Snow for Texas

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The Austin/San Antonio NWS office just issued its afternoon discussion and has ruled out frozen precip chances for our area.

Given this news and their track record in previous events, I am now officially worried that we're going to get smacked by an ice storm!

As you rightfully should.........

Well, well, well ... lo and behold. I wake up Tuesday morning and we now have mixed precipitation in our forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday morning here in Austin. Following this trend ... watch ... a winter storm watch will get posted this afternoon!

And our on air mets down here fliped their forecasts this AM from the 50's on Thursday to maybe not even reaching 40 . Yahoo! We may have a real winter this year if the it's getting that cold in the state this early.

Bring it!

[Portastorm]

Have you all seen the surface air temps in the Texas Panhandle this morning? 7 degrees in Dalhart, 10 degrees in Amarillo ... keep in mind that these temps are PRE ARCTIC FRONT!

Perhaps JB is right about a major temp bust tomorrow in Texas. I've been around enough to know that below zero temps in the Panhandle easily means 20s in south central Texas with an Arctic airmass pressing south.

Yeah, bring it baby .. bring it!

[Kelarie]

Have you all seen the surface air temps in the Texas Panhandle this morning? 7 degrees in Dalhart, 10 degrees in Amarillo ... keep in mind that these temps are PRE ARCTIC FRONT!

Perhaps JB is right about a major temp bust tomorrow in Texas. I've been around enough to know that below zero temps in the Panhandle easily means 20s in south central Texas with an Arctic airmass pressing south.

Yeah, bring it baby .. bring it!

So does this mean I can get the snow blower out?? The sled?? Can I bring out all of my snow survival gear that I have been hoarding??

[Portastorm]

Have you all seen the surface air temps in the Texas Panhandle this morning? 7 degrees in Dalhart, 10 degrees in Amarillo ... keep in mind that these temps are PRE ARCTIC FRONT!

Perhaps JB is right about a major temp bust tomorrow in Texas. I've been around enough to know that below zero temps in the Panhandle easily means 20s in south central Texas with an Arctic airmass pressing south.

Yeah, bring it baby .. bring it!

So does this mean I can get the snow blower out?? The sled?? Can I bring out all of my snow survival gear that I have been hoarding??

LOL!

I bet there wouldn't be a happier person in this town than you Kel, if it snows!

[Extremeweatherguy]

considering it was 27 at my house this morning...pre arctic front...I would bet ice and sleet reaches northern harris county on Thursday morning and highs Thursday will probably not reach 40. Brrr.... It would be nice if the precip. stuck around longer, because then it would probably turn to all sleet or snow. We'll have to see...

[Portastorm]

The new 12z GFS run looks a bit colder for those of us in central, south central Texas for Thursday-Friday. Hmmm .... so is following every model run for a potential winter storm the same as our famed Wobble Wars during tropical weather season?! HA!

Link to 12z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Have you all seen the surface air temps in the Texas Panhandle this morning? 7 degrees in Dalhart, 10 degrees in Amarillo ... keep in mind that these temps are PRE ARCTIC FRONT!

Perhaps JB is right about a major temp bust tomorrow in Texas. I've been around enough to know that below zero temps in the Panhandle easily means 20s in south central Texas with an Arctic airmass pressing south.

Yeah, bring it baby .. bring it!

Yep, that's why you see the local mets bring down their temps. They'll go down further by the 6 PM news. IF is singe digits in the Panhandle, you can almost be certain that teens and low 20's are possible in south central Texas and 20's to freezing to Brownsville. And that is with cloud cover too.

[CaptinCrunch]

temps are running about 10 to 15 degrees colder than what the models were forecasting lastnight, The forecasted high today in D/FW is 58 with a south wind, we have the south wind right now but I don't think we will make the 58, looks more like the lower 50's, 51-52. It's still 45 right now and has been for the past hour, so things do look to be a little colder than forcasted.

As for the precip chances and forecast for Wednesday, most local Mets are calling for freezing rain changing to sleet then snow as the day progresses with a high of 32 at midnight then falling into the mid 20's by afternoon. Regional radar is not picking up any precip at this time from OK to the to the GOM. I'm sure moisture is streaming northward, but it wont be until late this evening untill we really know just how much precip any of us will recieve overnight and Wednesday.

My best guess will be for a light dusting of snow and sleet across most of NTX with the better chance of any real accumulation along the Redriver. Freezing rain and sleet from Waco to Temple and maybe as far South as Austin. I think most precip will move out of the Houston area by the time the real cold temps arrive there with only slight chances of frozen precip.

[Portastorm]

Here is the latest from the Austin/San Antonio NWS office:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1043 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z MODEL DATA.
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LAGRANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED
ROADS NORTH OF THAT LINE COULD ICE-OVER. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE VERY LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

-------------------------------------------
I'm not a professional meteorologist (obviously) but it sure looked to me like the 12z model run data showed the 540m thickness line a little further south near Austin. These NWS guys are paid to know this stuff so I guess I'm wrong.

I still think the depth of cold air will be greater than what they are anticipating and that the forecast may change again for us.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1030 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

.UPDATE...
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES BELOW FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. DROPPED ALL AREAS
SEVERAL DEGREES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING...WHAT LITTLE WILL
OCCUR. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And how much do you all want to bet they will have to revise temps downward for Friday and Saturday? Sorry NWS, but true blue Arctic air masses don't warm up that fast in Texas. They have some places in the 60's by Saturday. If the heart of the air is here Thursday, there is just no way it will warm up that fast.

[CaptinCrunch]

And how much do you all want to bet they will have to revise temps downward for Friday and Saturday? Sorry NWS, but true blue Arctic air masses don't warm up that fast in Texas. They have some places in the 60's by Saturday. If the heart of the air is here Thursday, there is just no way it will warm up that fast.

I will expect temps for Fri-Sat to be adjusted some 5 to 8 degrees cooler across most parts of North and Central TX as the Arctic airmass will not push out of TX till late Saturday with a chilly sunday and temps holding in the mid 50's.

[txprog]

And how much do you all want to bet they will have to revise temps downward for Friday and Saturday? Sorry NWS, but true blue Arctic air masses don't warm up that fast in Texas. They have some places in the 60's by Saturday. If the heart of the air is here Thursday, there is just no way it will warm up that fast.

I know we like to think this, but check out these numbers from last December. Didn't take long for things to warm up...

22 45 24 35 -10 30 0 0.25 0.3 0 19.1 32 10 0 0 8 168 38 10
23 32 18 25 -20 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.7 21 10 519 87 4 25 20
24 32 21 27 -18 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 21 10 524 87 4 24 10
25 48 19 34 -11 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 14 190 517 86 1 18160
26 64 27 46 1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 12 160 513 86 1 15 150
27 60 33 47 2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.7 18 180 500 83 5 23 140
28 65 42 54 9 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.7 24 180 131 22 6 18 2190
29 66 53 60 16 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.5 23 190 257 43 9 18 2190
30 75 59 67 23 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 17.3 33 200 210 35 10 1 4200
31 73 57 65 21 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.4 22 200 38 6 8 1 24 210
================================================================================

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And how much do you all want to bet they will have to revise temps downward for Friday and Saturday? Sorry NWS, but true blue Arctic air masses don't warm up that fast in Texas. They have some places in the 60's by Saturday. If the heart of the air is here Thursday, there is just no way it will warm up that fast.

I know we like to think this, but check out these numbers from last December. Didn't take long for things to warm up...

22 45 24 35 -10 30 0 0.25 0.3 0 19.1 32 10 0 0 8 168 38 10
23 32 18 25 -20 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.7 21 10 519 87 4 25 20
24 32 21 27 -18 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 21 10 524 87 4 24 10
25 48 19 34 -11 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 14 190 517 86 1 18160
26 64 27 46 1 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.6 12 160 513 86 1 15 150
27 60 33 47 2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.7 18 180 500 83 5 23 140
28 65 42 54 9 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.7 24 180 131 22 6 18 2190
29 66 53 60 16 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 13.5 23 190 257 43 9 18 2190
30 75 59 67 23 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 17.3 33 200 210 35 10 1 4200
31 73 57 65 21 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 12.4 22 200 38 6 8 1 24 210
================================================================================

Two different air masses. This one coming has Siberian air behind it. Lat December was modified Arctic air.

[vbhoutex]

Just cold and wet in Houston forecast so far. Some local OCM's are still hanging with the frozen variety of precip in out Nothern Metro area.

Expires:200512062200;;889588
FPUS54 KHGX 061542
ZFPHGX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS ZONE FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
940 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005


TXZ200-212-213-227-062200-
FORT BEND-HARRIS-LIBERTY-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEMPSTEAD...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...
PASADENA...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...SUGARLAND...MISSOURI CITY...
RICHMOND...ROSENBURG
940 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
COOLER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20
MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

$$

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS MRF shows another arctic plunge for the middle of the country by Dec 16th, however moisture may be limited for parts of Texas.

[AggieSpirit]

Another Arctic plunge on the 16th or is the air 'Siberian' in origin?

[CaptinCrunch]

Another Arctic plunge on the 16th or is the air 'Siberian' in origin?

It's the GFS so who knows, I would say it may be Siberian, but if it turns out to be Arctic in nature with the amount of extreme cold up north and the large snow pack even a Arctic plunge will have little if any modification to it, so it will be pretty cold as well.

[AggieSpirit]

Capn Crunch -- I live right across 287 from you in the neighborhood right off Kelly Elliot by RL Patterson Elementary (a Kennedale school in Arlington). I grab my Saturday lunches at the Burger Box on Mans.Highway.

So basically, whatever you see as far as weather is what I see.

We were lucky enough to be on the edge that heavier snow band on the Valentines 2004 snowfall. Would love to be that lucky again.

But I always doubt snowfall forecasts in North Texas.

It seems to be difficult to pinpoint. Our atmospheric dynamics, as explained to me by experts, seem to not favor snow over ice.

[PTrackerLA]

The arctic blast of last Christmas was much colder than this one will be. We barely got above freezing for two days and with this one we'll be in the 40's to near 50 for highs with the clouds.