Bay of Bengal: Tropical Cyclone Fanoos (06B) - Final Warning

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 92.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 91.4E, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. ADDITIONALLY, EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
DEPICTED A LARGER AND MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
12 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE IMPROVING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.



05/0230 UTC 10.3N 91.7E T1.5/1.5 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

05/0830 UTC 10.7N 91.2E T2.0/2.0 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[HURAKAN]

WTIO21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051421Z DEC 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 91.3E TO 12.1N 88.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
91.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 90.9E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST
OF MADRAS, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL. A 051233Z
SSMI PASS ALSO DEPICTS AN IMPROVED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 061430Z.//




05/1430 UTC 10.3N 89.9E T2.0/2.0 97B -- Bay of Bengal

[James]

Wow, looks pretty well organised at the moment. Thus far it seems that all of the North Indian Ocean activity this year has been located in that general area.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, looks pretty well organised at the moment. Thus far it seems that all of the North Indian Ocean activity this year has been located in that general area.

True, the NIO has been very active over the last few weeks.

[RattleMan]

It's now 06B.NONAME, per NRL.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Up to T2.5

06/0200 UTC 10.8N 88.5E T2.5/2.5 06B

[Coredesat]

WTIO31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051421ZDEC2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 11.2N 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 11.6N 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 11.7N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.6N 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.4N 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST OF
MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE. INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR SLOWLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL OUT-
FLOW. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
051421Z DEC 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
051430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.//

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

06/0200 UTC 10.8N 88.5E T2.5/2.5 06B -- Bay of Bengal

[P.K.]

No. BOB/12/2005/01 Dated : 06th December, 2005

Subject: Pre-Cyclone watch.

A depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lay centered at 0830 IST of 06th December, 2005 neat Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 89.50 E about 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 3 days.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Bay Islands during next 24 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period.

State of the sea near Bay Islands will be rough to very rough. Fishermen in these area are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HurricaneBill]

I'm just glad a cyclone didn't form after the tsunami last year. That would have been terrible.

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

Upgraded to a deep depression.

Track

No. BOB/12/2005/03

Dated : 06th December, 2005

Subject: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 1430 IST of 06th December, 2005 neat Lat. 11.00 N and Long. 89.00 E about 950 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

The numerical weather prediction products suggest that this system is likely to move towards Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 3 days.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is likely over Bay Islands during next 24 hours. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period.

State of the sea near Bay Islands will be rough to very rough. Fishermen in these area are advised not to venture into the sea.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

I have been trying to find a reliable source from where to get the historical statistics of the North Indian Ocean and I have been unsuccessful, but it will be interesting to know when was the last time that the NIO had 6 tropical systems or more. Unisys says that it was 1999.

[HURAKAN]

06/0830 UTC 12.1N 88.6E T2.5/2.5 06B -- Bay of Bengal


NO CHANGE!

[shunshu]

I'm just glad a cyclone didn't form after the tsunami last year. That would have been terrible.

things are equally bad now. all rivers, dams and tanks are over flowing. more than 200 lives have been lost in this monsoon season. reports say its the worst floods tamil nadu has seen in 25 years. usually this state and the capital suffers from major water crisis in summer, now we have a different kind of problem!

[HURAKAN]

I'm just glad a cyclone didn't form after the tsunami last year. That would have been terrible.

things are equally bad now. all rivers, dams and tanks are over flowing. more than 200 lives have been lost in this monsoon season. reports say its the worst floods tamil nadu has seen in 25 years. usually this state and the capital suffers from major water crisis in summer, now we have a different kind of problem!

CRISIS AFTER CRISIS, IT SEEMS THEY NEVER STOP COMING.

[HURAKAN]

06/1430 UTC 11.6N 87.7E T3.0/3.0 06B -- Bay of Bengal


STRONGER NOW!