Sunday-Monday Mid-Atlantic Event

[WindRunner]

I think we're already seeing a very clear trend for this winter season- a rather strong bias to suppress storms too far south. Although, given a negative NAO, this is not too surprising.

I sure am hoping for a southern bias, even 30 miles would shove me from the 2-4 range into the 6-10 range. It's going to be a pretty tight gradient on the northern side, making it a tough call for all the local mets.

[WindRunner]

LWX is starting to shift things north! Most of metro DC and myself to the west have been shifted from the 1-3 into a higher range 3-6 by the watch product, or 4-8 by the zone forecasts, mostly Monday night however. Roanoke area expecting 6-12 inches, big storm for other areas of SW VA along with W NC and TN area. Seems like a lot of the NWS forecasts are starting to see a more northern shift in the models.

[DS]

I would also say that the shift isn't completely 'north', but instead its more of a track where the low pressure follows the gulf stream and coastline more than the models suggest. This is where the temperature clash and dynamics become maximized.

[Stephanie]

I'm looking at a Winter Storm Warning for 5 - 8 inches of snow from this afternoon through tomorrow morning!

[angelwing]

As soon as I see the first snowflake fall here on base, I'm out of here and heading home. I already told the captain I'm not coming in tomorrow

[Stephanie]

WINTER STORM WARNING
Issue Date: 1154 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005
Expiration: 800 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005


DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-060100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.051205T2100Z-051206T1200Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...
SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA
1153 AM EST MON DEC 5 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

FIVE TO SEVEN INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST.

CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR
FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. A WINTER STORM
WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$


However, TWC just reported only 2 - 4 inches of snow for tonight. They did say earlier 5 - 8 inches. Did the GFS change again?

[angelwing]

Hmmm, the weather channel web page still says 5-7 inches for philly. Inaccu-weather is saying 3-6, TWC on TV is saying 2-4, oh and NBC-10 is saying 5-8, I guess pick one

[WindRunner]

Intereseting AFD from LWX, says the models are drying out the storm some, and they've backed us all down 1-2".

.SHORT TERM...
LOPRES ENTERING SC ATTM. 18Z SNDG LOOKING FVRBL FOR GOOD SNW...W/
WND ALOFT AND COLD PROFILE. HWVR... RADAR JUST ISNT PLAYING OUT
ATTM. AS MNTND ERLR... TRACK/STRENGTH OF LOPRES WL BE THE SAVING
GRACE. GFS/NAM STILL SIMILAR ON TRACK...BUT NOT ON QPF. GFS IS THE
LGTR OF THE TWO...AND APPRS TO BE VERIFYING BTTR. SO...WL START TO
SCALE BACK ON HEADLINES...DROPPING ADVSRYS ENTIRELY IN THE NW...AND
DWNGRADING IN THE SW. ELSW ACCUMS WL BE LWRD BY AN INCH OR TWO. 12Z
GFS/NAM STILL BOTH SHWG GOOD H7-5 FN FORCING...AND AM CONCERNED ABT
A STRONG ALTHO LCLZD BAND...SOMEWHERE IN THE DC/BALT METRO.
DENDRITIC GROWTH LOOKS VERY FVRBL...SO DONT WISH TO SCALE BACK TOO
FAR TOO FAST.

TIMING WISE...MOST EVERYTHING SHUD BE PULLING OUT ARND MIDNGT OR
SOON THRAFTR. GOOD MEAN LYR DRYING COMING IN THRAFTR. WLY FLOW CUD
ENHANCE UPSLOPE POTENTIAL IN THE FAR W...BUT THATS NOT LOOKING ALL
THAT GREAT EITHER. CHC POPS FOR THE WRN RDGS. SCT CLDS E OF THE
RDGLN.

[WindRunner]

BUUUUUUUUUST!!!!!!!


They backed us down another 2-4" and now our totals should be around 2-4". I already have 1.75" on the ground at this point, so not expecting a ton more tonight, maybe another inch or so.

[Lowpressure]

LWX show preliminary 3 inches in Fredericksburg reported by the fire chief. 1-2 more a possibility. Forecast was for 4-8 so it will be on the lower end but not a bust. This was always a Cho-Fburg storm as previous post will show. Richmond even got a little action.
My question would be what, if any effect does this indicate for pattern supression during the upcoming winter? Probably a Don question.

[angelwing]

Litening to NOAA weather and they just said another weather event Thursday night into Friday! (not even an inch here in Philly yet, sigh)

[WindRunner]

LWX show preliminary 3 inches in Fredericksburg reported by the fire chief. 1-2 more a possibility. Forecast was for 4-8 so it will be on the lower end but not a bust. This was always a Cho-Fburg storm as previous post will show. Richmond even got a little action.
My question would be what, if any effect does this indicate for pattern supression during the upcoming winter? Probably a Don question.

They hit it good in the southern region, but the initial WS watch went out calling 4-8 for Warrenton area, as well as both DC/Balt metro. Now they are down to probably a max of three inches if another 1-2 fall tonight. Sure not going to see 4 at my house, probably right around three. I said "bust" because of all of the publicity they gave to this storm. Anyway, it's not going to hit their pre-storm call.

[Brent]

It's snowing in Philadelphia on the Monday Night Football game.

[Stephanie]

It's snowing in Philadelphia on the Monday Night Football game.

It was a pretty sight - the SNOW that is!