Code: Select all
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DESPITE MODERATE NLY/OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN CA...RECENT LIGHT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA...BUT HERE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO LIMIT ANY
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. FURTHER EAST...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY/S BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WEAK COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO THE PRESENCE OF MUCH LOWER
DEWPTS WILL AID IN VERY LOW RH READINGS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENTLY MODERATE NLY WINDS /10-15 MPH/ A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES WHERE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS EXIST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN AL...CENTRAL/SRN
MS...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH...MIN RH READINGS FROM 20-30 PERCENT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE MORE OF A WIND SHIFT AS LOW LEVELS
REMAIN MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL LITTLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRY AIR /WITH DEWPTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/ WILL
MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA. DEWPTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 50 F ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE MILD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW DEWPTS WILL LEAD TO MIN RH READINGS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL AL/MS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN FAR SRN MS/AL...SERN LA AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. EARLY MORNING RADAR DERIVED WINDS /VWP/
SUGGEST THAT WINDS ONLY A THOUSAND FEET AGL WERE AROUND 30 MPH. THIS
WAS AROUND 10 MPH STRONGER THAN RECENT MODEL FCSTS FOR THE SAME
LEVEL ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED GRADUALLY WEAKENING
OF THESE WINDS FIELDS THROUGH THE DAY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED NLY WINDS FROM 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW RH READINGS AND HIGH FIRE
DANGERS/SHORT TERM DROUGHT...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RH RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.
...NRN CA...
EARLIER INDICATIONS OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT HAVE BEEN
MITIGATED BY WETTING RAINS THAT OCCURRED OVER MOST OF NRN CA
YESTERDAY. MODERATE /15-25 MPH/ NNELY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
OCCUR THROUGH TODAY IN THE VALLEYS/MTNS...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE
HILLS...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST BETWEEN THE
NRN GREAT BASIN AND COASTAL CENTRAL CA. MIN RH READINGS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT TODAY...AND AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OVERNIGHT IN THE
HILLS ABOVE 15OO FT.
..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Code: Select all
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2005
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST ON DAY ONE WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
DAY TWO...WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER SRN
CA. OTHERWISE...BROAD WNWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM THE PAC NW/NRN
ROCKIES SEWD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. AN ENERGETIC LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO MT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. INCREASING SURFACE SWLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
FIRE DANGER OVER MT. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER DAY OF LOW RH READINGS /25-35 PERCENT/
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS HIGH.
HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON DAY ONE...AND THUS A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR.
...MT...
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AHEAD OF A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN CANADA. THE AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT THIS COULD HAVE A
PRONOUNCED AFFECT ON AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MIN RH READINGS. SINCE
ENOUGH CERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW LOW MIN RH READINGS WILL BE...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM.
...SERN STATES...
MIN RH READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLOSER PROXIMITY OF
THE SURFACE HIGH THAN ON DAY ONE ALONG WITH DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
..CROSBIE.. 10/16/2005
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...