Invest 96L C Atlantic,Comments.Sat Pics,Models Thread

[quandary]

Notice that it does say Tropical Storm invest. not tropical depression!

[cjrciadt]

That was quick, i was trying to get on the NRL site just now. It's down, and this is what I miss

[cycloneye]

That was quick, i was trying to get on the NRL site just now. It's down, and this is what I miss

That is why they have a backup site if the main one goes down.



http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[Anonymous]

Ships makes it Hurricane Epsilon in a few days...when the heck would I ever think I would ever have to type HURRICANE EPSILON??!?!

[P.K.]

If it makes a subtropical or tropical transition that is. How does the SHIP model cope with developing baroclinic systems as it isn't rare to get hurricane force winds out of those.

[AZS]

This one has Azores as target............

[wxman57]

Well, if they named Delta, I don't see why they wouldn't name Epsilon in the next 24-48 hours. Here's a recent satellite I snapped in McIDAS. Confection is wrapping around the south of the center.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/epsilon1.gif">

[krysof]

I think this will be sub tropical storm Epsilon but if it moves southward then I see it aqcuiring tropical characteristics. It's been a crazy season and it still goes on.

[cjrciadt]

The models turn it N.?

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EST on November 28, 2005

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower activity associated with a non-tropical area of low pressure
centered about 975 miles east of Bermuda has become a little better
organized this afternoon. There is some potential for subtropical
or tropical development of this system over the next couple of days
as it moves slowly west or southwestward.

Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.

Forecaster Beven

[WindRunner]

Well, the models have been consistent to say the least. I don't think those tracks have changed in about 3 days.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like we have our next storm on our hands.

[quandary]

No numbers up yet.... probably a few days off at best.

[MGC]

Like Delta the transition to a tropical cyclone will take days, which is typical. When will it end?????.....MGC

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 282322
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.5 47.4 275./ 1.9
6 30.7 47.8 293./ 3.4
12 31.0 48.4 294./ 6.4
18 31.2 49.3 288./ 7.9
24 31.3 50.2 275./ 7.3
30 31.2 50.9 263./ 6.7
36 31.2 51.5 271./ 4.5
42 31.1 52.6 263./ 9.5
48 31.0 53.3 265./ 6.5
54 31.1 53.5 284./ 1.8
60 31.5 53.5 11./ 4.1
66 32.5 53.3 8./10.8
72 33.4 53.5 349./ 8.4
78 34.1 53.4 6./ 7.2
84 35.0 53.3 3./ 8.6
90 36.2 53.2 6./12.0
96 39.0 53.4 356./28.1
102 42.6 54.6 341./37.5
108 46.6 55.2 353./40.2
114 50.7 57.0 336./42.1



18z GFDL.

[WindRunner]

Both the GFS and GFDL kind of butcher the storm as the GFS absorbs it into another low that develops to the NE of 96 in a couple of days, where this new GFDL takes it off toward Newfoundland and absorbs it into a developing low off the New England coast in about 4-5 days. At this point, I wouldn't go with either.

[cycloneye]

28/2345 UTC 30.9N 48.3W ST1.5/1.5 96 -- Atlantic Ocean


First dvorak T numbers for 96L

[WindRunner]

And this is one of the more unique maps I've seen - possibly one already there?

[senorpepr]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

swirl looks devoid of its convective clothing...