Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[fasterdisaster]

Well...I've never seen a tropical storm look that much like a hurricane, and during Vince I believe, a NHC forecaster said "if it looks like a hurricane, it probably is". Vince didn't have very cold convection either.

[Coredesat]

Looks like Epsilon will be yet another 70 MPH TS:

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051201 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

051201 0600 051201 1800 051202 0600 051202 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.0N 52.7W 31.0N 50.6W 32.7N 47.9W 34.5N 45.4W

BAMM 30.0N 52.7W 31.0N 51.1W 32.4N 49.1W 33.8N 47.0W

A98E 30.0N 52.7W 31.1N 50.0W 32.4N 47.6W 34.0N 45.1W

LBAR 30.0N 52.7W 30.9N 50.5W 32.4N 48.5W 34.1N 46.3W

SHIP 55KTS 52KTS 48KTS 45KTS

DSHP 55KTS 52KTS 48KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

051203 0600 051204 0600 051205 0600 051206 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 36.2N 43.4W 39.4N 41.1W 44.6N 39.2W 51.4N 33.2W

BAMM 34.9N 44.9W 36.4N 41.1W 38.0N 36.2W 36.5N 32.9W

A98E 35.1N 43.5W 36.5N 41.1W 40.5N 36.3W 43.1N 29.2W

LBAR 35.6N 44.6W 37.5N 41.1W 39.4N 37.1W 40.5N 32.2W

SHIP 40KTS 35KTS 34KTS 27KTS

DSHP 40KTS 35KTS 34KTS 27KTS

[joe_koehle]

looking alot better now than it did 8-12 hrs ago....looks like the convection is re-wrapping around the center.

[cjrciadt]

Vince as a Cane

Epsilon right now

[sponger]

Wow! Not bad for a december storm! Ground swell starting to fill in on the east coast this morning. Wish it had gotten a little closer!

[quandary]

T numbers for Epsilon are up i think. 3.5/3.5 meaning 55kts. The advisory intensity has always been higher than the the satellite estimate, often to the tune of 15kts, so Epsilon could be upgraded to hurricane soon if it even strengthens slightly.

[cjrciadt]

Nice looking Visible

[wxman57]

Here's a bigger visible from McIDAS. It could well get close to hurricane strength, if it's not already there.


<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/epsilon10.gif">

[cjrciadt]

AFM, what do you think of Epsilon?

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what do you think of Epsilon?

Not much. Just another storm in a busy year.

The only thing I think about in regards to Epsilon is it makes me wonder how many of these storms were around in 1933 (and other years) before we had satellite and an NHC to tell the diff b/w a tropical low and an extra-tropical low.

In all reality, 1933 probably had a few storms that went undetected or that were detected but were not thought of as tropical in nature because it was November and in the middle of the ocean...and if there were satellite and NHC guys looking at sat images...well...you get the idea.

So...what Epsilon really makes me do is wonder what was really out there 70 years ago...or 700 years ago. We as human beings tend to judge the future trends by what is happening now...instead of keeping things in perspective.

[HURAKAN]

AFM, what do you think of Epsilon?

Not much. Just another storm in a busy year.

The only thing I think about in regards to Epsilon is it makes me wonder how many of these storms were around in 1933 (and other years) before we had satellite and an NHC to tell the diff b/w a tropical low and an extra-tropical low.

In all reality, 1933 probably had a few storms that went undetected or that were detected but were not thought of as tropical in nature because it was November and in the middle of the ocean...and if there were satellite and NHC guys looking at sat images...well...you get the idea.

So...what Epsilon really makes me do is wonder what was really out there 70 years ago...or 700 years ago. We as human beings tend to judge the future trends by what is happening now...instead of keeping things in perspective.

I agree completely. Storms like Lee, Vince, Delta, and Epsilon were probably undetected if they had happened in 1933, but still, I think the 2005 season has won the title of the most storms in one season with 26. I personally don't believe in 1933 they could have missed 5 storms or more, maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I think.

[P.K.]

60kts

WHXX01 KWBC 011913
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051201 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051201 1800 051202 0600 051202 1800 051203 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.4N 51.4W 32.9N 49.0W 34.7N 46.2W 36.6N 44.3W
BAMM 31.4N 51.4W 32.7N 49.8W 34.2N 47.7W 35.2N 45.7W
A98E 31.4N 51.4W 32.3N 49.7W 33.5N 46.9W 35.1N 43.1W
LBAR 31.4N 51.4W 32.7N 49.5W 33.9N 47.4W 35.4N 45.4W
SHIP 60KTS 59KTS 54KTS 50KTS
DSHP 60KTS 59KTS 54KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051203 1800 051204 1800 051205 1800 051206 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.3N 43.2W 43.3N 41.1W 52.4N 36.4W 61.8N 34.4W
BAMM 36.1N 43.9W 37.7N 39.6W 39.5N 35.0W 37.1N 31.1W
A98E 36.7N 39.7W 37.8N 34.3W 40.8N 30.8W 42.1N 26.3W
LBAR 36.2N 43.9W 37.7N 40.0W 39.4N 34.4W 43.7N 31.2W
SHIP 46KTS 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS
DSHP 46KTS 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.4N LONCUR = 51.4W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 52DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 54.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 80NM RD34NW = 90NM

[quandary]

Well... I entertain the possibility that some of the storms of 1933 might've not been bonafide storms. Before satellites, was there a real way to determine the difference between a weak tropical storm and a collage of thunderstorms?

[cjrciadt]

A defined eye is reappearing this will it's last chance.

[cjrciadt]

[mike815]

It sure looks like it has one finial shot. I think it really wants to become a hurricane what a way to go out.

[Air Force Met]

I agree completely. Storms like Lee, Vince, Delta, and Epsilon were probably undetected if they had happened in 1933, but still, I think the 2005 season has won the title of the most storms in one season with 26. I personally don't believe in 1933 they could have missed 5 storms or more, maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I think.

Lee would have certainly been undetected if this was '33. Delta...probably not because of the Canary Islands impact...but Epsilon might have been called a gale instead of a tropical storm. Bottom line is we really don't know. More to the point though is this: The years form 1933-2005 is just a small blink in time. Imagine what the season of 1233 was like...or 1088. If some of the research coming out of LSU is correct and we are on the bottom end of a 1500 year cycle, then we are coming out of a 700 year lull. Hurricane seasons 700 years ago could have been much more active. That's what I was speaking of about keeping perspective...which is what I try to do when I run into chicken little' the sky is falling "global warming" types who want to just look at a few above normal years and call it a trend. This is just a blink in time. Wish we could go back and see what happened 1000 years ago. Maybe one day we will. Who knows...maybe 882 MB storms were the norm

Now THAT would give some perspective.

[fasterdisaster]

This is its last chance. Will Eppy make it?

[Weatherfreak14]

I dont think so.. Its moving into colder water but it is possible.

[wxmann_91]

I personally think that the number of storms in 1933 could be at most 2 or 3 off. Yes, some storms could have been undetected, but others could've been counted twice (e.g. Gamma).