Invest 96L C Atlantic,Comments.Sat Pics,Models Thread

hicksta · #41 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 9:50 pm

I reckon we might get a storm out of this one eh

#42 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 9:51 pm

No 0000 UTC model plots?

#43 Postby **cjrciadt** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:11 pm

#44 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:15 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

#45 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:17 pm

As expected, no change. It will be interesting to see if this one has as many days to develop as Delta had.

hicksta · #46 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:42 pm

Greenland!!

mike815 · #47 Postby **mike815** » Mon Nov 28, 2005 10:46 pm

Yeah i still think it may have a shot looks less likely though compared to delta.

quandary · #48 Postby **quandary** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 12:16 am

mike815 wrote:Yeah i still think it may have a shot looks less likely though compared to delta.

Well.. Delta obviously made it and this hasn't, so clearly Delta's odds of being a tropical cyclone are higher.

#49 Postby **P.K.** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 3:21 am

Can't see any 6amGMT model guidance even though it is 8:21am. :?:

#50 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 5:25 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291006
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT.
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN/RRG

rainstorm · #51 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 6:15 am

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

#52 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 6:15 am

#53 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 6:50 am

SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 994 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W DRIFTING SW.
ISOBARIC PACKING IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE CENTER.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST
OR SOUTHWEST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 27N-34N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

7 AM EST Discussion.

#54 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am

29/1145 UTC 31.6N 50.0W ST2.5/2.5 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvoral T numbers increased this morning.Will we see Epsilon later today?

mike815 · #55 Postby **mike815** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:22 am

Maybe. hmmm... it would suprise me but it is possible. I really thought this one was going to have a harder time than delta.

#56 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:55 am

LOOKING REALLY GOOD, BETTER THAN WHAT I WAS EXPECTING TO FIND THIS MORNING. THREE NOVEMBER STORMS?!?!?!?

#57 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:07 am

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL962005) ON 20051129 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051129 1200 051130 0000 051130 1200 051201 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 50.0W 32.1N 51.5W 32.5N 53.1W 32.7N 54.6W
BAMM 31.6N 50.0W 31.8N 51.7W 32.0N 53.3W 32.1N 54.8W
A98E 31.6N 50.0W 32.3N 51.7W 32.3N 53.7W 32.3N 54.8W
LBAR 31.6N 50.0W 32.5N 51.3W 33.1N 52.5W 33.6N 53.8W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 58KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 53KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051201 1200 051202 1200 051203 1200 051204 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.5N 55.2W 33.1N 48.9W 36.2N 43.5W 38.9N 42.2W
BAMM 32.0N 55.7W 31.2N 51.0W 32.8N 43.4W 32.8N 40.0W
A98E 32.6N 54.7W 35.1N 52.4W 36.0N 47.7W 33.3N 41.9W
LBAR 34.6N 54.6W 36.9N 54.0W 42.5N 49.5W 50.7N 42.3W
SHIP 62KTS 63KTS 58KTS 52KTS
DSHP 62KTS 63KTS 58KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 50.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 48.3W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 47.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 175NM

12:00z Models.Pressure continues to drop and winds going up.

DESTRUCTION5 · #58 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:20 am

This is Epsilon Folks...I say upgrade at 11:00

#59 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:26 am

This system is desperate. Yesterday at this time it wasn't even an invest, and right now is almost Epsilon. GOING FAST! THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS!

#60 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Nov 29, 2005 8:47 am

wxman57 wrote:Well, if they named Delta, I don't see why they wouldn't name Epsilon in the next 24-48 hours. Here's a recent satellite I snapped in McIDAS. Confection is wrapping around the south of the center.

After Thanksgiving, I had a lot of confection wrapping around the southside of my center too.

Invest 96L C Atlantic,Comments.Sat Pics,Models Thread

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