Snow for Texas

[ETXHAMXYL]

How far down does the cold or frozen precip. if any gets down into NTX? Will it come south of I-20? If so how far down? I have no idea how to read weather maps with the lines and numbers. I am assuming that this 850 number must be an important one, is that the freezing line, or is that a precp. line? Please explain this if you can in layman's terms. Thanks
Also when do you think the locals will mention the possiblity? So far nothing is showing up to John Q public about this.

[CaptinCrunch]

Modles are hinting that around December 1st, with a trough still over the West, a big storm system make landfall somewhere along the West coast. As this storm moves SE along the jet stream, and through the mountains on December 2nd, it will lose some of its strength. On December 3rd, this storm will set up in northern TX where it will begin to bomb out as a push of arctic air dives south from Canada and intersects this low. From there this storm will take one of two paths. If the 2nd storm that I mentioned above was strong enough to push cold air into the NE creating somewhat of a trough, then this storm will cut throught the SE then ride up the coast as a MAJOR winter storm, and POSSIBLY a blizzard for some. If the 2nd storm, didnt dig deep enough to create a trough over the NE, then this storm will move NNE throught the OV/GL's creating a MAJOR snowstorm, for many.

[ETXHAMXYL]

So far the National Weather Service has this upcoming end of the week at about 70. Accuweather also has highs in the upper 60's. So no hint of this cold outbreak yet. I think they are also backing off of any precip.
I am so tired of this warm & dry & wind. REady for the cold and frozen stuff.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest run (18Z 11- 28-05)of the GFS looks much warmer than previous runs and completely removes any mention of snow in Houston. Hopefully this just turns out to be a typical GFS flip-flop and not a trend...it would really be nice to get some true winter weather down this way for a change.

[Portastorm]

The latest run (18Z 11- 28-05)of the GFS looks much warmer than previous runs and completely removes any mention of snow in Houston. Hopefully this just turns out to be a typical GFS flip-flop and not a trend...it would really be nice to get some true winter weather down this way for a change.

Yeah, the GFS has been flip-flopping more than a griddle full of pancakes at IHOP in the last 24 hrs!!

Accuwx's JB still insistent that the cold is coming and will likely deepen further south and west with a coating of snow late this coming weekend laid down from the Texas panhandle to New Jersey. The analog year he keeps mentioning is Dec. 2000 with an extreme version of 1989. If the snow track verifies, then those artic airmasses won't have much help in moderating as they move south.

[Kelarie]

But more than likely we wouldn't see snow or ice down in Austin right? So I should put away the snow shovel, snow blower and sled?

[Portastorm]

But more than likely we wouldn't see snow or ice down in Austin right? So I should put away the snow shovel, snow blower and sled?

Kelarie, you're killing me!

While snow/ice in Austin in December is unusual, it has happened as recent as Dec. 12-13, 2000. But still ... I wouldn't count on it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Quick glance at the AFD's this AM and the NWS offices in Texas pretty much don't know what to think about the extended (Sunday-Monday). All have low confidence in the model output and are going with the warmer end of the numbers. Translation: They will start trending the numbers downward as we get closer to the weekend.

Still, this Saturday I'll be watching a high school football playoff game in short sleaves and temps in the 80's. I want to wear my heavy jacket and gloves to at least one football game this season!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FT WORTH TX. has already brought down high temps for Sunday thru Tuesday to the mid and lower 50's with overnight lows in the lower 30's. It was 29 at my house this morning which was nice, I even fired up the fireplace lastnight, it was a nice setting with the Christmas tree and all the decor and MNF on tv.

[Johnny]

It looks like the NWS offices in Texas are siding with the ECMWF which is drier and warmer during this time period. They also mention that the GFS is starting to come around to the ECMWF? None of the discussions even mention the possibility of arctic air sliding south. Are the models even showing arctic air coming down? They do mention a strong cold front coming through Sunday but the word ARCTIC is not mentioned. I'd sure like to see the pro mets on this board chime in on this.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Yeah, NWS, Accuweather and locals are saying cold front but not an artic one as of yet. In fact Accuweather has late week in a zonal flow with mild temps on the weekend. I dont think a major cold outbreak that sends us from the 70's to the 50's(normal temps) is really a artic or cold front of much interest. Now if it blew us down into the 30's yeah, I'd get excited, but according to the above that isn't what they are leading us to believe will happen by monday. Also looking long range in their forecasts it has us back up near 70 all the way into the middle of Dec. What a Bummer.

I'd also like to hear from the Pros on this one too.

[CaptinCrunch]

Local mets are also keeping the chance of pops down with the frontal passage, I don't put much stock into the GFS models because it doesn't handel the cold at the surface at all. Last year we got a good little cold spell from the very cold air at the surface while the model runs were calling for more warmer temps. The models have move the coldest of air more to the east but it does put NTX in a NNW flow for a few days, that alone will allow enough colder air to slide south and bring high's in the lower 50's which will be a few degrees below the norm for NTX.

[Portastorm]

Well for what it's worth, JB showed on his paysite video this morning model comparisons for next week between the GFS, European, and UKMet. The GFS by far was the outlier in keeping a more zonal pattern while both the European and UKMET by 12.7 were more amplified.

As he says, "we shall see what we shall see."

I think a turn to more seasonal, consistent temps down here can be expected and probably some below normal. Obviously the question we all want answered is "how much below normal?"

[Johnny]

Correct me if I'm wrong but from what I recall, deep arctic airmasses usually sneek up on us. We really don't know where it's going or how cold it is until it enters the CONUS. Once an arctic front starts busting through Montana I think that is when we will know if it will push this far south or get shunted off to the east. I've heard it a hundred times....models don't handle shallow arctic airmasses that well.

Even if we see a deep arctic airmass diving through Canada we won't know if it will shoot straight south. Even the models won't be able to handle it correctly but they will give us somewhat of an idea. It's something that we have to watch while it is unfolding. Any thoughts?

[vbhoutex]

Correct me if I'm wrong but from what I recall, deep arctic airmasses usually sneek up on us. We really don't know where it's going or how cold it is until it enters the CONUS. Once an arctic front starts busting through Montana I think that is when we will know if it will push this far south or get shunted off to the east. I've heard it a hundred times....models don't handle shallow arctic airmasses that well.

Even if we see a deep arctic airmass diving through Canada we won't know if it will shoot straight south. Even the models won't be able to handle it correctly but they will give us somewhat of an idea. It's something that we have to watch while it is unfolding. Any thoughts?

Just about sums it up for most Arctic air masses we deal with in SE TX. I haven't looked at todays models yet, but the huge back opff yesterday did not surpriose me at all. Still it would be nice to get a nice punch of good strong arctic air.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Correct me if I'm wrong but from what I recall, deep arctic airmasses usually sneek up on us. We really don't know where it's going or how cold it is until it enters the CONUS. Once an arctic front starts busting through Montana I think that is when we will know if it will push this far south or get shunted off to the east. I've heard it a hundred times....models don't handle shallow arctic airmasses that well.

Even if we see a deep arctic airmass diving through Canada we won't know if it will shoot straight south. Even the models won't be able to handle it correctly but they will give us somewhat of an idea. It's something that we have to watch while it is unfolding. Any thoughts?

That's correct. I 've seen several occasions where the NWS has had to backtrack, big time, on forecasts involving Arctic airmasses and sometimes very close to the event. Once the temp drops in Dalhart, the rest of the offices from there down to Brownsville drop their forecasts temps like dominoes. It just doesn't happen too many time when you have teens or lower for highs in the Panhandle where at least some of that air is not going too make it over the rest of the state. That's not to say you won't have a day of extermes where it is 19 in Amarillo and 85 in Brownsville. But the next day Brownsville would be lucky to hit 45 if it is that cold in the Panhandle.

The old saying about nothing but a barbed wire fence between Texas and Canada is very true with Arctic outbreaks. Once you see the air oozing into ND and Montana, katy the barn door because the chances are it's is coming this way. When it comes in over Minniesota and the Lakes, chances are less likely for direct hit, but we would still cool down.

[Kelarie]

Well I try and keep things light around here. But I would really like to see a little of the frozen precip around here. Enough to keep me home for a couple of days in front of the fire place. Oh yeah.....

But more than likely we wouldn't see snow or ice down in Austin right? So I should put away the snow shovel, snow blower and sled?

Kelarie, you're killing me!

While snow/ice in Austin in December is unusual, it has happened as recent as Dec. 12-13, 2000. But still ... I wouldn't count on it.

[Johnny]

After reading the discussions this morning around Texas, it does not look like we will see any kind of a significant cool down next week. I know it's only Wednesday but none of the discussions even mention the word ARCTIC. I don't see anything interesting happening next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

FROPA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE...MOISTURE RETURN TOO BRIEF TO
ALLOW FOR POPS. SOME POSTFRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE SE THURSDAY...
BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SUCH.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. WEEKEND
FROPA...BUT ENERGY TOO FAR NORTH FOR DECENT PRECIP CHANCES. LARGE
CP AIR MASS TO COME OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL BE
SHUNTED SE INTO OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO TEXAS
WHERE TEMPS WILL ONLY BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL.


Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 39.

Monday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 54.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 56.


GFS MRF has cold front backdooring in to NTX late Saturday night or early Sunday morning with high's remaining in the mid to upper 50's thru Thursday of next week, I expect overnight lows to be in the mid to lower 30's.

[Portastorm]

After reading the discussions this morning around Texas, it does not look like we will see any kind of a significant cool down next week. I know it's only Wednesday but none of the discussions even mention the word ARCTIC. I don't see anything interesting happening next week.

I was coming to the same conclusion, Johnny, until a few minutes ago when I saw the 12z run of the GFS. Check out the link below and look at days 5-10. If you buy into it, the arctic cold is coming as the 540 thickness line is almost into the Valley!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Michael