AND NWRN LA
   WITH THE BEST THREAT EXPECTED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN AR. STORMS MAY
   BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN TN...WRN KY AND NWRN MS LATER THIS EVENING...
   AND THESE AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AR MOVING EAST AT
   AROUND 20 KT. MANY STORMS WITHIN THE LINE HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH
   LESS DISCRETE STRUCTURES THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOME
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS STILL PERSIST. ACTIVITY EXISTS WITHIN AN AXIS OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS ARE VERY LARGE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
   AROUND 400 M2/S2. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND REMAIN
   POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. FARTHER EAST...NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
   ACROSS ERN AR WITHIN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE
   70+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. INSTABILITY IS WEAKER IN THIS
   REGION...AND VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED. HOWEVER...WITH
   TIME SOME EWD DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THETA-E
   ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
   SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS MAY TAKE LONGER TO BECOME
   ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
   INTENSIFY LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
   
   34069064 36948910 36818803 35418854 34158939

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SERN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 883...

VALID 281310Z - 281445Z



THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 883 IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
SERN AL.

AT 13Z...REGIONAL RADARS AND LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUED TO SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND
OVER THE WRN FL PANHANDLE/SERN AL TO SWRN/WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
LOCATED WITHIN PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NNEWD PER IR
IMAGERY. 12Z SOUNDING AT TLH SUGGESTS THESE STORMS...AT LEAST OVER
LAND...ARE LIKELY ELEVATED.

THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO AID IN
WEAKENING THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BECOME
SURFACE BASED. STRONG SRH VALUES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE THAT
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281529Z - 281730Z

WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE
HOUR.
SQUALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NERN MS
SSWWD INTO SERN LA. HEATING/WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S. ADJUSTING THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM BAX
WITH THESE NUMBERS GIVES SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG
INDICATING THE RAPID DESTABILIZATION.

ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS STRONG WIND PROFILES PRESENT ACROSS THE SERN
STATES FROM CENTRAL MS THRU AL WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS 50-65 KT
ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS...THE INSTABILITY AND THAT 0-1KM
SHEAR IS 300-350 M2/S2...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
EITHER WITH DISCRETE CELLS FORMING WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE LINE OR WITH CELLS EMBEDDED AND INCREASING WITHIN THE
LINE.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005


ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX..

[Brent]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281652Z - 281845Z

WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.
STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO AREA WHERE HEATING/WARM
ADVECTION IS DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG WIND FIELDS CONTINUE
AHEAD OF LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY
ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE INTO
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S
INDICATING SOME LIMITS TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT AS COOLING
ALOFT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
PROCESS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND
1000 J/KG.

THUS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE CREATING SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 0-1KM HELICITY AROUND 350
M2/S2...OR FOR SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/28/2005


ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA/WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281718Z - 281845Z



POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO OR
TWO/ MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN INDIANA INTO OH.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH...WHICH COULD BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.

LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EWD AT AROUND 30
KTS ACROSS INDIANA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS NOTED IN VIS IMAGERY ACROSS KY/WRN OH MAY ALLOW FOR
MODEST DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE VERY
STRONG...WITH 50+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE PER 12Z
RAOBS/REGIONAL WSR-88D VAD DATA. ACCORDINGLY...PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LINE-EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT
ATTRIBUTABLE TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...WITH
EXTREMELY HIGH 0-1 KM SRH OF 500+ M2/S2 PER 12Z ILN RAOB/LATEST VAD
DATA.