2005 - An odd season so far

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How many more named storms in the Atlantic Basin in 2005?

None
2
3%
1-2
8
13%
3-4
4
6%
5-6
16
25%
7 or more
34
53%
 
Total votes: 64

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wxmann_91
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#21 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:28 pm

hurricanefreak1988 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:(everything that further proves...)

...that you guys (especially wxmann_91) should not be writing off the season like this. Come on, we haven't even gotten to the peak of the season yet! How can you say that the activity is going to drop? T.D. Ten fizzled; big deal. That doesn't mean the environment in that area is going to stay that way. I'm still confident that this will be the year that we finally go all the way. Like I've said several times before- Alpha, see you in October or November.


Well, after I looked at our MOTM's post about this season, and of course with this Frank2 saying that he is a former NHC employee and he saying that this season is going to be off too, I was pretty sure this morning that this season was a bust. Now I could've made a premature prediction, but that is certainly possible, and I did say Oct. and Nov. weren't going to be a bust. Of course, after I looked at a few other posts looking at climatology, I guess this is normal. But of course with me only tracking storms for a few years my amateur mind, when I thought of Aug 1-15 I immediately thought of Cat 5 monster Hurricane Allen in 1980, but of course that must of been a pretty rare event like Dennis/Emily this year.

The truth is I owe you guys a formal apology and I must say that the CV season isn't over yet, :wink: but yet what happened during this year's tornado season and what some actually not-so-amateur posters have claimed still troubles me. On the other hand, some other not-so-amateur posters and the hurricane experts at NOAA, like Dr. Gray, say that this year will be active. So the best thing to do right now is to just to sit and relax before things get active (if they do, which is probable).
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#22 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 15, 2005 7:36 am

To add a bit to what was mentioned yesterday, yes, we'll probably see more tropical storms or hurricanes before the end of the season, but, there are a number of strong factors this season which are either inhibiting development, or are allowing for systems to recurve:

the number and size of SAL outbreaks, increased southwesterly shear (compared with the 2004 season), a more northerly position of the ICTZ, the frequency and duration of ULL's, and an inconsistent or fractured subtropical high (I like to refer this ridge as being curtain-edged or scalloped-shaped, which allows for weaknesses between the lobes of high pressure).

this seems to be countering the factors that are favoring development:

above normal SST's, a more northerly position of the ITCZ, and an absence of El Nino conditions.

interesting to note that while the a more northerly position of the ITCZ favors development, it also allows for the possibility of more recurving systems.

Hopefully no one here will blame me if I am biased towards a less-than-expected season - if it does become very active and affects Florida directly, I fear we will see gasoline at the $5 a gallon and above level!

Frank
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#23 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Dec 02, 2005 7:50 pm

Who knew that 17 more storms would form after this poll was created??? :eek:

None 3% [ 2 ]
1-2 8% [ 5 ]
3-4 7% [ 4 ]
5-6 26% [ 15 ]
7 or more 54% [ 31 ]

Total Votes : 57

Interesting to read back on how so many (including me) actually denied that this season would be a blockbuster season.

P.S. DON'T VOTE IN THIS POLL!!! OLD POLL!!!
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Dec 02, 2005 8:24 pm

JUST A CRAZY SEASON!!!
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#25 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:09 am

Who knew about TD10 "fizzling" to play a role in becoming that beast who shall not be named? :lol:
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#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 03, 2005 10:10 am

LAwxrgal wrote:Who knew about TD10 "fizzling" to play a role in becoming that beast who shall not be named? :lol:


You are very right about that. :)
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