Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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Coredesat

#441 Postby Coredesat » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:01 pm

I'm agreeing with the Dvorak comment. That's some of the deepest convection Epsilon has had since it became a hurricane, and convection is still wrapped around the eye.

I imagine that the moment there's a gap in the eyewall, they'll downgrade.
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DoctorHurricane2003

#442 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:05 pm

It is out of the question, as there will no doubt be another front by the time it gets over in this direction...if it survives. Remember, even though it is 2005, it is still December :D

And $10 says the convection wraps back around again tonight. :roll:
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#443 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:06 pm

looks like it has now developed 3 very clear bands going into the center.
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MiamiensisWx

#444 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:14 pm

Image
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#445 Postby Cookiely » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

Another humor quote from Avila at discussion of the 4 PM EST advisorie. :)

Do you think he's worried that Epsilon will be around for the Christmas holidays and on into New Year. :lol:
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MiamiensisWx

#446 Postby MiamiensisWx » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:16 pm

It is still pretty good.
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#447 Postby P.K. » Mon Dec 05, 2005 4:20 pm

200hPa temperatures as mentioned again in the latest discussion:

Edit - This is the 9pm GMT forecast from the 12pm GMT GFS run.

Image
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#448 Postby MGC » Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:06 pm

The hurricane that won't die. I would not be surprised if Eplison hangs around another week at this rate. Yea, keep moving south into some warmer waters......MGC
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#449 Postby James » Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:18 pm

Perhaps Epsilon doesn't feel at home in the North Atlantic and wants to move down to the tropics. He arrived a little late. :P
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#450 Postby WindRunner » Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:26 pm

Looks like the SE eyewall is coming back some . . . as if this hasn't happened before during this time of day . . .
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#451 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:35 pm

It has 6 more days at this strength to over take 1950 on the ACE. Come hurricane!!!
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Derek Ortt

#452 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Dec 05, 2005 5:43 pm

earlier this afternoon, it looked like it was a 5.0 or at least a 4.5+ however, now a solid 4.5 should be the estimate without much question
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#453 Postby James » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:36 pm

Convection now looks like a broken ring. Could this be temporary or is this the weakening commencing?
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#454 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 6:48 pm

P.K. wrote:200hPa temperatures as mentioned again in the latest discussion:

Edit - This is the 9pm GMT forecast from the 12pm GMT GFS run.

Image


Thanks for posting that image...it does seem 200hPa temps increase to the south. That could finally kill off Epsilon.
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#455 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:31 pm

TPNT KGWC 060024 COR
A. HURRICANE EPSILON (TWENTY-NINE)
B. 05/2331Z (127)
C. 33.4N/0
D. 34.1W/8
E. FOUR/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24HRS -05/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR

09A/ PBO 48NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A
46NM WIDE OW RING GIVING AN EYE NBR OF 4.0 WITH ZERO EYE ADJ...
FOR A CF/DT OF 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...BOTH MET AND PT
AGREE. COR FOR FIX CODE ON TOP LINE. COR SENT...06/0026Z.

AODT: T3.6 (CRVD BND)

LAURENTI

Air Force evenings T numbers still has it as a hurricane.But look how they describe that eye structure.
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#456 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:36 pm

is that an Eyewall replacement cycle??? or am i just seeing things???
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#457 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:39 pm

brunota2003 wrote:is that an Eyewall replacement cycle??? or am i just seeing things???


Well it does look like its reforming the eye but it looks like the new eye will be smaller then the first one not larger.
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#458 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:42 pm

however knowing the NHC they will bring the winds down to like 65kts at 10!
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#459 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:46 pm

05/2345 UTC 33.3N 33.7W T3.5/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean

SSD dvorak has it at the borderline TS/cane.
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#460 Postby WindRunner » Mon Dec 05, 2005 7:48 pm

Looking at the new IR . . . yeah, I'm thinking that they will downgrade at 10 unless it reforms that eastern half.
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