The Space Weather effect upon Epsilon

[btangy]

I am skeptical of your analysis without any robust statistical backing. It is dangerous just to 'observe' a pattern because one may not exist without any sort of objective criterion to back ones' arguments. I've been guilty of looking at data myself and thinking there were correlations when there wasn't any statistically significant present. I am no expert on space weather so I cannot point to anything against your hypothesis, but what your proposing is that somehow the information from the solar flare is travelling down from the upper atmosphere into the troposphere and somehow affecting the thermodynamic or dynamic conditions. Via waves or radiative forcing feedbacks perhaps? But, how much of a contribution does it have compared to the much beloved MJO or other equatorial waves, which have a established significant effect on intraseasonal variability? I would think a small amount. Do your theories apply to all tropical cyclones around the globe? Are there bursts of activity globally during strong flares? Seasonally, does above normal flare activity during the year imply an increase in annual TC activity (frequency, intensity, ACE, etc.) globally, not just in the Atlantic.

[WxGuy1]

I am skeptical of your analysis without any robust statistical backing. It is dangerous just to 'observe' a pattern because one may not exist without any sort of objective criterion to back ones' arguments. I've been guilty of looking at data myself and thinking there were correlations when there wasn't any statistically significant present. I am no expert on space weather so I cannot point to anything against your hypothesis, but what your proposing is that somehow the information from the solar flare is travelling down from the upper atmosphere into the troposphere and somehow affecting the thermodynamic or dynamic conditions. Via waves or radiative forcing feedbacks perhaps? But, how much of a contribution does it have compared to the much beloved MJO or other equatorial waves, which have a established significant effect on intraseasonal variability? I would think a small amount. Do your theories apply to all tropical cyclones around the globe? Are there bursts of activity globally during strong flares? Seasonally, does above normal flare activity during the year imply an increase in annual TC activity (frequency, intensity, ACE, etc.) globally, not just in the Atlantic.

I'll echo those comments... I'm not sure how activity in the ionosphere can affect the sensible weather appreciably in the troposphere. I don't know as if I understand how space weather events can affect the thermodynamic or kinetic flow and structure in the lowest ~15km of the atmosphere.

[Wthrman13]

I am skeptical of your analysis without any robust statistical backing. It is dangerous just to 'observe' a pattern because one may not exist without any sort of objective criterion to back ones' arguments. I've been guilty of looking at data myself and thinking there were correlations when there wasn't any statistically significant present. I am no expert on space weather so I cannot point to anything against your hypothesis, but what your proposing is that somehow the information from the solar flare is travelling down from the upper atmosphere into the troposphere and somehow affecting the thermodynamic or dynamic conditions. Via waves or radiative forcing feedbacks perhaps? But, how much of a contribution does it have compared to the much beloved MJO or other equatorial waves, which have a established significant effect on intraseasonal variability? I would think a small amount. Do your theories apply to all tropical cyclones around the globe? Are there bursts of activity globally during strong flares? Seasonally, does above normal flare activity during the year imply an increase in annual TC activity (frequency, intensity, ACE, etc.) globally, not just in the Atlantic.

I'll echo those comments... I'm not sure how activity in the ionosphere can affect the sensible weather appreciably in the troposphere. I don't know as if I understand how space weather events can affect the thermodynamic or kinetic flow and structure in the lowest ~15km of the atmosphere.

Agreed, especially when you consider that atmosphere above the stratosphere contains less than 1% of the total mass of the atmosphere.

[Jim Hughes]

I am skeptical of your analysis without any robust statistical backing. It is dangerous just to 'observe' a pattern because one may not exist without any sort of objective criterion to back ones' arguments. I've been guilty of looking at data myself and thinking there were correlations when there wasn't any statistically significant present. I am no expert on space weather so I cannot point to anything against your hypothesis, but what your proposing is that somehow the information from the solar flare is travelling down from the upper atmosphere into the troposphere and somehow affecting the thermodynamic or dynamic conditions. Via waves or radiative forcing feedbacks perhaps? But, how much of a contribution does it have compared to the much beloved MJO or other equatorial waves, which have a established significant effect on intraseasonal variability? I would think a small amount. Do your theories apply to all tropical cyclones around the globe? Are there bursts of activity globally during strong flares? Seasonally, does above normal flare activity during the year imply an increase in annual TC activity (frequency, intensity, ACE, etc.) globally, not just in the Atlantic.

I have gone over just about all of the above questions in prior discussions. So I hope you can understand that I can not spend my time going over certain things time and time again just because someone new has come across one of my discussions. I apologize to you if this seems rude because I am not trying to be.

A forum search of my posts could answer most your questions.

Here's a synopsis on me and some of this. I have been using some of these variables during the past ten years in regards to how I have come up with different types of weather/climate forecasts.

I do not think that all areas are effected by this at the same time and this most likely has to do with magnetic field vectors. (Read Baranyi research papers.)

I also believe that the earth's electrical environment is constantly in touch with the sun's IMF and certain weather/climate patterns occur more frequently as the morphology of the IMF changes.

Certain IMF components seem to enhance the chances for certain weather/climate events and this means that certain favorable conditions will end up being in place for something like a tropical system to form. The dice get loaded in other words.

As far as the MJO etc.. Of course it matters and I have never said otherwise. I have just recently been pointing out that Epsilon is going against standard meteorological beliefs and some of the NHC discussions have pointed towards this. Although some around here seem to think otherwise.

Now I have heard more recently about the colder troposphere being important here. Well I would hate to rain on everyone's parade but this may also be space weather related. I have written about this variable relationship with temperature trends for the past 7-8 years. I am referring to coronal holes here.

I even sent out a discussion about this in regards to a recurrent coronal hole's influence upon the temperature trend patterns in the Washington DC area between October 1999- May 2000. I gave out statistics involving seven different eight day groups. (Observed Temperatures: Mean, low, and high, Daily averages , final anomalies.)

I separated every individual eight day period into two parts. Cold (3 days) and warm days (Five days) The variable for starting the warm period was when the coronal windstream/sector change was starting to occur and the proton density level was to reach the 10 p/cc level.

I believe this possible relationship had an effect upon the atmospheric steering currents. This than had a great influence upon the warmer than average winter that year for Washington DC. (The NAO was positive)

Some eight day groups had a 15 plus degree anomaly difference between the warm and cold day groups during the eight day period. The amplitude of the jet stream was very strong.

I believe the overall pattern ended up showing an approximate 9 degree temperature anomaly difference between the 15 warm days and the 35 cold days. The average would have been much higher if it had not been for the one group in February. That warm group never occurred after a Northeaster ended up pulling down extremely cold air. (Flaring/Solar eruptions preceded the formation of this coastal storm)

I have sent this coronal hole discussion out to numerous people over the years. (TWC experts , many local DC meteorologists, and to many others around the USA and a few in other parts of the world.) Two of these recipients were Sallie Baluinas and Willie Soon of Harvard. I had sent it to these two because they also had found a coronal hole relationship with the tropospheric temperature trends. Sallie e-mailed me back after she had received this discussion and asked for permission to send it on to Willie Soon but I than informed her that I had already sent it to him.

I believe this solar cycle's different behavior , compared to the prior few, is related to how the sun's poles have not strengthened that much yet. This has caused an intense increase to be seen in solar flaring/eruptions at this stage of the solar cycle. (5 1/2 years after maximum.)

The weaker poles are also related to increased coronal hole area as well as the frequency of their appearance. Weaker poles increase the chances of appearance/areal coverage. This is part of the solar dynamo process. This is why they are larger, especially equatorial wise, around solar maximum. (Poles change polarity).

I do not believe that Cycle 23's peculiarity is unrelated to what we have been seeing in the Atlantic basin this year.

In other words the visible presence of coronal holes on the sun , or us being under the influence of a coronal windstream, like we have been for the last several days, is very important to the possible feedbacks between the earth's electrical environment and the troposphere/ atmosphere.

These variables, along with certain enhanced particle levels seem to consistently show up in tandem with tropical enhancement in the Atlantic basin.

Now I am sure certain other areas must be effected and things like the MJO, AMO etc.. must play a role here but the relationship with the Atlantic may be easier to see do to the tilt of the magnetic field.

You also must consider that research by Tinsley and many others has also pointed out possible relationships with the solar wind (Modulating) and the NAO and AO. This could also be a strong factor here.

My last discussion "Stratosphere, Ozone and how this effects the AMO cycle"

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

may also tie into all of this. Coronal hole changes along with certain particle levels may have an influence upon certain atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections. All of these change the feedback process and certain phases will occur because the dice will be loaded. (Cooler stratosphere etc..)

These phases will than have an effect upon the cyclical nature of certain weather/climate events in different parts of the world.

I believe the extreme tropical season in the Atlantic, during 2005, may be an example of this possible relationship.

I hope that I have showed you at the very least that this is not some unsubstantiated forecasting scheme that I have tried to come forward with. I think it has foundation and I have been researching and monitoring numerous things over the years in hopes of combining them altogether. I feel like I am on to something. Maybe I have peaked your curiosity.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Just one question,

how come none of this work has been presented at either a conference or in a peer reviewed journal?

Derek I have answered this question, within this forum, at least two or three times and maybe even more. I completely understand your stance and I respect your opinion of both me and my methodology.

I think it is very safe to say that you and I are cut from a different cloth and you are more conservative while I am more open minded. Looking into this relationship is really no different than one pondering the jet stream relationship eons ago. (Hell we did not even know about that for a good deal of time.)

So nobody in meteorology thought that it mattered because we could not even comprehend the relationship. So maybe this is the same thing.



Jim

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was taught from Debate Seminars that for every valid
argument there are warrants and impacts, substantial
evidence to back up the assertion as well as mechanisms to
connect the reasoning based on how it impacts a major process
being debated.

This space weather relationship looks like a good factor....the
arguments are highly substantiated with mechanisms (solar flares
and stratospheric teleconnections) that seem to provide a good
foundation for the existence of space-weather and earth-weather
relationships IMO...Moreover the NHC forecasters themselves declared
this morning that they could not explain Epsilon's strengthening...so
it became obvious to me that there is some factor that is effecting
Epsilon and that is unknown to the NHC as well as most scientists
at this time. Space weather could be this factor...which is why this
area is starting to interest me...

[Derek Ortt]

why dont you try and sumbit this. If a perr reviewed journal rejects you, submit it to a conference, which is FAR more open and present your findings. I would be open to hearing about this... just in a scientific setting as this is an entirely new theory (just like I do not present new research here, but wait for either a conference or a presentation)

[btangy]

Maybe I have peaked your curiosity.

Indeed you have. Though I must stress with Epsilon, the most probable explanation is that the thermodynamic environment around it is more unstable than usual. This did develop from a cold core storm with broad cyclonic flow aloft, so an upper level cold anomaly probably still persists. When this happens, lower SSTs can support hurricanes.

[WxGuy1]

This space weather relationship looks like a good factor....the
arguments are highly substantiated with mechanisms (solar flares
and stratospheric teleconnections) that seem to provide a good
foundation for the existence of space-weather and earth-weather
relationships IMO...Moreover the NHC forecasters themselves declared
this morning that they could not explain Epsilon's strengthening...so
it became obvious to me that there is some factor that is effecting
Epsilon and that is unknown to the NHC as well as most scientists
at this time. Space weather could be this factor...which is why this
area is starting to interest me...

I'm not sure any physical relationships between space weather at 100km and sensible weather below 12km have been "highly substantiated" yet.

[Jim Hughes]

why dont you try and sumbit this. If a perr reviewed journal rejects you, submit it to a conference, which is FAR more open and present your findings. I would be open to hearing about this... just in a scientific setting as this is an entirely new theory (just like I do not present new research here, but wait for either a conference or a presentation)

Derek I am a very open person and I have talked about my shortcomings before in regards to proper statistical analysis. I also talked about a failed attempt back in 1995 regarding the planets effect upon the sunspot cycle.

Could I learn it ? Probably but my current family life style dictates that I can not go to school right now. Even night school. So my clock is ticking and I turn 46 next week.

Posts like this, or several rare weekend ones, like this past, are done when I have free time and not when I would like to. Yesterday's semi long response to btangy was written in bits and pieces over a 3-5 hour period in which I came back and forth to the computer while watching and interacting with my five year old twins while my wife was out shopping.

I will stay on line within this forum overnight sometimes, just to save me some time from reentering (I may wake up in the middle of the night with some energy.) And I have broadband now.

I realize how things are supposed to work and I very much respect this. But I really feel like I can contribute to these subject matters , in this somewhat unscientific manner , at this current stage in my life.

What would happen if I chose to quit talking about these relationships while trying to write up something and something happened to me during the long process of gathering the material? That may never be accepted anyway.

I would rather have controversy down the road in regards to who brought this forward then to have it never come forward. Praise/credit is nice but that is really not the issue here. Trying to figure out what is going on is much more important from where I stand.

I thank you for your advice and comments.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Maybe I have peaked your curiosity.

Indeed you have. Though I must stress with Epsilon, the most probable explanation is that the thermodynamic environment around it is more unstable than usual. This did develop from a cold core storm with broad cyclonic flow aloft, so an upper level cold anomaly probably still persists. When this happens, lower SSTs can support hurricanes.

Well I am glad that you are at least curious. That's a start. I am currently trying to gather my thoughts for another discussion . I will try and add some insight into some of the things that I briefly talked to you about. I hope to post it by later this evening.



Jim

[Dick Pache]

New Weather like techniques for looking at ionosphere announced today by NASA and NSF at the American Geophysical Union Meetingin SFO
View of the Upper Atmosphere

Scientists from NASA and the National Science Foundation discovered a way to combine ground and space observations to create an unprecedented view of upper atmosphere disturbances during space storms.

Large, global-scale disturbances resemble weather cold fronts. They form in the Earth's electrified upper atmosphere during space storms. The disturbances result from plumes of electrified plasma that form in the ionosphere. When the plasma plumes pass overhead, they impede low and high frequency radio communications and delay Global Positioning System navigation signals.

"Previously, they seemed like random events," said John Foster, associate director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Haystack Observatory. He is principal investigator of the Foundation supported Millstone Hill Observatory, Wesford, Mass.

"People knew there was a space storm that must have disrupted their system, but they had no idea why," said Tony Mannucci, group supervisor of Ionospheric and Atmospheric Remote Sensing at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "Now we know it's not just chaos; there is cause and effect. We are beginning to put together the full picture, which will ultimately let us predict space storms."

Predicting space weather is a primary goal of the National Space Weather Program involving NASA, the foundation and several other federal agencies. The view researchers created allowed them to link movement of the plumes to processes that release plasma into space. "Discovering this link is like discovering the movement of cold fronts is responsible for sudden thunderstorms," said Jerry Goldstein, principal scientist at the Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio.

Since the occurrence of plasma plumes in the ionosphere disrupts GPS signals, they provide a continuous monitor of these disturbances. Researchers discovered a link between GPS data and satellite images of the plasmasphere. The plasmasphere is a plasma cloud surrounding Earth above the ionosphere. It is being observed from NASA's Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration satellite. The researchers discovered the motion of the ionospheric plumes corresponded to the ejection of plasma from the plasmasphere during space storms.

The combined observations allowed construction of an underlying picture of the processes during space storms, when the Earth's magnetic field is buffeted by hot plasma from the sun. As the solar plasma blows by, it generates an electric field that is transmitted to the plasmasphere and ionosphere. This electric field propels the ionospheric and the plasmaspheric plasma out into space. For the first time, scientists can directly connect the plasma observed in the ionosphere with the plasmasphere plumes that extend many thousand of kilometers into space.

"We also know these disturbances occur most often between noon and dusk, and between mid to high latitudes, due to the global structure of the electric and magnetic fields during space storms," said Anthea Coster of the Haystack Observatory. "Ground and space based, and in situ measurements are allowing scientists to understand the ionosphere-thermosphere-magnetosphere as a coupled system."

The plumes degrade GPS signals in two primary ways. First, they cause position error by time delaying the propagation of GPS signals. Second, the turbulence they generate causes receivers to lose the signal through an effect known as scintillation. It is similar to the apparent twinkling of stars caused by atmospheric turbulence.

Researchers are presenting the findings today during the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, Calif.

Source: NASA This news is brought to you by PhysOrg.com
http://www.physorg.com/news8722.html

[regg001]

I'm not so sure either about such relationship.

Someone mentionned Epsilon and the renewed strenght it took over the weekend. OK,,, but ,,, there was no significant solar activity since december 2nd.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but i don't think spatial weather has an immediate effect on the earth weather - still i do beleive there is surely a relationship between them, but on a long term (very long term effects).

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This space weather relationship looks like a good factor....the
arguments are highly substantiated with mechanisms (solar flares
and stratospheric teleconnections) that seem to provide a good
foundation for the existence of space-weather and earth-weather
relationships IMO...Moreover the NHC forecasters themselves declared
this morning that they could not explain Epsilon's strengthening...so
it became obvious to me that there is some factor that is effecting
Epsilon and that is unknown to the NHC as well as most scientists
at this time. Space weather could be this factor...which is why this
area is starting to interest me...

I'm not sure any physical relationships between space weather at 100km and sensible weather below 12km have been "highly substantiated" yet.

Alright, I'll change to partly substantiated instead of highly substantiated

[Jim Hughes]

I'm not so sure either about such relationship.

Someone mentionned Epsilon and the renewed strenght it took over the weekend. OK,,, but ,,, there was no significant solar activity since december 2nd.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but i don't think spatial weather has an immediate effect on the earth weather - still i do beleive there is surely a relationship between them, but on a long term (very long term effects).

Everyone has the right to an opinion. OTOH I also think that it would be more fair if you were to actually refer to what I have been talking about if you are going to downplay the possible relationship.

You mention only solar activty. I would not confuse this with space weather. We were seeing higher particle levels during Epsilon's strengthening phase towards hurricane status. Some are still high.



Jim

[TheEuropean]

Everyone has the right to an opinion. OTOH I also think that it would be more fair if you were to actually refer to what I have been talking about if you are going to downplay the possible relationship.

You mention only solar activty. I would not confuse this with space weather. We were seeing higher particle levels during Epsilon's strengthening phase towards hurricane status. Some are still high.

Jim

Hi Jim,

do you have statistics for at least 100 storms? If you can prove your theory than please post it here and I may accept it. I can't see any relationship for the short term, for me it's something like chemtrails or so...

[Jim Hughes]

Everyone has the right to an opinion. OTOH I also think that it would be more fair if you were to actually refer to what I have been talking about if you are going to downplay the possible relationship.

You mention only solar activty. I would not confuse this with space weather. We were seeing higher particle levels during Epsilon's strengthening phase towards hurricane status. Some are still high.

Jim

Hi Jim,

do you have statistics for at least 100 storms? If you can prove your theory than please post it here and I may accept it. I can't see any relationship for the short term, for me it's something like chemtrails or so...

I may be able to put together a 100 storm data base. Especially since 2005 was so active. Although I may just end up using 2003-2005 as a shorter data base. This would allow others to look over the data base/relationship better. I know of a website that will tell you almost everyhting. The daily solar wind speed. flaring /eruptions, coronal hole activity etc..

One other note European. I see you are from Germany so you might not be aware of this. A coastal storm was forecast for the Midatlantic / northeast , for yesterday through today. Now I have spoken before about the need for eruptional activity to form/enhance these storms. (Or one other variable which was lacking.)

Sunday's forecast had Washington DC in the 4-8 inch range. I heard one or two local OCM's last night say that the low pressure not only stayed more to the south (Usual local excuse) but it also did not deepen as much as anticipated. (Not sure how true this is.)

DCA had only received about an inch as of late last night. I am sure it got a little more but the storm was definitely not as bad as anticipated.

If anyone has read my comments over the summer I have talked about how this methodology can help your outlooks on storms. The lack of eruptions, along with some other variable, pointed towards an east coast storm having a much harder time to both form and strengthen rapidly.

In my opinion this may have just be another example of what I have been talking about. The magnetically complexed group, which is where all of the prior flaring/eruptions had originated from , has been quiet the past 2-3 days.

BTW do not confuse the presence of increased particle levels, possibly keeping one storm storm afloat , with one actually forming. I have observed over the years that these are two different matters.


Jim

[terstorm1012]

Jim,

I dunno if you absolutely have to be a student to present at a conference. Personally, and I've told you this before, I'm sold on your theory. Your evidence has come true every single time since I've started following your posts---around the time Katrina was meanacing the central Gulf. You say there's solar activity and theres a storm---bam, it stregthens.

I would love to see this in a journal or on a website so that it is more in the public domain than this one. Hell, put up a Wikipedia entry if need be!

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,

I dunno if you absolutely have to be a student to present at a conference. Personally, and I've told you this before, I'm sold on your theory. Your evidence has come true every single time since I've started following your posts---around the time Katrina was meanacing the central Gulf. You say there's solar activity and theres a storm---bam, it stregthens.

I would love to see this in a journal or on a website so that it is more in the public domain than this one. Hell, put up a Wikipedia entry if need be!

Thanks terstorm1012. Maybe you should read my new post. It deals with some things that I have never really extensively talked about within this forum. I also try and pull some other things into the picture.

Jim