The Artic Oscillation and NAO can easily change

[Jim Hughes]

Last week I wrote up a discussion in the Talkin Tropics Forum about the stratosphere/Ozone relationship with the cyclical nature of the AMO.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

I know some people found this either to complicated or to long. Well here is an example of what I was trying to get across. The stratosphere's temperatures/ozone levels effect the phases of many different oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. They load the dice in other words.

Here is an example from the 2004-05 winter bulletin last winter. You can clearly see in this temperature graph that the AO turns negative as the stratosphere warms. Hence colder weather down below.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... ure_10.gif
Jim

[cgstorm5]

Wow, what an interesting read on the previous thread how everything is interconnected! This has definitely changed my opinion on how much global warming is to blame. After you study all these other factors it makes me realize something more powerful is at work.

I was wondering if you could post some good links about space weather for beginners like me? Preferably a bit laymen but with basic physics included on the energy particles and solar polarity. I've been studying the synoptic-scale of things lately trying to understand what's behind the "hyperactive" tropical season. Also been searching for the reason behind the drought in the West and how do all these oscillations play into that. I'm not one to listen to these environmentalists claiming Westerners have depleted the water resources as the cause. All the hype and no clear-cut answers.

You've made me realize that we humans are just minute specks on the Earth that can't change the weather only the local environment. You put new meaning as to how much the Sun affects everything. Thanks for letting us understand the bigger picture.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

He name is GOD !!!!----------------JSB

[donsutherland1]

Jim,

There's little doubt, at least in my mind, that the AO and NAO are a function of more than SSTAs. The connection with the stratosphere is useful and may, in part, explain situations of NAO- when the Atlantic Tripole SSTA was not conducive.

Great links.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,

There's little doubt, at least in my mind, that the AO and NAO are a function of more than SSTAs. The connection with the stratosphere is useful and may, in part, explain situations of NAO- when the Atlantic Tripole SSTA was not conducive.

Great links.

Yes it could explain that. They all seem to be able to do some forcing on each other. So trying to figure out who is the engine and who is the caboose can be tough.

I believe this is where space weather might partially come in. I think the best way to understand, or at least think about new theories, is to observe what is going around you.

I wrote my discussion almost two weeks ago and the atmosphere is currently behaving just like I explained. The warm and cold trends in the east have changed as the stratosphere has changed.

We have recently been seeing a another warming trend at the 30 hPa, at level 65-90N.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... mb9065.gif

The cooler temperature anomalies, that you wrote about at mid month , for cities in the Northeast , have vanished. The SOI, which had a positive 30 day average, of + 13.7 , on 11/6 , has switched to a negative 30 day average trend , -2.6 , as of today.

So what I have spelled out in my discussion has occurred. A warmer stratosphere this winter will mean cold temperautres for the Northeast-Midatlantic. This will also cause a warm ENSO trend, SOI wise.

A colder stratosphere means warmth for us, but the SOI will be in a posiitive trend. Now this DOES NOT hold true every year and the formula changes with the QBO, 11 year cycle and the 22 year Hale cycle.


Jim