GULF STATES/LOWER OH VLY/TN VLY/ATLANTIC SEABOARD STATES...
THIS PORTION OF THE LOWER 48 WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHORTWAVE
TRAFFIC MOVING THRU THE FAST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE
MEAN TROF OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. ONE WAVE WILL BRING
PCPN TO THIS REGION SAT NIGHT/SUN AS IT RACES RAPIDLY ENEWD. SOME
SN POSSIBLE ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PCPN SUN ACROSS PA/NRN NJ/SRN
NEW ENG. A SECOND MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL TRACK A BIT S OF THE
TRACK OF THE FIRST ONE ABOUT A DAY LATER...WITH STRONG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE VCNTY OF CAPE HATTERAS LATER MON. THE 12Z/30 MODEL
COMPOSITE TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH S...WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR
AVAILBLE...TO THREATEN THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ITS FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SN OF THE 2005-2006 WINTER SEASON.
SIGNIFICANT storm for I-95
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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iwantsnow321
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 12
- Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 3:42 pm
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Coredesat
Doesn't look like anything significant for Richmonders from this storm for now:
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010203
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...GFS/NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...GFS HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
SAT-SUN WHEN COMPARED TO PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT MON. SO...CONFIDENCE
FOR BETTER THAN 50% RAIN CHANCES REMAINS HIGH FOR SAT NIGHT INTO (AT
LEAST) EARLY SUN. IN TERMS OF TYPE...THE PROJECTED TRACK AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL/THICKNESS REGIME WOULD POINT TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE. GFS HAS EXHIBITED TERRIBLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
SINCE THE 06/12Z RUNS YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAD A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST ON MON WITH
YESTERDAY'S 12Z RUN...THEN TRENDED TOWARD A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH/WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WITH LAST NIGHT'S 00Z
RUN. THE LATEST (12Z) RUN MEANWHILE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
AND TRACKING IN THE SAME FASHION AS YDAY'S 12Z RUN. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR STILL A BIG QUESTION MARK (AT LEAST WITH
THE GFS TRENDS)...WILL OPT FOR A LIQUID FORECAST FOR NOW.
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 010203
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...GFS/NAM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...GFS HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
SAT-SUN WHEN COMPARED TO PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT MON. SO...CONFIDENCE
FOR BETTER THAN 50% RAIN CHANCES REMAINS HIGH FOR SAT NIGHT INTO (AT
LEAST) EARLY SUN. IN TERMS OF TYPE...THE PROJECTED TRACK AND LOW
LEVEL THERMAL/THICKNESS REGIME WOULD POINT TO RAIN IN ALL AREAS.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS ON
THE LOW SIDE. GFS HAS EXHIBITED TERRIBLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
SINCE THE 06/12Z RUNS YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAD A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST ON MON WITH
YESTERDAY'S 12Z RUN...THEN TRENDED TOWARD A FLATTER UPPER
TROUGH/WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW WITH LAST NIGHT'S 00Z
RUN. THE LATEST (12Z) RUN MEANWHILE HAS THE LOW DEVELOPING/DEEPENING
AND TRACKING IN THE SAME FASHION AS YDAY'S 12Z RUN. FOR NOW...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH THE
AVAILABILITY OF COLD AIR STILL A BIG QUESTION MARK (AT LEAST WITH
THE GFS TRENDS)...WILL OPT FOR A LIQUID FORECAST FOR NOW.
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