Snow for Texas

[Portastorm]

... and I might add that NWS offices are now hedging their bets some now. Here is an example. It is from the Austin/San Antonio NWS office, their forecast update just issued:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING ON THE VERGE OF
MOVING THRU BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST MOVING EASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE CWFA. ALTHOUGH STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE COAST SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

NEXT COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS IS OVERRUN BY PACIFIC MOISTURE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL INCONSISTENT ON PCPN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND COUNTIES NORTH OF AUSTIN WHEN
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. WINTERY PCPN IS NOT IN
THE FCST ATTM...BUT BEARS WATCHING.

[PTrackerLA]

We aren't even forecasted to go below freezing through the next week. Hard to imagine a frozen precip event around here .

[aggiecutter]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 042145
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OVER CENTRAL LA INTO MS
THIS AFTERNOON...AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE N PLAINS...SW
INTO THE ROCKIES AND S AZ/NM BEGINS TO SWING E ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z GFS HAS INITIALIZED BETTER WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MORESO THAN THE NAM...THUS WILL BASE FORECAST SIMILAR FOR
THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHIFTS CONVECTION OUT OF THE REGION A LITTLE
SOONER THAN THE NAM. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/KSHV VAD WINDS INDICATE A
925MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM DEEP E TX TO JUST S OF I-20 IN N LA
INTO N MS...AND LOW CLOUD DEPARTURE WILL GREATLY DETERMINE HOW MUCH
TEMPS WILL FALL TONIGHT...AS COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE MORE STUBBORN TO LEAVE
OVER MUCH OF N LA/PERHAPS DEEP E TX AND S AR FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...THUS WILL TREND TEMPS A TAD ABOVE MOS FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE
ALSO TRENDED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SE ZONES...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTS E AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. WESTERLY FLOW RESUMES BENEATH NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
ONTARIO...WHILE A CANADIAN RIDGE WILL BUILDS S INTO TX MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SHIFTING E OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...AND VERY
DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL AFTER SUNSET...THUS A GOOD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED. BY TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY COMMENCES...WITH
HIGH TEMPS WARMING ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

HOWEVER...HERE IS WHERE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE LATTER
STAGES OF THE NAM...AS WELL AS THE UKMET/ECMWF/DGEX ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE AFOREMENTIONED ONTARIO LONG WAVE DIVING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY...ENTERING THE S PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THESE MODELS INDICATE
STRONG ARCTIC RIDGING WILL FORCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH A ~1038 MB HIGH BUILDING S INTO NE/KS AND N
OK. THUS DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE TROUGH AXIS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ROTATES E ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/TEMP PROFILES INDICATE A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX SCENARIO
SETTING UP ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX AND NW LA...AND POINTS
N/NW...AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
TX. THESE PROGS SHOW THE 850MB O DEGREE ISOTHERM ALONG A LFK...TO AEX
LINE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH DEEPER SUBFREEZING TEMPS BENEATH THIS
LAYER FILTERING IN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR/E TX. THE GFS REMAINS TH SOLE
OUTLIER AGAIN TODAY...KEEPING THE W-E TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NE/IA. BASED
ON THIS DATA...AND THE FACT THAT THE REGION COULD LIE IN THE RRQ OF
THE 110 KT JET BY THIS TIME TO FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT...WILL CARRY THE
WINTRY MIX MENTION A LITTLE FARTHER S TO I-20...AND BRING THIS MENTION
IN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ATTM...BUT THE NEW 18Z NAM INDICATING
MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION/INCREASING OMEGA /12 -UBAR/S/ A
LITTLE FARTHER N OVER NE TX/NW LA/SW AR/SE OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
/FASTER THAN THE 12Z RUN/. IF THIS IS INDEED THE CASE...THEN POPS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED DURING THE MID SHIFT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT SE ZONES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E THROUGH THE REGION. WILL ALSO KEEP
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS PROGRESSIVE FLOW...MAINTAINING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What a wide range of forecast in such a small part of the State of Texas. On Wed. all mention a cool down, but it ranges from highs of 50 or upper 40's and a few local sites saying in the mid 30's. Almost everyone has us back up into the 50's by the weekend.
Is this blast here for a spell or just passing thru?
Its odd that many people here have said that JB from Accu. said we should bottom out, see frozen temps for several days and it should take awhile to bounce back temp wise, however the forecasts for the area show it in the 50's for almost everyday except for a few 60's during the entire 15 day forecast period. I don't understand why such a difference in what he is saying for NTX and what is being displayed when you search for local forecast in the same area he is mentioning.

There's a fairly lengthy explanation that could be offered here but the long and short of it is that Accuwx's JB is banking heavily on the European model (ECMWF) while the NWS usually goes lock, stock, and barrel with the American model (GFS).

JB usually takes the models and uses forecasting tidbits and known biases of the models to make his bigger picture forecasts. Not all NWS guys do that. Some do in all fairness ... and some are better than others.

And to be fair, JB has certainly had his share of blown forecasts. But overall I believe him to be savvy and fairly reliable. He's been talking about the Texas event for a week now.

I'm sure others here may chime in.

I know JB gets alot of heat from some folks , (especially on Wright weather board) for blowing forecasts and the such when his record is probably in line with most Forecast Metos. He rightfully gets taken to the woodshead for overhyping some events, but that's what you get when you stick your neck out. If JB and his employer were that bad all of the time, he would be out of job and Accuweather would be out of business.

Having said that, I think JB has a darn good track record with weather in Texas because he has alot of clientle here. Last year, he was right on the mark with the South Texas snow and he just didn't suggest we were going to get a light dusting too. He said it was going to historic and by golly it was. And he has a pretty good grasp on cold weather events as he is the primary weather forecaster for the Ag radio (KURV) in the RGV. If I was down there and saw the Citirus and Veggie farmers working on overdrive before any potnetial cold event, it's a good chance they are realying more on JB than the NWS. So I hope they dusting off their plans right now.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Just needed to clarify something I posted about the wide range of forecast and JB from Accuweather. Let me make my question more clear.

Accuweather has us in the 50's to 60's for NTX for the 15 day forecast.
I assume that JB is from Accuweather and thought accuweather would follow his line of thinking on the cold, but it isn't showing that in their forecast. So is Accuweather using another model that is different from what JB is using? I guess maybe I was thinking that JB was the accuweather met who decided what the forecasting would be for the site

Also how far out from an event before things fall into shape? I know it constantly changes from run to run, but on avg. how many runs consistant do they have to be before things are announced? It seems like most of Y'all on here have it pegged long before the Local guys get it right. Guess as an armchair met. you are not under so much pressure as the on air guys are at making a statement.

[txprog]

JB is usually very good in the short and medium range with this kind of thing. Yes, he often over hypes the cold and he may be doing so this time. But he usually has the right ideas. Don't pay attention to the Accuweather long range forecast. It might be right, but every other forecast I've seen is much colder. It's in the long range I think that JB's winter forecasting for Texas has not been that good, especially the last few years. If I recall correctly, he predicted slightly below normal for the DJF period the last couple of years and this did not verify. The cold that went into the east was always going to spread out he said, but it never really did. That prompted me to ask him what kind of conditions we needed to generate cold spells like we had in 83 and 89. His answer was a negative NAO and a retrograding trough. It seems that every time it gets cold down here, at least lately, the pattern is too progressive to lock it in for more than a couple of days.

I really don't hold much hope for this winter, what with the long range forecasts from the NWS, DT, WSI, and Accuweather. DT said there would be few if any arctic intrusions in the lower plains. But with a lot of cold air in the CONUS the way some are predicting, maybe enough will make it down our way to make things interesting and enjoyable. Perhaps this coming week's cold snap will not be an isolated event the way the late January spell was in the horrible 99-2000 winter.

My best JB story is two years ago, about three weeks before a trip east in mid-January to spend time with family when it was quite warm back there, JB was honking about coming cold. I emailed him, told him I was headed to the Philly area in three weeks and was hoping to do some ice skating outside on frozen pond. Should I bring my skates? "Bring the skates" was his simple reply. He was right. The skating was terrific. But I was skating on a great pond in the adult community my folks live in and some old lady called the cops on me...

[ETXHAMXYL]

That was a funny story. My hubby is from Philly. Then he moved to Missouri Ozarks and was a Philly Billy, but when he moved to Texas I called him my Philly Bubba. LOL He said he hated the winters in Philly and loves the warm winters here. I have tried to convince him that we sometimes get cold winters, but he laughs when people get all excited over 40 degree days and we are all out buying milk and bread. He said people in philly on a 40 degree day would be out sun tanning. LOL
I just wished once that we'd get some frozen stuff down here with the cold. I don't want him to think it never does get cold or white.

Hope JB is correct on this one for Texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0Z run of the GFS has brought back the idea of snow/ice to Texas (which it lost for a good deal yesterday). It brings a band of snow towards and into Houston during Thursday with a sleet/rain mixture occuring before hand. It looks like it would all be light though, so a significant accumulation is not likely. The NWS is currently not forecasting this, but many around the area have the chance in thier forecast. For example, Austin has the forecast of rain/sleet for Wed. night, which is the same for places like Lufkin. Also, Waco has a forecast of rain/snow turning to flurries. All Houston has right now is a forecast of middle 30s with rain; we'll see what happens...

[Portastorm]

Just needed to clarify something I posted about the wide range of forecast and JB from Accuweather. Let me make my question more clear.

Accuweather has us in the 50's to 60's for NTX for the 15 day forecast.
I assume that JB is from Accuweather and thought accuweather would follow his line of thinking on the cold, but it isn't showing that in their forecast. So is Accuweather using another model that is different from what JB is using? I guess maybe I was thinking that JB was the accuweather met who decided what the forecasting would be for the site

Also how far out from an event before things fall into shape? I know it constantly changes from run to run, but on avg. how many runs consistant do they have to be before things are announced? It seems like most of Y'all on here have it pegged long before the Local guys get it right. Guess as an armchair met. you are not under so much pressure as the on air guys are at making a statement.

The 15-day Accuweather forecast you are referring to is just a computer-driven set of numbers derived from the American (GFS) model. It is what you may have seen referred to on this board as "GFS MOS output."

[jeff]

Potential winter weather event shaping up for portions of TX this week.



Cold Canadian air mass has invaded the region this morning and the record highs of Saturday are long gone for a while. Temps. will struggle to reach 60 today under strong cold air advection and increasing jet stream cirrus. Most areas north of I-10 will likely have a light freeze tonight and this will also include areas south of I-10 away from the coast and outside the Beltway.



Mid Week:



Deep central US trough will carve out by mid week sending a large 1040mb arctic high southward into the plains. This air mass has origins from Siberia and extreme N Alaska so it will be quite cold. Arctic boundary should enter the US late Monday and arrive into north TX late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temps will plummet behind this front with strong north winds and very cold wind chill readings. Should see single digit temps into the panhandle Wednesday evening with wind chills in the -10 to -5 range. Arctic boundary will reach the coast late Wednesday with falling day time temps. at all locations post frontal passage. Arctic air dome will be in place by Wednesday evening with very cold surface conditions across all of TX. Freezing line will progress southward into our counties by early evening.



Precip & P-Type Issues:



Short wave which will help drive the arctic front through the region will also induce a coastal trough and surface low off the lower TX coast early Wednesday. This system will ride NE up the coast along the arctic boundary spreading moisture northward into the cold air. Current model cross sections from the GFS and ETA suggest all precipitation modes are likely across TX on Wednesday into early Thursday. 540 m thickness is forecast to dip as far south as the Temple/ Waco area and this should be the dividing line for rain/snow. 850mb 32F (0C) line is forecast to be along a line from C LA to just north of Conroe to Columbus by late Wednesday night and this should be the dividing line between freezing rain/sleet and plain rain.



Critical period will be Wednesday night across the northern 1/3rd of the area as surface temps fall to or below freezing. Light stratiform rain may change to freezing rain resulting in icing of power lines, trees, and bridges. Ice pellets (Sleet) may mix with the freezing rain although the best chance for sleet is from north of San Antonio to Austin. Cold air dome should deepen over time ending the precip from west to east. It is very possible that the precip. may end before the temp. or temp profiles are favorable for frozen or freezing precip. As with any winter weather event timing is the key along with the temp. profile and moisture considerations, as such the period Wednesday through Thursday is extremely low confidence.



Temps. should fall Wednesday as the arctic boundary moves through. GFS finally has grasped the intensity of this air mass and has a high of 45 for IAH on Thursday. Highs in the lower to mid 40’s look good for Thursday. If skies clear Thursday night, Friday morning could be very cold with lows well into the 20’s, however there is too much uncertainty at this time as to if the skies will clear.



Clouds thicken again by Friday with an active sub-tropical jet and the possible approach of another short wave. Cold arctic dome will be slow to modify and below normal temps. will remain in place through the weekend into early next week. According to the GFS we may have to contend with P-type problems again Friday night and Saturday, however other models do not support precip. during this period, so I will disregard the GFS as an outlier for now.

[Kelarie]

This is a bit of discussion from the San Antonio/Austin NWS...

DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODEL TRENDS POINT TOWARD A COLDER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH A POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIP EVENT TO GREET SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL FOR TWO REASONS: ONE, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND TWO, THE AIR TEMP WILL NOT LIKELY FREEZE UNTIL AFTER BUSINESS AND SHOPPING HOURS ARE OVER. HOWEVER...THE CHANGING MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM DESERVES TO BE MONITORED.

AN UPPER LOW PRESENTING THIS SCENARIO IS FORECAST BY MOST MODEL DATA TO DIG VIGOROUSLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH COLD AIR RACING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS PATTERN CAN BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH THE UPSTREAM DYNAMICS FIGHTING AGAINST THE FRONTAL PUSH. WITH COLD CANADIAN AIR ALREADY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOMING MORE DENSE WITH TIME, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD WIN THE BATTLE AND SURGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE THE TRENDS OF KEEPING UPPER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA AND LEAVING US WITH ONLY SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, A SUBSIDENT PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN SHIFTS EAST AS WELL.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks Jeff. Looks like a very challenging forecast time for the next few weeks.

As has been noted before these arctic air masses and their behavior in the deep south and sometimes it seems especially Texas are hard to get handle on.

I will be watching the models and the trends to our NW and W with interest to see if there are any other hints of the "weather" to come. All in all it appears we may be in for a "cool", except for a few days, December here in TX.

[Kelarie]

Austin/San Antonio NWS....

INITIAL EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS NO CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN BEFORE AND AFTER FRONT...BUT NONE DURING PASSAGE AND COVERAGE WILL BE BEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE NAM...ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH EACH RUN WHICH HAS RESULTED IN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTIONS. WILL WAIT UNTIL COMPLETE PACKAGES OF ALL 12Z RUNS ARRIVE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS.

FOR TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS. BUT CLOUDS ARE THIN AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A PARTLY SUNNY CONDITION. WILL BE UPDATING THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Austin/San Antonio NWS....

INITIAL EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS NO CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEDNESDAY. .

This is exactly the kind of statement that makes the NWS eat crow latter on. Whatever the models say at that momment is what they declare is going to happen later on without waiting for susquent readings, especailly when history shows with Arctic outbreaks in Texas that model output is suspect.

[CajunMama]

Austin/San Antonio NWS....

INITIAL EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS NO CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEDNESDAY. .

This is exactly the kind of statement that makes the NWS eat crow latter on. Whatever the models say at that momment is what they declare is going to happen later on without waiting for susquent readings, especailly when history shows with Arctic outbreaks in Texas that model output is suspect.

We all eat crow a few times in our lives!

[stormspotter]

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KMOB 051226 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CST MON DEC 5 2005

.UPDATE...DID SOME TWEAKING TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN THE FIRST 12-18
HOURS OF THE FORECAST USING LATEST ANALYSIS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT CROSSING THE FA AT THIS
TIME.

16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SUPPORTING HIGH POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION STRENGTHENS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
ADVANCES EASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS AND GEM DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES
ALONG THE OLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE
SMALL POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIVES DOWN THE WESTERN
STATES ON FRIDAY AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS
AND GEM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LAST SYSTEM IS INTERESTING AS 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 546 DM WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1315 M AS THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END. THIS WILL FALL AS A COLD RAIN BASED ON THESE
VALUES...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL HAVE LOW END
POPS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

[Portastorm]

Austin/San Antonio NWS....

INITIAL EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS NO CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEDNESDAY. .

This is exactly the kind of statement that makes the NWS eat crow latter on. Whatever the models say at that momment is what they declare is going to happen later on without waiting for susquent readings, especailly when history shows with Arctic outbreaks in Texas that model output is suspect.

CC, I have to agree with this. Here is the irony: While Austin/San Antonio NWS is hinting that frozen precip may be less likely, the Fort Worth NWS office in their mid morning update talked about guidance looking COLDER and WETTER for North Texas. It can't be both ways!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Austin/San Antonio NWS....

INITIAL EARLY MORNING GUIDANCE SHOWS NO CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA WITH THE UPCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE THIS WEDNESDAY. .

This is exactly the kind of statement that makes the NWS eat crow latter on. Whatever the models say at that momment is what they declare is going to happen later on without waiting for susquent readings, especailly when history shows with Arctic outbreaks in Texas that model output is suspect.

CC, I have to agree with this. Here is the irony: While Austin/San Antonio NWS is hinting that frozen precip may be less likely, the Fort Worth NWS office in their mid morning update talked about guidance looking COLDER and WETTER for North Texas. It can't be both ways!!

And take a look at NWS Corpus guidence.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE
GFS/NAM THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WL OCCUR TUESDAY NGT/WED OVR THE REGION
OWING TO MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE GFS/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ACRS THE PLAINS/ERN CONUS WED-FRI. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENT THAT A COLD FRONT WL ENTER THE REGION LATE
WED/THU. BASED ON GFS/NAM RH VALUES ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES...AND
ECMWF MIXING RATIOS...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WL OCCUR THU SUCH THAT
BY THE TIME 1000-850 AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE CONSISTENT
WITH FREEZING PCPN...MSTR WL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. THE FCST
BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AFTER THU. THE GFS PROGS YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TO ENTER THE REGION BY SAT...HWR THE
NOGAPS/CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLNS KEEP THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SW. IF THE GFS
VERIFIES...A SNOW EVENT WOULD SEEM LIKELY FOR SAT. HWR...THE GFS
SOLN IS UNSTABLE/INCONSISTENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND DO NOT TRUST
IT. CONCUR WITH THE NOGAPS/CANADIAN/ECMWF WHICH PROGS A PATTERN
CONSISTENT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. BASED IN PART
ON MIXING RATIO VALUES FROM THE ECMWF...EXPECT STRATIFORM RAINS TO
BEGIN BY EARLY SAT. BY THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WL
MODIFY RESULTING IN ONLY LIQUID PCPN. THUS...EXPECT STRATIFORM RAIN
TUESDAY NGT/WED. DRY AND COLDER THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. STRATIFORM
RAIN SAT-SUN. BASED ON EXPECTED SST VALUES...EXPECT AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS FOR THU IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT.

[ETXHAMXYL]

NWS has my county (Henderson) with a 40% chance of Frozen precipt on Wed. and Temps lower than yesterday. However it also has us with a warming trend up to the 50's on Friday with another chance of prec. on Sat with warmer temps.
It might get colder and a little wetter since they mentioned waiting until the afternoon data came out.

[vbhoutex]

Aamazingly, some of the local OCM's are mentioning the "possibility" of frozen precipitation in SE TX areas later this week. Most, if any occurs would be in the more Northern counties of SE TX about 50-60 miles to our North I would guess. Could be a very intereting week!!!