Philip Klotzbach/Dr Grays First 2006 Outlook=17/9/5

[mtm4319]

Great minds think alike.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Well I think you shouldn't be downplaying next season just because some anomolies are going down.

Again, watch the trends. It's part of the science of meteorology. I also don't think you should be hyping next season just because this season was super active, which is the major reason behind many people's insanely active predictions for next year.

[Scorpion]

Well I think you shouldn't be downplaying next season just because some anomolies are going down.

Again, watch the trends. It's part of the science of meteorology. I also don't think you should be hyping next season just because this season was super active, which is the major reason behind many people's insanely active predictions for next year.

We are in an active period. People said not to hype 2005 and that it wouldn't be like 2004, but look what happened. Im not saying next year will be as crazy, but it will stay be way above normal, probably 2004 levels or above.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

1995 - T
1996 - M
1997 - G
1998 - N
1999 - L
2000 - N
2001 - O
2002 - L
2003 - P
2004 - O
2005 - Epsilon

We're in an active cycle, yes. Does that automatically mean we're going to reach the R storm next season? No. I'm not saying we won't or we will, because the real kicker is, we're all arguing over the future! But I would say it's climatologically very unlikely.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

We are in an active period. People said not to hype 2005 and that it wouldn't be like 2004, but look what happened. Im not saying next year will be as crazy, but it will stay be way above normal, probably 2004 levels or above.

And I didn't say that we would only have 2 named storms next year. If you would read my posts, you would see that I still think we will have an active season, 14-16 Named Storms...but we won't get to Omega like some people apparently think we will.

[AussieMark]

u think we will see a high frequency of hurricanes to named storms ratio?

i.e
1998 had 14 storms and 10 hurricanes (or 71.4% of total storms)
1996 had 13 storms and 9 hurricanes (or 69.2% of total storms)
1999 had 12 storms and 8 hurricanes (or 66.7% of total storms)

[aerojad]

1995 - T
1996 - M
1997 - G
1998 - N
1999 - L
2000 - N
2001 - O
2002 - L
2003 - P
2004 - O
2005 - Epsilon

We're in an active cycle, yes. Does that automatically mean we're going to reach the R storm next season? No. I'm not saying we won't or we will, because the real kicker is, we're all arguing over the future! But I would say it's climatologically very unlikely.

"climatologically very unlikely", eh? Hey, let's check with the 2005 season on how that went. Oh wait, the 2005 season can't talk right now -- it's still running around out there.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

He is right that it IS climatologically unlikely that we will see a season with 18+ named storms next year. That is the truth....the average, remember, is 11 named storms....probably 14 or 15 for the past decade.

[southerngale]

All I know is...prepare for the worst, hope for the best and we'll see soon enough. In blue water sailing we say, Plan your work, work your plan. It applies in most situations in life, it works here.
(That is why predictions are called exactly that...sorta like fishing is not called catching, even for the very best of them. Dr. Gray may be high, he may be low, bottom line is "Heads up, children!")

I need to pin that on the Storm2k wall.

[HURAKAN]

I got this e-mail a few hours ago, the website has been changed!


Dear All,

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 05/dec2005

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach
Research Associate
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu
Phone: (970) 491-8605

[cycloneye]

I got this e-mail a few hours ago, the website has been changed!


Dear All,

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 05/dec2005

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach
Research Associate
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu
Phone: (970) 491-8605

If they dont want to get the outlook out before the official date why they post it here hours or 1-2 days before as this site is of public view ?



http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/

[HURAKAN]

Exactly, he says, "in a hidden URL." It may have been hidden, but it still available in the internet.

[weatherwindow]

He is right that it IS climatologically unlikely that we will see a season with 18+ named storms next year. That is the truth....the average, remember, is 11 named storms....probably 14 or 15 for the past decade.

....altho 2005 gave climo a bad name, i believe it is still credible on a decadal or multi-decadal scale. the historical record strongly suggests that seasons such as this are "once in a generation events". further, given the probability of missed "fishes", 1933 was likely on a par with 2005. that said, i wholeheartedly agree with DH2003. while we will likely see a very active season, we will not see a repeat of the insanity of 2005. dr gray's numbers, altho less conservative than previous dec forecasts, are hardly a leap of faith. excluding the el nino years of 97 and 02, the average season over the last decade(95 thru 05) is ~16/9/4+. even after dropping this season as an anomoly, the average yeilds a hefty 15/9/4. thus, bill gray's early numbers are very reasonable, particularly in the face of the strong probability of neutral/cool ENSO conditions and continuing positive, altho lower, ssta's. an interesting sidebar....if a significant la nina develops perhaps the record for majors(8-1950) could be in jeopardy. on average la nina years yeild higher number of majors..................rich

[flhurricaneguy]

i dont really understand how they can predict if there are going to be less land falling hurricanes

[Jim Hughes]

i dont really understand how they can predict if there are going to be less land falling hurricanes

There are things in the Pacific that can load the dice in favor of landfalls. Those variables were favorable the past couple of years.




Jim

[AussieMark]

if a significant la nina develops perhaps the record for majors(8-1950) could be in jeopardy. on average la nina years yeild higher number of majors..................rich

1950 - 8 majors
1954 - 2 majors
1955 - 6 majors
1956 - 2 majors
1961 - 7 majors
1964 - 6 majors

1970 - 2 majors
1971 - 1 major
1973 - 1 major
1974 - 2 majors
1975 - 3 majors
1984 - 1 major
1985 - 3 majors
1988 - 3 majors
1989 - 2 majors


1998 - 3 majors
1999 - 5 majors
2000 - 3 majors

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[cajungal]

I had a bad feeling when the 2005 season started that it would be a horrible one for the Gulf Coast. I have a very bad feeling for 2006 as well. I am just hoping that they steer away from the gulf coast. It would just be horrible that we are trying to rebuild here on the Gulf coast only to have it destroyed once again. Where did the time go? It is like it just flew by and can't believe it is already Christmas time. And 6 months it will be back and people will start getting nervous once again.

[vacanechaser]

I got this e-mail a few hours ago, the website has been changed!


Dear All,

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 05/dec2005

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach
Research Associate
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu
Phone: (970) 491-8605

If they dont want to get the outlook out before the official date why they post it here hours or 1-2 days before as this site is of public view ?



http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/

Way to go people... I seem to remember Mark saying here just earlier in the season about posting it here like that the day before... Now no more early forecasts.. popsting the links like that may not have been the best thing....

[Jim Cantore]

OMG! that was my exact prediction for next year

[HURAKAN]

I got this e-mail a few hours ago, the website has been changed!


Dear All,

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... 05/dec2005

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach
Research Associate
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu
Phone: (970) 491-8605

If they dont want to get the outlook out before the official date why they post it here hours or 1-2 days before as this site is of public view ?



http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/

Way to go people... I seem to remember Mark saying here just earlier in the season about posting it here like that the day before... Now no more early forecasts.. popsting the links like that may not have been the best thing....

The website wasn't hidden as they asure, it was available to the public if you knew how to find it. There were no hackers or anything like it. If they didn't want us to see it before release day, just don't make it avaible until release day. As clear as water!