Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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wxmann_91
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#341 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:28 pm

WindRunner wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:Apparently Epsilon has become annular :eek: :

Derek Ortt in his forecast wrote:Epsilon continues to intensify and a very clear eye. it appears if Epsilon has become annular as there are no well defined rain bands, just a donut shaped system. These types of hurricanes usually are fairly stable in intensity; thus, only a very slow weakening is forecast, much slower than guidance. it should be noted that this was forecast yesterday, and we had steady intensification. it must be noted that the GFDL and GFDN indicate intensification to cat 2 intensity, with GFDN very close to cat 3.


A few days ago I would've bet a million dollars if someone said that Epsilon would become annular that he/she would be wrong.


I think he's saying if, because looking at that sat above, that would be the ugliest annular hurricane I've ever seen. It's kind of lopsided, too.


Well you could be right, as there has been some erosion of the southwest side of Epsilon. It should begin to REALLY weaken within the next 12 hours.

As for how Epsilon has maintained itself, the fact it started extratropically may hold some clues. It might be more depending on the difference in temperature between the water and the air, more like an extratrop storm which uses the temp difference between air masses than really using the little available latent heat so far north.
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#342 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:41 pm

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#343 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Dec 04, 2005 12:54 pm

Right over the spot of Hurricane Nicole! :lol:
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#344 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:28 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:This is simply unbelievable- downright shocking- even the hurricane center has no idea why it's strengthening- I TOLD YOU ALL
THAT HURRICANE VOODOO WAS REAL....we have to find the
voodooist... :wink:


It could be a simple matter of cold upper tropospheric temperatures and steep lapse rates which means the overall environment can be a little cooler...including the SST's because it is that much more unstable.

Just a guess.
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#345 Postby superfly » Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:41 pm

It's not annular. If that thing is annular then I'm going to find the cure for cancer.
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#346 Postby WindRunner » Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:47 pm

18Z models, 70kts:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051204 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051204 1800 051205 0600 051205 1800 051206 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 34.3N 38.6W 35.2N 35.6W 36.2N 33.5W 36.5N 32.2W
BAMM 34.3N 38.6W 34.3N 36.3W 34.3N 34.4W 33.7N 33.2W
A98E 34.3N 38.6W 34.5N 36.3W 35.0N 33.9W 35.2N 32.3W
LBAR 34.3N 38.6W 34.6N 36.0W 34.6N 33.7W 34.3N 31.8W
SHIP 70KTS 64KTS 55KTS 46KTS
DSHP 70KTS 64KTS 55KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051206 1800 051207 1800 051208 1800 051209 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 35.5N 32.4W 33.1N 37.0W 27.6N 40.1W 20.6N 41.9W
BAMM 32.6N 33.8W 30.8N 39.0W 26.3N 43.3W 22.4N 46.4W
A98E 34.9N 32.1W 33.7N 32.8W 31.0N 35.4W 27.6N 34.2W
LBAR 33.6N 30.5W 31.0N 30.9W 28.6N 31.9W 25.8N 33.1W
SHIP 37KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.3N LONCUR = 38.6W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 34.4N LONM12 = 41.1W DIRM12 = 89DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 34.5N LONM24 = 43.7W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM

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#347 Postby P.K. » Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:02 pm

Air Force Met wrote:It could be a simple matter of cold upper tropospheric temperatures and steep lapse rates which means the overall environment can be a little cooler...including the SST's because it is that much more unstable.


They were mentioning the 200hPa temperatures yesterday.

EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET.
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#348 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:42 pm

P.K. wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:It could be a simple matter of cold upper tropospheric temperatures and steep lapse rates which means the overall environment can be a little cooler...including the SST's because it is that much more unstable.


They were mentioning the 200hPa temperatures yesterday.

EPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE
RAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A
TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY
OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN
COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE
BEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS
HAPPENING YET.

Ahhhh...thanks. I've been working CONUS weather this weekend and I haven't had a chance to figure it out...but it's the only thing that I could think of to keep that kind of structure and convection iwth those sst's and other factors.
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#349 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 04, 2005 2:47 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:This is simply unbelievable- downright shocking- even the hurricane center has no idea why it's strengthening- I TOLD YOU ALL
THAT HURRICANE VOODOO WAS REAL....we have to find the
voodooist... :wink:


It could be a simple matter of cold upper tropospheric temperatures and steep lapse rates which means the overall environment can be a little cooler...including the SST's because it is that much more unstable.

Just a guess.


I'm thinking that this is a possible reason that acts in collaboration with
other factors that I will designate as "unknowns" at this time...
I'm a fish swimming in murky waters with regards to rationalizing
the enigma behind Epsilon's unanticipated strengthening...
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#350 Postby f5 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:06 pm

i'm goona pull my hair out if we have a major in December a heart attack may come if he reaches CAT 5
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#351 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:19 pm

its very close to meeting the definition of annular as there are no descernable rainbands

also, this probably hasnt weakened to 70KT. Some want to weaken this before it does weaken
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#352 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:27 pm

Epsilon is one crazy cane
Image
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#353 Postby f5 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:48 pm

he trying to pull a Isabel"Donut" appereance but i don't think he will be able to copy Katrina.she had the"Buzzsaw"apperence
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#354 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:51 pm

I would not be suprized if this thing turned due south to 15 north then westward. In bombed into a Major hurricane...
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#355 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:53 pm

Image

The track from the start to what is expected for Epsilon in the next 3 days.No longer NHC expects Epsilon to become extratropical.
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#356 Postby wxmann_91 » Sun Dec 04, 2005 3:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I would not be suprized if this thing turned due south to 15 north then westward. In bombed into a Major hurricane...


The irony about Epsilon is that it has a better chance of remaining a hurricane if it stays at this latitude than if it moves south. The westerlies are well-entrenched across much of the tropical Atlantic, not expected to weaken anytime soon, and this is the area of the steepest lapse rates. These lapse rates aren't so favorable further south.
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#357 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:15 pm

I agree but it still looks good at this moment!
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#358 Postby TheEuropean » Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:18 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree but it still looks good at this moment!


Not as good as he/she/it looked earlier today. The eye is open to the southeast.
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#359 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 04, 2005 5:23 pm

With that eye it looks a little like Wilma while it was centered over Florida!
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#360 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 04, 2005 6:10 pm

Well-Defined structure....
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