Snow for Texas

[Wpwxguy]

Here's that link for the precipitation forecast.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... hr156hr168

[Extremeweatherguy]

In Joe Bastardis afternoon coloumn he says that it looks very possible that we will see a snow/ice threat all the way to I-10 (which would include places like Houston), and we may also see a freeze threat all the way into the lower Rio Grande Valley! This crazy weather scenario continues to look more and more likely. I think next Wednesday through Friday will feature highs below 45 in Houston (possibly only in the 30s) with lows below 30, and a slight threat of rain/snow/sleet/frz. rain each day...with the best chances on Thursday for snow. Joe thinks this will be the coldest start to December since 1989, but he thinks it may return to near normal temps. by mid to late month. I hope this all plays out, I would love a 3-day period of some REAL winter weather.

[Portastorm]

Well looking at weather.com (take it for what you will) on the 8th it shows rain and snow showers for Fort Worth.... Of course that can change...

Interesting.

Portastorm...maybe I should start unpacking my snow stuff, huh???

Kel

Ha! I wouldn't gas up the snow blower just yet Kel. But get those cold-weather clothes ready!

I see NWS has our highs around 50 later next week. Betcha those drop in the next day or two.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This morning Joe Bastardi's Post on accuweather.com professional stated that he still believes that the GFS will bust by 10-20 degrees in Texas, and he thinks a snow and ice threat could reach as far south as I-10 on Thursday morning. He also mentioned the possibility of record breaking cold Friday night if skies clear. By the way...I checked, and the record low for Saturday morning (12-10) is 20 degrees set in 1978; so if a record breaking low occurred Friday night/Saturday morning, then we could be talking about teens in Houston! Brrr...

[Yankeegirl]

This is our second "hurricane" season here... Its either snow or a hurricane... Its all the hype and the talk of the town... Its great! Although I am jealous of my family up in RI, I would love to see the snow again here...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I emailed Joe Bastardi through his pro site email link about the cold snap here next week...and his response was that Thursday may not get out of the lower to middle 30s in Houston with wind, clouds and possibly some frozen precip. He also said that lows could get as low as 22-26 degrees! I hope this plays out...it would be very cool (literally).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Even local news stations are starting to hint at a possible winter weather situation. Below is a discussion from khou.com (Channel 11 news in Houston):

A strong cold front will breeze through Southeast Texas Sunday morning with falling temperatures the rest of the day. The warmest temperature of the day will occur in the morning with temperatures falling into the 50’s by afternoon. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms are expected to form behind the front and may help temperatures drop even faster Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Monday will be some 20-30 degrees colder that that on Saturday and early Sunday. The sudden drop in temperatures will make it feel even colder. On Wednesday a strong front of arctic origins will sweep through the state perhaps bringing the coldest weather of the season. It’s the forecast later in the week that has the lowest confidence. There is no dispute that cold air will invade the region, but what happens with the upper air pattern by Thursday and Friday could mean anything from cloudy cold days to a forecast of possible snow flurries. We’ll have to wait a few more days to get a better understanding of that upper air pattern.

[Portastorm]

(sounding the "warning" siren): "all hands on deck, all hands on deck."

Today's 12z GFS (not to mention the previous 6z run) looks rather ... shall I say ICY, for central Texas during the 96-120 hr time frame.

Accuwx's JB still bullish on winter weather event for our area!

Link to GFS run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Kelarie]

The funny thing is all weather station in Austin have the temps in the 50's and lows in the 30's, with a slight chance of rain. NO talk of anything wintry. I wonder if they will start talking this up or wait until after it has happened.

It is looking more and more likely.

[Portastorm]

The funny thing is all weather station in Austin have the temps in the 50's and lows in the 30's, with a slight chance of rain. NO talk of anything wintry. I wonder if they will start talking this up or wait until after it has happened.

It is looking more and more likely.

Kel, you may have noticed that the Austin/San Antonio NWS office overrnight dropped its forecasted high temps for the Wed-Fri timeframe by about 5-8 degrees. The on-air mets are always slow to react, especially the weekend ones!

Winter weather events are so ridiculously hard to forecast anyhow and who knows what'll happen this week ... but it is looking more and more likely that portions of Texas may be "under the gun" for such an event.

[freeport_texas22]

I don't see any direct indications of icy weather in SE TX on the 06Z or 12Z GFS runs. What I do see is the GFS losing the Arctic air late next week, a common error. Check out the 00Z European for an icy forecast for the deep south:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

You have to look closely, but you can see the Arctic air in place across the Gulf Coast on Thursday and a wave of low pressure forming off the upper TX coast Thursday afternoon. I think the greatest risk of sleet/freezing rain will be northeast of here, from north of Beaumont through central LA and MS, but we could see some very cold rain Thursday mixed with some sleet pellets. Watch for the high staying below 45 if it's raining.

[aggiecutter]

Today's(Dec.4th) Ensembles look awfully cold Monday through Friday. Another thing, keep on eye on the 15th-18th trime-frame as the long-range models are consistently(each run) carving a huge trough in the central and eastern part of the country. I think this will be when the southern plains and Texas will see their first major winter weather outbreak.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[ETXHAMXYL]

WEll Well the NWS has a picture of Snow on Wed and Thursday for NTX. However Accuweather has us in the 50's which is funny, since usually its the other way round. I think it might really come to pass with the white stuff.
Anyone notice a change in the animals? Usually the birds really begin to feast a few days before a big winter outbreak.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS office in Dallas/Ft. Worth is now forecasting snow as far south as Waco! It looks like this may continue to trend further SE over time, and if Joe Bastardi is right, the snow and ice line may reach Houston on Thursday. I don't think some of the models (especially the GFS) are really seeing this situation right, and it probably will not be until 24-48 hrs. before hand until they all start to line up and forecast the same thing. As for the media; some stations are calling for highs as warm as 54 on Thursday here in Houston, and others are calling for as low as 44...These numbers will probably come down to 35-40 on all stations once we are 12-24 hrs. out, as it seems like they are never bold enough to forecast it that cold until it is just about to happen (or is already happening). Anyways, still looks interesting, and as we draw closer, it looks more and more likely that we will see some sort of winter weather event across the state in just 3-4 days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the latest run of the ETA (NAM) brings a cold rain to Houston on Wednesday, changes it to sleet Wednesday night and ends it as snow in Houston on Thursday morning. The other interesting thing is that it shows snow accumulations to 5+" in NE Texas! with even a little accumulation (dusting - 1") in Houston! No NWS office is calling for anything like that right now...but if it plays out, then it could be quite a storm.

[ETXHAMXYL]

What part of NE texas does it show 5+ inches of snow? I live about 75 Southeast of Dallas. Over near the Tyler area in East Texas. Is this anywhere near the area you mentioned? What about the Dallas Area? My husband has to drive up for new job training and I would worry about his travel up there on Wed./Thursday. Do you think he might have travel problems?
I wished the mets would say something, I'd rather be overprepared than under prepared. I'm old enough to remember the ice storms here in 78-79 and the 10 inch snows in Jan of 82.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi is talking about freezing cold all the way to the RGV and the NWS offices in Corpus and Brownsville are not treating this threat with any urgency in their AFD's or extendeds. Even some of you amatuers out here are seeing the dominoes line up

[Extremeweatherguy]

What part of NE texas does it show 5+ inches of snow? I live about 75 Southeast of Dallas. Over near the Tyler area in East Texas. Is this anywhere near the area you mentioned? What about the Dallas Area? My husband has to drive up for new job training and I would worry about his travel up there on Wed./Thursday. Do you think he might have travel problems?
I wished the mets would say something, I'd rather be overprepared than under prepared. I'm old enough to remember the ice storms here in 78-79 and the 10 inch snows in Jan of 82.

The ETA model shows 5+" totals in areas like Dallas and up through Sherman...so if the model is right, then your husband might run into some trouble. As for Tyler, the ETA model is generally showing a dusting to 3" accumulation. Remember though that this is just one model, so it may not be right. The fact that it shows such high totals (up to 10" in areas outside of Dallas) is quite alarming though. May be it is on to something, or may be not...we won't know until it happens. Either way Dallas and Tyler should, at the least, see some light snow flurries and sleet pellets on Wednesday/Thursday...it is just the matter of how heavy the snow/ice is, and how long it lasts that is the problem. We should know more within a day or two.

[ETXHAMXYL]

What a wide range of forecast in such a small part of the State of Texas. On Wed. all mention a cool down, but it ranges from highs of 50 or upper 40's and a few local sites saying in the mid 30's. Almost everyone has us back up into the 50's by the weekend.
Is this blast here for a spell or just passing thru?
Its odd that many people here have said that JB from Accu. said we should bottom out, see frozen temps for several days and it should take awhile to bounce back temp wise, however the forecasts for the area show it in the 50's for almost everyday except for a few 60's during the entire 15 day forecast period. I don't understand why such a difference in what he is saying for NTX and what is being displayed when you search for local forecast in the same area he is mentioning.

[Portastorm]

What a wide range of forecast in such a small part of the State of Texas. On Wed. all mention a cool down, but it ranges from highs of 50 or upper 40's and a few local sites saying in the mid 30's. Almost everyone has us back up into the 50's by the weekend.
Is this blast here for a spell or just passing thru?
Its odd that many people here have said that JB from Accu. said we should bottom out, see frozen temps for several days and it should take awhile to bounce back temp wise, however the forecasts for the area show it in the 50's for almost everyday except for a few 60's during the entire 15 day forecast period. I don't understand why such a difference in what he is saying for NTX and what is being displayed when you search for local forecast in the same area he is mentioning.

There's a fairly lengthy explanation that could be offered here but the long and short of it is that Accuwx's JB is banking heavily on the European model (ECMWF) while the NWS usually goes lock, stock, and barrel with the American model (GFS).

JB usually takes the models and uses forecasting tidbits and known biases of the models to make his bigger picture forecasts. Not all NWS guys do that. Some do in all fairness ... and some are better than others.

And to be fair, JB has certainly had his share of blown forecasts. But overall I believe him to be savvy and fairly reliable. He's been talking about the Texas event for a week now.

I'm sure others here may chime in.