Good News: SST Anomalies continuing to fall

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DoctorHurricane2003

Good News: SST Anomalies continuing to fall

#1 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:22 pm

Code: Select all

12-MONTH SST AND SSTA TRACKING FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC
YEAR  M    NATLC    ANOM
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.75    0.96
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.57    0.72
2005  11   27.99    0.58


The SST Anomalies continue to fall, now down to +0.58 C for the average for November. While this is still quite above average, it is just less than half the record breaking anomaly we saw in June of this year (+1.19 C). This is great news, and we can just hope that the SST Anomalies continue to fall. While average to below average SST anomalies won't necessarily prevent an active season (14-17 Named Storms), it can help to suppress hyperactive seasons (18+ named storms) and also prevent the development of excessive major hurricanes...however, it still has a bit further to go before we are in this region.

From

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices
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#2 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:26 pm

Hopefully it will continue to fall. I hope we never
have 2004-2005 type seasons again after the
horrific tragedies that have taken place with this
and last year's hurricanes... :cry:
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DoctorHurricane2003

#3 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:28 pm

I know...I jumped out of my chair when I saw these anomalies dropping like a rock I was so excited. Of course, just remember...it only takes one.

But I guess one is better than four *sigh
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:30 pm

Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2006, due to the fact that we are in a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (i.e., a strong phase of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation).

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

The above Doc is from the Dr Grays 2006 outlook.What do you think about what he says about the sst's?
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#5 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:37 pm

I agree with him on the theory that we should see warmer than normal SSTs next year due to being in the active ATHC phase. However, remember the term 'warm' is slightly subjective. It does not have to be +1.19 C to be warm, it can be +0.22 C and still be considered warm. With that said I believe with this trend, we should land and a peak (or a valley, if you want to call it that, lol) at between +0.08 C and +0.30 C....and it should stay in this range until at least May, if not June. I do not think the Atlantic is in a position, being in the active phase and coming off a record breaking season, to go to negative anomalies so fast, although there is a very outside chance. With that said, it is still possible for the anomalies to rise again during hurricane season...we will just have to see.

I do have a feeling, though, that the number of named storms, at least, will be lowered in their forecast just a slight tad....although 17 NS is not out of the range of possibilities.
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Scorpion

#6 Postby Scorpion » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:41 pm

Since when is it great news, we come here to track hurricanes if there are no hurricanes or few then it gets boring, right?
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DoctorHurricane2003

#7 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:43 pm

Did you completely miss this entire season?
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Scorpion

#8 Postby Scorpion » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:44 pm

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:Did you completely miss this entire season?


Well if anomolies are normal or slightly above average then the season is normal, which is quite boring. Above normal seasons are exciting.
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#9 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:47 pm

Yes but Hurricane Charleys, Franceses (? on the pluralization), Ivans, Jeannes, Dennises, Emilys, Katrinas especially, Ritas, Stans, Wilmas, and Betas I can do without. I'd much have one or two over 2 years that hit than...how many is that...11?
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#10 Postby Jim Hughes » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2006, due to the fact that we are in a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (i.e., a strong phase of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation).

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

The above Doc is from the Dr Grays 2006 outlook.What do you think about what he says about the sst's?


Hmm.....Doc knows best right?

This is why it is called an oscillation. It's nice to see that they are droppng like DoctorHurricane2003 points out but they are very close to what we were seeing in November 2003.

We all know that 2004 was not exactly a quiet season even though it paled in comparison to 2005. (THC wise)

So this may or may not be relative to next summer. But I would still rather hear about them dropping instead of rising. So let's hope it continues.


Jim
Last edited by Jim Hughes on Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby sponger » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:48 pm

And destructive!
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#12 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 3:51 pm

Yes Jim, that was what I was pointing out. In terms of November 2003 though, that was during a...jagged upward trend, while this has been a steady downward trend. I do hope they continue downward, but like I mentioned, eventually it will have to stablize and rise again...but I'm thinking it will do that closer to April/May/June (the stabilization) and probably rise again from there
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MiamiensisWx

#13 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:16 pm

*BUMP*
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wxcrazytwo

#14 Postby wxcrazytwo » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:15 pm

Shouldn't we see a drop in temps this time of the year? I highly doubt that SST'S remain constant throughout the year. What is the big hub bubb about?
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DoctorHurricane2003

#15 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:37 pm

For the 314.159th time, Sea Surface Temperatures are not the same as Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

For example, look at this example of how the anomalies actually increase during winter and decrease during summer:

Code: Select all

YEAR   M   NATLC    ANOM
1995   6   27.05    0.42
1995   7   27.49    0.45
1995   8   28.07    0.54
1995   9   28.36    0.48
1995  10   28.49    0.63
1995  11   28.06    0.65
1995  12   27.33    0.72
1996   1   26.68    0.84
1996   2   26.16    0.70
1996   3   25.95    0.50
1996   4   26.24    0.46
1996   5   26.59    0.38
1996   6   26.82    0.19
1996   7   27.15    0.11


Peak anomaly for that time period was in January at +0.84 C.
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#16 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:24 pm

SSTAs have patterns. They were falling a lot this time last year too. I doubt very much this will continue past February, unfortunately.
JMO.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#17 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:34 pm

Um, they were not falling this time last year. Please look at the very first post in this thread.
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#18 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:12 pm

This is good news, but then again, it is true that they can rebound. Should fewer extratrop cyclones form during winter more heat energy will still be present in the tropics.

Of more important note, of course, is the SSTA's in the central Pacific. Remember that from Dr. Gray's 2005 summary it said how due to the warm anomaly across the CPAC a pretty much stationary ridge parked itself there, which affected weather patterns downstream, and led to a persistant ridge along the east coast that prevented recurvature of storms into the open Atlantic the past two years.
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Re: Good News: SST Anomalies continuing to fall

#19 Postby aerojad » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:49 am

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:

Code: Select all

12-MONTH SST AND SSTA TRACKING FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC
YEAR  M    NATLC    ANOM
2004  11   28.25    0.84
2004  12   27.56    0.95
2005   1   26.84    0.99
2005   2   26.52    1.06
2005   3   26.63    1.18
2005   4   26.75    0.96
2005   5   27.41    1.18
2005   6   27.82    1.19
2005   7   28.06    1.03
2005   8   28.46    0.92
2005   9   28.75    0.86
2005  10   28.57    0.72
2005  11   27.99    0.58


The SST Anomalies continue to fall, now down to +0.58 C for the average for November. While this is still quite above average, it is just less than half the record breaking anomaly we saw in June of this year (+1.19 C). This is great news, and we can just hope that the SST Anomalies continue to fall. While average to below average SST anomalies won't necessarily prevent an active season (14-17 Named Storms), it can help to suppress hyperactive seasons (18+ named storms) and also prevent the development of excessive major hurricanes...however, it still has a bit further to go before we are in this region.

From

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices


If this season has taught anything, I think SSTs don't matter as much as overall heat content of the ocean waters. But... do we have any way to measure that?
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DoctorHurricane2003

#20 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:53 am

SSTAs do have an effect and can show a general trend in numbers. Heat content is mainly an issue with how rapidly storms intensify.
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