Rain? Snow? Sleet? or Rain? for Atlanta Thurs nite?

[JenyEliza]

Well, we sent all our cold, cold rain up north to you peeps on the Eastern seaboard. Hope ya'll enjoy it! Wish it was ours.

We were supposed to have gotten to 52 today...but never broke 40 at my house. It's cold, damp and miserable here.

I sat and watched NWS Peachtree City all day today waiting to see what they'd say about later this week. They posted an AFD very early this morning, and then nothing all day until almost 4pm. Normally when they don't post an updated AFD all day, I know they're holding off on saying they suspect something's up for us.

So....low and behold....they posted this at 3:37 pm EST

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATING GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES POINTING TO COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING RAIN...SNOW MIX OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPOLITAN ATLANTA AREA. EVENT STARTS OFF AS LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MODELS INDICATING COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOW OVER THE ATLANTA AREA...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON BRINGING MENTION OF SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WHEN DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

So...does anyone think this is outside the realm of possibility for us? Or am I just an impatient southern wish-caster?

Oh, and where did everyone go? This board was rocking last winter...and now is really slow.

Hey Brent...cross fingers for SNOW!!

[Brent]

I hate to say it, but the cold air will be shallow, so it looks like an ice event IF it's cold enough. Otherwise a miserable very cold rain.

There is some potential for a little wraparound snow, but I would not expect it in Atlanta, mainly the mountains.

From Birmingham:

DURING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROF IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS TROF APPROACHES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE AND RAIN. AS OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS RAIN WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR LOWEST. LOOKING AT THE GFS 1000-
850 CRITICAL VALUES...THE THICKNESSES ARE THERE TO SUPPORT SNOW
BUT THE 850 ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. IT COULD FLIP FLOP FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN. THEN AS THE
SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST PLENTY OF RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THIS INVERTED TROF
WILL TURN INTO A FULL FLEDGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. AS THE LOW
EXITS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT COULD BRING SOME
SNOW TO OUR EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. AS ALWAYS...BEING THIS FAR
OUT...MY CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW TO ADD IT IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS MODELS BEGIN TO AGREE WITH EACH
OTHER. BUT FOR NOW...JUST RAIN WORDING DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

[JenyEliza]

I want SNOW. NOT ICE, dangit.

I'd rather just have a cold miserable rain like today than an ice storm.

[Brent]

We were supposed to have gotten to 52 today...but never broke 40 at my house. It's cold, damp and miserable here.

Actually... at Midnight, it was 53 at Hartsfield. All along, the forecast was for falling temperatures today, which was right.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html

[Brent]

I want SNOW. NOT ICE, dangit.

I'd rather just have a cold miserable rain like today than an ice storm.

I know... it bears watching, but I just think it's either going to be ice or all rain at this point. Maybe a few snowflakes mixed in, but the cold air aloft just won't support more IMO.

If something changes, I'll be the first to post it.

[JenyEliza]

We were supposed to have gotten to 52 today...but never broke 40 at my house. It's cold, damp and miserable here.

Actually... at Midnight, it was 53 at Hartsfield. All along, the forecast was for falling temperatures today, which was right.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html

LOL. No wonder I didn't see our "high" for today. I was sleeping.

[JenyEliza]

I want SNOW. NOT ICE, dangit.

I'd rather just have a cold miserable rain like today than an ice storm.

I know... it bears watching, but I just think it's either going to be ice or all rain at this point. Maybe a few snowflakes mixed in, but the cold air aloft just won't support more IMO.

If something changes, I'll be the first to post it.

I'm counting on that! I've been watching for posts about our area from you today, but didn't see any.

I somehow managed to lock myself out from S2K earlier, so I finally gave in and re-set my password so I could open this thread up. Someone had to get the AL/GA area on this board for winter wx.

Now, where is everyone?

[Brent]

I'm counting on that! I've been watching for posts about our area from you today, but didn't see any.

Yeah... I've been reluctant to start a thread about this. I'm still not totally convinced there will be anything frozen anywhere close. Looks like a snow event to our northwest though... North Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Tennessee.

[txwatcher91]

I'm counting on that! I've been watching for posts about our area from you today, but didn't see any.

Yeah... I've been reluctant to start a thread about this. I'm still not totally convinced there will be anything frozen anywhere close. Looks like a snow event to our northwest though... North Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Tennessee.

What about eastern North Carolina?

[JenyEliza]

This is the *Accuweather* predicted set up for the next storm.

[Brent]

I'm counting on that! I've been watching for posts about our area from you today, but didn't see any.

Yeah... I've been reluctant to start a thread about this. I'm still not totally convinced there will be anything frozen anywhere close. Looks like a snow event to our northwest though... North Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/Tennessee.

What about eastern North Carolina?

Maybe a rain/snow mix.

[Lowpressure]

Will be watching it here in Charlotte. Local met on 6 thinks maybe WSW by Tuesday eve into Wed a.m. Hard to say as I am new to the area, moved from Fredericksburg- they got theres today. I will be wtaching and posting throughout as usaual. Currently cold rain and 37.0

[therock1811]

This is the *Accuweather* predicted set up for the next storm.

One local met has gone and said maybe 3" plus for Cincinnati. With the track moving north, it's possible.

[Brent]

We were supposed to have gotten to 52 today...but never broke 40 at my house. It's cold, damp and miserable here.

Actually... at Midnight, it was 53 at Hartsfield. All along, the forecast was for falling temperatures today, which was right.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html

LOL. No wonder I didn't see our "high" for today. I was sleeping.

Hmmm... Fox 5 had 60!!! for the high in Atlanta today. WOW.

[JenyEliza]

We were supposed to have gotten to 52 today...but never broke 40 at my house. It's cold, damp and miserable here.

Actually... at Midnight, it was 53 at Hartsfield. All along, the forecast was for falling temperatures today, which was right.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KATL.html

LOL. No wonder I didn't see our "high" for today. I was sleeping.

Hmmm... Fox 5 had 60!!! for the high in Atlanta today. WOW.

T'weren't near my house. I went to bed last night around 11:30 and we were in the 40's. And during the day today, it droppped all day...never broke 40 during the waking hours.

Sitting at 34 right now.

[Brent]

0z NAM... either some ice(though it doesn't look like a major problem) or all rain.

1pm Thursday:



7pm Thursday:



1am Friday:

[JenyEliza]

0z NAM... either some ice(though it doesn't look like a major problem) or all rain.

1pm Thursday:



7pm Thursday:



1am Friday:

I could be wrong...and probably am, but it looks to me like it NAM is saying it won't be cold enough far enough south for snow/ice near us....

I'd rather have a cold rain than ice, truth be told.

Jen

[Brent]

Yes... that's what it shows on face value. HOWEVER, with the cold air shallow, it may not be picking up on that and could bring in freezing rain... but there's no way it'd be snow with that setup, and it's too warm for wraparound flurries.

Overall, it sucks.

So, at this time, I would think if there is any freezing rain in Atlanta, it would be in the morning hours and it would be all rain by mid-morning with only a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Not an ice storm...

[JenyEliza]

Yes... that's what it shows on face value. HOWEVER, with the cold air shallow, it may not be picking up on that and could bring in freezing rain... but there's no way it'd be snow with that setup, and it's too warm for wraparound flurries.

Overall, it sucks.

So, at this time, I would think if there is any freezing rain in Atlanta, it would be in the morning hours and it would be all rain by mid-morning with only a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Not an ice storm...

Hmmm. Right now NWS Peachtree City is calling for a low of 30 and 40% chance of rain Thursday night. That's up from a 20% chance earlier...and the low is slightly warmer than earlier (ie, it was around 28 this afternoon).

Seems to me that would make it a tough call tonight, which explains why they're not ready to commit one way or the other. Lots could change in 24 hours (as we've seen today in the VA/DC/MD/NE).

Guess we'll just have to be patient, sit tight and see how it plays out. Of course, having lived in ATL for 38 years, I would be rather (pleasantly) surprised to see snowy wx here this early in the season (no ice, please).

Jen

[Brent]

I love computer models. NOT.

The 0z GFS has it barely even raining here(very very light amounts).