Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

fasterdisaster · #461 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:17 pm

If the NHC issued an intermediate advisory right now, it would be a ts. However that eye is reforming, and there was no eastern half at all a couple hours ago, but now it does. I think it will reorganize by 10 and still be a hurricane, albeit barely.

#462 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:19 pm

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051206 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051206 0000 051206 1200 051207 0000 051207 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.4N 33.8W 32.9N 33.1W 31.9N 34.1W 30.9N 36.3W
BAMM 33.4N 33.8W 32.4N 33.7W 31.2N 35.2W 30.3N 37.6W
A98E 33.4N 33.8W 32.9N 32.4W 32.4N 32.3W 32.0N 33.4W
LBAR 33.4N 33.8W 32.9N 32.0W 32.2N 31.1W 31.0N 30.9W
SHIP 65KTS 57KTS 49KTS 41KTS
DSHP 65KTS 57KTS 49KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051208 0000 051209 0000 051210 0000 051211 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 38.3W 23.6N 41.1W 18.6N 43.2W 15.9N 46.3W
BAMM 29.1N 39.5W 24.8N 41.9W 20.6N 45.1W 18.5N 50.2W
A98E 30.6N 34.8W 27.2N 32.1W 24.3N 28.2W 19.7N 22.6W
LBAR 30.2N 31.0W 26.3N 31.6W 24.4N 27.7W 24.8N 21.8W
SHIP 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.4N LONCUR = 33.8W DIRCUR = 105DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 33.8N LONM12 = 35.5W DIRM12 = 96DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 986MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

Still a hurricane at 10 PM EST.65kts

WindRunner · #463 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:21 pm

Probably because it's showing some very strong convection right now and signs of reforming. Good call on their part.

#464 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:39 pm

NOT BAD!!!!

#465 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 8:42 pm

KOOL PIXS!

#466 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:55 pm

Slight drop in position number:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/2345 UTC 33.3N 33.7W T3.5/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean

#467 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:57 pm

10 PM EST track.

#468 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 9:59 pm

GFDL now aligned with other models:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

#469 Postby **JtSmarts** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 10:52 pm

Epsilon looking better.

Coredesat · #470 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 11:53 pm

That convection's getting deeper and it's starting to wrap around the eye AGAIN.

#471 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:02 am

WILL THERE BE AN END! THE NHC VS. EPSILON!

Coredesat · #472 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:29 am

Sorry, that cried out for a graphic:

aerojad · #473 Postby **aerojad** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:44 am

Infra-red satellite + track history & forecast: linky.

Hopefully the upcoming shear puts an end to this storm and this season... because if it doesn't... hey look, the Lesser Antillies would be the logical target! :eek:

#474 Postby **coriolis** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:49 am

The guy in the blue shirt that's standing: Looks at watch and says "OK Epsilon, we want to go home now"

aerojad · #475 Postby **aerojad** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:49 am

imagine the overtime

Website · #476 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:51 am

coriolis wrote:The guy in the blue shirt that's standing: Looks at watch and says "OK Epsilon, we want to go home now"

Poor Max Mayfield.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #477 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:58 am

They are likely making great over time. Maybe 2x normal time so they might not be that mad.

aerojad · #478 Postby **aerojad** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:25 am

For the job they do, it's worth every penny.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #479 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:35 am

Convection wraping around the eye. It looks very good right now its strengthing again!!!

wxmann_91 · #480 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:45 am

740
WHXX01 KWBC 060626
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051206 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051206 0600 051206 1800 051207 0600 051207 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.1N 33.7W 32.2N 33.8W 31.1N 35.3W 29.6N 37.4W
BAMM 33.1N 33.7W 31.7N 34.0W 30.4N 35.6W 29.3N 37.7W
A98E 33.1N 33.7W 32.2N 33.9W 31.5N 34.2W 29.5N 35.7W
LBAR 33.1N 33.7W 32.2N 32.9W 31.2N 32.9W 29.8N 33.8W
SHIP 65KTS 57KTS 48KTS 38KTS
DSHP 65KTS 57KTS 48KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051208 0600 051209 0600 051210 0600 051211 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 38.9W 20.6N 40.7W 15.5N 41.4W 12.5N 43.5W
BAMM 27.3N 39.0W 21.2N 41.2W 16.2N 45.0W 13.4N 52.0W
A98E 28.0N 35.5W 25.0N 31.6W 23.2N 26.8W 21.6N 20.6W
LBAR 27.4N 34.6W 23.6N 32.7W 23.6N 26.5W 25.5N 22.7W
SHIP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.1N LONCUR = 33.7W DIRCUR = 160DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 33.7N LONM12 = 34.7W DIRM12 = 105DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 33.9N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 986MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 75NM

Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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