Rain? Snow? Sleet? or Rain? for Atlanta Thurs nite?

JenyEliza · #21 Postby **JenyEliza** » Mon Dec 05, 2005 11:23 pm

And by morning, it could be a completely different story. No use getting worked up about it tonight, I suppose.

JenyEliza · #22 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:32 am

Looks like a "bear watch" here.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC

WILL SEE INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE STATE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL BE THU MORNING THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SEEMS TO BEE WEATHER OR NOT THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THU WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURE DROPS TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THU NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE N GA MAY SEE SOME FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIP THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS COOL AIR MOVES IN DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A MIXED PRECIP ACROSS N GA AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

JenyEliza · #23 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:36 am

From Huntsville AL NWS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/productview ... &version=0

INTERESTING CHANGES ARE IN WORKS AFTER MIDWEEK. THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL IN THE WORKS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING LATER WED. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. THE BIG IF`S NOW IS WHAT PHASE WILL THE PRECIP BE IN? A FEW ITEMS ARGUE FOR THE FROZEN VARIETY...

COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
STRONG UPGLIDE NOTED IN THE 285-290K REGIONS
ADIABATIC COOLING

THEN THERE IS A MODEL BIAS THAT IS NORMALLY TOO COOL THIS FAR OUT. BUT TAKING MODEL GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE...WILL GO FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET TO START THE EVENT...WITH THE PRECIP BECOMING ALL RAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THURSDAY. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...A CHANGE OVER BACK TO WINTRY PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR NW ALABAMA. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM DO SHOW THIS...WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS NOT QUITE AS COOL. THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THUR EVENING. THIS IS TOO FAR OUT AND MOST UNCERTAIN TO PUT OUT WINTER WEATHER WATCHES THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

Website · #24 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:03 pm

I'm just not impressed with this... moisture is not even looking good at this point. I certainly don't forsee an ice storm.

JenyEliza · #25 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:04 pm

Probably not gonna be anything more than another load of cold rain. I know better than to hope for snow before Christmas around here. :cry:

Website · #26 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:05 pm

JenyEliza wrote:Probably not gonna be anything more than another load of cold rain. I know better than to hope for snow before Christmas around here.

Snow before Christmas is VERY rare around here... and let's not even get into the chance of a white Christmas. :roll:

My experience has been when it's really cold, it's dry. When there's actually moisture, it's too warm for snow.

It's been like this every single time...

JenyEliza · #27 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:10 pm

Hmm. Peachtree City is still undecided.... (I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1113 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

.UPDATE...
NICE SUNNY WEATHER ON TAP TODAY AND CLEAR THIS EVENING. MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO REACH MAX TEMPS BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING BUT SHOULD GET THERE OR VERY CLOSE WITH SUNSHINE. REST OF FCST ON TRACK FOR NEAR TERM. RH IS NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NW GA BUT GROUND IS STILL QUITE MOIST ACCORDING TO OBSERVED FUEL MOISTURE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH DRYING FUELS TODAY...WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REACH 10 PCT FUEL MOISTURE THRESHOLD.

ZONAL FLOW TO TRANSITION TO SW FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WEAK S/W IN STRONG SW FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF WEDENSDAY AFT. STRONG S/W IN NRN BRANCH ALSO TO SWING INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD PRECIP EVENT ESP ACROSS SRN 1/2 OF CWA.

PROBLEM ALSO ON WHAT PRECIP TYPE WILL OCCUR IN NRN ZONES. COULD SEE VERY LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP DURING ONSET THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP. NOT SO SURE ABOUT WINTER PRECIP CHCS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SW FLOW 5000FT AND ABOVE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLOWLY RISING. PERHAPS IF STRONG NE FLOW IN WEDGED AREAS OF NE GA PUSHES IN DRIER AIR IN.
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO POPS AND PRECIP FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS.

SNELSON

JenyEliza · #28 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:12 pm

Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:Probably not gonna be anything more than another load of cold rain. I know better than to hope for snow before Christmas around here.

Snow before Christmas is VERY rare around here... and let's not even get into the chance of a white Christmas.

My experience has been when it's really cold, it's dry. When there's actually moisture, it's too warm for snow. It's been like this every single time...

Yep....the moisture shows up the day before, or the day after the cold. And vice versa. :cry:

Website · #29 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:23 pm

JenyEliza wrote:Hmm. Peachtree City is still undecided.... (I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up).

I don't believe they are talking about snow... they are talking about possible ice. The cold air is shallow.

JenyEliza · #30 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:50 pm

Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:Hmm. Peachtree City is still undecided.... (I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up).

I don't believe they are talking about snow... they are talking about possible ice. The cold air is shallow.

Well, ya just never know.

March 10, 1993, it was rather warm and sunny and they weren't really saying anything about wintery precip. And...voila....

(I know...fantasyland today, but I'm enjoying it).

JenyEliza · #31 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:57 pm

This is Accuweather's prediction so far. Looks like we miss out (again).

Website · #32 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:57 pm

JenyEliza wrote:
Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:Hmm. Peachtree City is still undecided.... (I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up, I will not get my hopes up).

I don't believe they are talking about snow... they are talking about possible ice. The cold air is shallow.

Well, ya just never know. March 10, 1993, it was rather warm and sunny and they weren't really saying anything about wintery precip. And...voila....

(I know...fantasyland today, but I'm enjoying it).

This is a different setup though... The Blizzard of 1993 was a once-in-a-lifetime event. I don't know about Atlanta, but NWS Birmingham was mentioning the potential for wintry weather on March 10th.

The models are actually in more agreement now that at worst there will be a brief period of sleet/freezing rain for Atlanta and then all rain.

Website · #33 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:57 pm

JenyEliza wrote:This is Accuweather's prediction so far:

I am going to travel to where the big snow is one day... I'm sick of this.

JenyEliza · #34 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:59 pm

Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:(I know...fantasyland today, but I'm enjoying it).

This is a different setup though... The Blizzard of 1993 was a once-in-a-lifetime event. I don't know about Atlanta, but NWS Birmingham was mentioning the potential for wintry weather on March 10th.

The track of this system just isn't favorable for anything. The models are actually in more agreement now that at worst there will be a brief period of sleet/freezing rain for Atlanta and then all rain.

I know...you missed what I said above. Don't ruin it for me.

Website · #35 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:59 pm

JenyEliza wrote:I know...you missed what I said above. Don't ruin it for me.

Sorry... I am just the ultimate snow pessimist around here. I used to jump all over every event only to be disappointed.

JenyEliza · #36 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:00 pm

Brent wrote:
JenyEliza wrote:This is Accuweather's prediction so far:

I am going to travel to where the big snow is one day... I'm sick of this.

As a kid, I lived right underneath where that big-blue-blob of snow is. My stinkin parents moved us to GA when I was 5.

I still remember the "big snow" in No. VA. :cry:

Jen

Website · #37 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:02 pm

Not that this probably means anything for Thursday's event... but it's 44.4 here. We're not going to make the projected high of 54 unless the temperature gets busy rising.

JenyEliza · #38 Postby **JenyEliza** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:03 pm

Yep...crappy old cold cold rain for us at this point. :cry:

Website · #39 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:05 pm

JenyEliza wrote:As a kid, I lived right underneath where that big-blue-blob of snow is. My stinkin parents moved us to GA when I was 5.

I still remember the "big snow" in No. VA.

Jen

My dad lived in South Dakota and Ohio as a kid... and my uncle lived in Maine for many years while he was in the Navy, but I never lived up north. Always lived within 2 hours of where I'm living now :lol:

I've been up there... only once when I was kid(October 1989). We went all through VA/MD/DC/PA/NY/MA/CT/RI/NH/ME and then up into Canada and then back down through MI/OH and KY.

I have not seen a 2+" snow since February 1998 when a surprise ULL dumped on us.

Website · #40 Postby **Brent** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:05 pm

JenyEliza wrote:Yep...crappy old cold cold rain for us at this point.

I swear there is a fence on the TN/AL/GA border and all the fun stuff stays north of there. :grr:

In February 2004, some of the counties that border AL in TN got a bunch of snow(over 6 inches in spots). NOTHING on the other side of the border.

Rain? Snow? Sleet? or Rain? for Atlanta Thurs nite?

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