Snow for Texas

[stormspotter]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 012030
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CST THU DEC 1 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY NEAR A MONTGOMERY TO HATTIESBURG LINE...
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MAINLY JUST A BROKEN DECK OF LOW-MID
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ALTHO A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...NOTHING MEASURABLE IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
TRAILING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST...SETTING UP A
WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN BY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NEWD ALONG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY. SPC`S DAY 3
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MS AND AL.
HOWEVER...THE OUTLOOK DOES ENCOMPASS THE FAR NW REACHES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. ALL ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 39/DARBE

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY)...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES STILL
APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT
DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SECOND SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OVER CENTRAL MS ON SUNDAY AND PUSHING
OVER NORTHERN AL-GA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING ACROSS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. WILL TREND
TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FROPA...NOW SOMETIME ON MONDAY...AND SHOW
DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEARING
...BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
COLD CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD.

THINGS COULD GET VERY INTERESTING WEATHER WISE LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE
00Z AND NOW 12Z GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER ROBUST
SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP OVER THE NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL THIS WHILE A DOME OF COLD CANADIAN AIR CONTINUES
TO SETTLE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS DOES SHOW ANY
ASSOCIATED WINTERY PRECIP TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF DEEP COLD AIR IN-PLACE THIS
FAR SOUTH. OF COURSE...THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT...SO STAY TUNED. /39

&&

[CaptinCrunch]

AFD NWS FT WORTH TX 400PM

A SIGNIFICANT LONGWAVE PATTERN SHIFT CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST BY
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO OCCUR OVER NORTH AMERICA NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF ARCTIC AIR BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE FROM THE AMERICAN MODEL SUITE...AS
WELL AS FROM THE ECMWF/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RESULTING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF A VERY COLD AIRMASS...AND
INDEED A 1040+ MB HIGH IS NOTED MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT
WEEK. THE COLD AIR SHOULD ACTUALLY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL PIECES...WITH
THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR LIKELY
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ABANDON GFS MOS NUMBERS
DURING THIS PERIOD...AND FOLLOW MORE IN LINE WITH PROGS FROM THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF AIRMASS AND DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT PREFER TO WAIT
FOR TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CONSISTENCY AMONG SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME.

[PTrackerLA]

NWS New Orleans mentions the cold rain scenario for next week. Could this lead to some wintry conditions around here?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CST THU DEC 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO LA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE
SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH MOISTURE. BARELY ENOUGH TO
SHIFT THE RADAR INTO PRECIP MODE. BASICALLY VIRGA. THEN WE HAVE
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING INTO THE MISS VALLEY. HOWEVER...DO NOT
GET A GOOD NRLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AFTER THIS FRONT. FLOW IS WEAK
AND TURNS BACK AROUND QUICKLY...YIELDING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF OUR NEXT GOOD FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH IS SCHEDULED FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM AND HOLD MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES...AND
RETURNING OF COLD TEMPS BEHIND IT. THIS RUN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
YESTERDAY SO HAD TO EXTEND POPS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALREADY COLD AIR IN
PLACE...COLD RAIN IN STORE....BRRRRR.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18Z GFS run looks much warmer with next weeks cold shot, but I think it will be wrong, and will probably be back to a colder look by tomorrow. Plus, according to this mornings discussion, Joe Bastardi from accuweather thinks the GFS will bust by 10-20 degrees in Texas. As of this evening...forecast highs (from the NWS) in Wichita Falls have been lowered to 37 next Wednesday, Dallas has a forecast of 43 next Wednesday and cities in SE Texas (Houston, Lufkin, Victoria, etc.) generally have forecast high numbers between 49-57 degrees...Houston has a forecast of 57 for now, but it will probably be lowered over time...and a high below 50 looks very possible for next week, may be even below 45. This will be a drastic change as highs are expected to reach 82-83 this Saturday.

[Wpwxguy]

I read the discussion earlier, and it did give me a little ray of hope that we could see some winter weather. I've been watching the GFS flip flop for the last few days and am getting increasingly irritated. We should know by Sunday what the week will hold, I think it'll turn sharply colder but the question is do we get any Gulf moisture to go along with it. I know we're not Texas, but the same holds true for you guys. Good luck everyone!

Bill

[TexasStooge]

This has gotta be a misreading.

According to Mineral Wells Airport, cities surrounding that area are getting light snow!

Temp at this hour is 36*F.

Tonight's forecast for the Mineral Wells area via NWS calls for Clear skies with temperatures at or below freezing.

[aggiecutter]

12z EURO looks awfully cold for Texas next week.

Scroll halfway down the page for EURO 7 day.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

[Portastorm]

12z EURO looks awfully cold for Texas next week.

Scroll halfway down the page for EURO 7 day.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/models.html

Oh man is it ever!!

And then, I just saw the new 0z run of the GFS and it looks warmer than previous runs. Flip, flop, flip, flop, flip, flop.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

How cold does the Euro take us?

And will the GFS ever get fixed when it comes to flip flopping on cold air masses?

One of our TV mets posted temps in the 50's and rain for Thursday, but he thinks they could be lower, maybe 40's and coolness might stay awhile.

Bring it!

[Portastorm]

How cold does the Euro take us?

And will the GFS ever get fixed when it comes to flip flopping on cold air masses?

One of our TV mets posted temps in the 50's and rain for Thursday, but he thinks they could be lower, maybe 40's and coolness might stay awhile.

Bring it!

Well, the Euro temp guidance for next Thursday here in Austin has our 850mb temp at 0.8 degrees ... if I'm not mistaken that basically means mid and upper 30s surface temperature. And that is for 12z (7 a.m. ?) Add a couple of degrees and you'll probably have the Corpus air temp. Low 40s?

The one thing I have read in several Texas and Oklahoma forecast discussions from NWS mets is that the Euro is showing much more run-to-run consistency than the GFS. I guess none of us should be surprised by that!

[ETXHAMXYL]

I watched the 10 oclock weather for 3 of the 4 news stations out of Dallas tonight. It was interesting. One met said a Cool Canadian front by Tuesday but only about 49, the others had Dallas in the mid 40's and one had the forecast highs only at 40. Most said it would be around a few days before warming back up into the 60's and no rain. So according to them a two to three day cool down. Accuweather handles it about the same.
The posts on here seem to be more colder and possible wet stuff. Even the local NWS has it colder and at least they are looking at maybe some wet stuff but are holding off on it until later runs.
Well at least it might be cold enough for my chili this week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In Joe Bastardi's discussion from the accuweather professional site this morning, he said that he thinks Houston and San Antonio may not get out of the 30s for a day or two!!! Brrr...if it was that cold down here, then I would bet parts of north Texas don't get above freezing for 1-2 days next week. If he is right, then we are in for an extreme shot of arctic air. Bastardi thinks this will be the coldest start to winter since 1989.

***Update: Joe Bastardi was just on CNBC and also mentioned the potential for highs in the 30s in Houston***

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Well it looks like the numbers are coming down by the day. It kind of looks like the tracks are being set for a prolonged cold snap if the air that is coming down has a chance to knock us down that far right away considering the ground temps are still pretty warm for most of the state.

As long as it's cold during Christmas and New Year's day, all will be great!

Bring it!

[Kelarie]

Well looking at weather.com (take it for what you will) on the 8th it shows rain and snow showers for Fort Worth.... Of course that can change...

Interesting.

Portastorm...maybe I should start unpacking my snow stuff, huh???

Kel

[CaptinCrunch]

A December like 89 would be nice and make for a great holiday feeling, after all it should be cold for Christmas. The only thing about Dec 89 was that Jan-Feb of 90 was warmer than avg even when it did get cold it didn't last, and I don't remember any wintery precip during that time either.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

A December like 89 would be nice and make for a great holiday feeling, after all it should be cold for Christmas. The only thing about Dec 89 was that Jan-Feb of 90 was warmer than avg even when it did get cold it didn't last, and I don't remember any wintery precip during that time either.

I think you are right about 89 and the Jan-Feb period after that.

But in 1983, which was more prolonged and had plenty of cold before the big Christmas Eve punch of air that broke, no shatterd records,down to Brownsville, I seem to recall we had a cooler that average Jan and Feb in 1984. I think we had another punch or air that bought another round of prolonged freezing temps around New Year's Day too.

[jeff]

Highly active weather pattern shaping up with large temperature swings expected.



Warm front will move northward today with moist and unstable Gulf air mass surging into the area. May see a few showers develop late today and tonight as this boundary returns. Warm day on tap for Saturday and Sunday ahead of strong cold front late Sunday. Latest guidance suggests thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon with severe weather modes. PWS increase to 1.4 in along with an impressive 180kt jet streak crossing the area during peak heating. SPC day 3 outlook has the northern parts of the area outlooked and given the forecasted wind profiles this looks reasonable.



Next Week:

Major pattern amplification forecast over the central US with significant outbreak of cold arctic air. Confidence is growing with this potential event as additional model guidance seems to be pointing toward very cold air entering the US early next week. The GFS has a massive 1040mb high over the central plains Tuesday while the ECMWF has a 1045mb high located over Nebraska late Tuesday. Given a deepening large scale trough over the central US with good connection to northern Canada, this should allow the cold dense air to be dislodged and sent southward.



Canadian front should pass off the TX coast early Monday with the secondary arctic front arriving in TX Tuesday and off the TX coast early Wednesday. Additional downward temp. trends for next week will be needed as GFS numbers appear too warm (highs in the 50’s). Overall feeling is that sub-freezing highs will cover all of N TX with highs struggling to get out of the 40’s across SE TX. Coastal trough is forecast to develop in the GFS off the middle TX coast late Wednesday spreading moisture northward into the cold air. Other models do not really support this thinking, but the GFS has been somewhat consistent with this thinking. I will be conservative with precipitation chances for the Wed through Fri time frame and keep everything liquid for the time being. Changeover line would likely be somewhere over central into north Texas where the 0C 850mb and 540m thickness lines are located if in fact precipitation does develop. Overall cold air outbreak and precip. chances need to be closely watched over the next few days as past experience with such events have usually been too warm in the guidance at the extended range.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Again, thanks Jeff!

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 12Z run of the GFS has a band of light snow moving through NE Texas, and reaching as far south as Houston on Thursday, December 8th! This would be awesome!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

All of the Texas NWS AFD's are all on board for a drastic change next week and are saying it will last awhile.

All aboard! The train from the north maybe getting ready to leave the station for Texas.