Rain? Snow? Sleet? or Rain? for Atlanta Thurs nite?

[JenyEliza]

Not that this probably means anything for Thursday's event... but it's 44.4 here. We're not going to make the projected high of 54 unless the temperature gets busy rising.

42 with a projected high of 50. I don't see us hitting that either--and we're in full on sunshine, no clouds in the sky. No matter, it's not going to help us get snow, Brent.

The winter weather will be so close--yet so far away for me. Just a short drive north, and there I'd be in the snow.

Jen

[JenyEliza]

Yep...crappy old cold cold rain for us at this point.

I swear there is a fence on the TN/AL/GA border and all the fun stuff stays north of there.

I'm just south of that 'fence'. It's invisible, but it's THERE.

In February 2004, some of the counties that border AL in TN got a bunch of snow(over 6 inches in spots). NOTHING on the other side of the border.

I remember. I even recall spotting/tracking a LES event in N. AL last year. Do you remember that?

And nuttin fer us.

[JenyEliza]

As a kid, I lived right underneath where that big-blue-blob of snow is. My stinkin parents moved us to GA when I was 5.

I still remember the "big snow" in No. VA.

Jen

My dad lived in South Dakota and Ohio as a kid... and my uncle lived in Maine for many years while he was in the Navy, but I never lived up north. Always lived within 2 hours of where I'm living now I've been up there... only once when I was kid(October 1989). We went all through VA/MD/DC/PA/NY/MA/CT/RI/NH/ME and then up into Canada and then back down through MI/OH and KY.

I have not seen a 2+" snow since February 1998 when a surprise ULL dumped on us.

Brent....I cannot even name when the last time we had a 2-3" snow event. It's been years.

We're just a couple of pathetic snow-starved whiners today, ya know?

[Brent]

I remember. I even recall spotting/tracking a LES event in N. AL last year. Do you remember that?

And nuttin fer us.

Yeah... that was when I was in Gatlinburg in January(had a VERY VERY quick inch in about 30 minutes the night before around 7pm). Then it got BITTERLY cold...

[Brent]

We're just a couple of pathetic snow-starved whiners today, ya know?

I couldn't stand it when South Texas and Houston got snow Christmas Eve last year and we didn't. I'm all for them getting snow but only if we get it to. It sucked because that isn't the way it works. People to your south aren't supposed to get snow and you don't.

[JenyEliza]

We're just a couple of pathetic snow-starved whiners today, ya know?

I couldn't stand it when South Texas and Houston got snow Christmas Eve last year and we didn't. I'm all for them getting snow but only if we get it to. It sucked because that isn't the way it works. People to your south aren't supposed to get snow and you don't.

There's a name for our malady, you know.

Snow deprivation syndrome, or SDS for short.

[JenyEliza]

Updated AFD from Peachtree City NWS

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY AND SUB TROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. BIAS-ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD FOR TEMPS. BY WED NIGHT...GOOD WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN ZONES AND PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH WITH PRETTY LIGHT AMOUNTS. AS WITH LAST SYSTEM...ONSET OF PRECIPITATION COULD HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH LIGHT SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW. HAVE CONFINED THIS MIXED PRECIP TO NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT WHERE POPS ARE GREATER THAN 20. FAR NORTH WILL HAVE POPS OF 10-15 WED NIGHT. MAV POPS GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SOME HIGHER POPS SHAVED DOWN ON WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...WAA PATTERN CONTINUES AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. WET BULB TEMPS MAY AGAIN BE LOW ENOUGH THURS MORNING FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE NORTH. MAV/MET/FWC ALL INDICATING SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. IF WEDGE BECOMES STRONGER AND DRIER/COLDER COULD SEE A BIG CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE. BY THURS NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME SWITCH TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ACCORDING TO P-TYPE NOMAGRAMS FROM GFS AND ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS IN NRN ZONES. AGAIN DEPENDS ON HOW WEDGE EVOLVES.

[JenyEliza]

Ok. Now the media is jumping on this here in ATL.

From Atlanta Journal Constitution:

Icy spots make driving hazardous
Frozen precipitation may arrive later in week

By MIKE MORRIS
Published on: 12/06/05

Puddles left over from Monday's rain combined with sub-freezing temperatures to make driving treacherous on some metro Atlanta roads during the early stages of Tuesday's morning rush hour.

Several icy patches were reported to the state Department of Transportation along I-20 between Douglasville and the West End area of Atlanta, resulting in at least one wreck near Fulton Industrial Boulevard.

Ice was also causing problems on the ramp from I-75 northbound to Hudson Bridge Road in Henry County, on I-20 near Almon Road in Newton County and on Ga. 316 near I-85 and Ga. 20 near Suwanee Dam Road in Gwinnett County.

Elsewhere across North Georgia, the DOT warned of icing before daybreak along Ga. 53 in Floyd County, Ga. 52 in Gilmer County and U.S. 27 in Polk County.

Predawn temperatures were in the mid- to upper 20s across metro Atlanta, the National Weather Service said.

Later this week, snow is possible across parts of North Georgia, as far south as the Cartersville and Gainesville areas, the Weather Service said.

A chance of rain is forecast for Thursday into Thursday night, the Weather Service said. Lows Thursday night should be in the low 30s across metro Atlanta and in the upper 20s in the mountains, forecasters said.

"The only fly in the ointment seems to be whether or not the moisture over the area Thursday will move out before temperatures drop to near or below freezing Thursday night," the Weather Service said. "It looks like North Georgia may see some frozen precipitation Thursday night or Friday morning."

[Brent]

Good thing I just got back from the store...

I still don't think this will be a big deal. Mix in the mountains... yawn. Next.

[JenyEliza]

We're at 44F at my house at 3:15 pm. Sun is starting to get lower on the horizon, and I don't think we're going to hit the forecast high for today.

This is what is forecast for the next 7 days by our local OC mets (Channel 11). We'll have to see if this is really how it pans out. Hmmm.

[JenyEliza]

Good thing I just got back from the store...

I still don't think this will be a big deal. Mix in the mountains... yawn. Next.

Pessimist!

[Brent]

We're at 44F at my house at 3:15 pm. Sun is starting to get lower on the horizon, and I don't think we're going to hit the forecast high for today.

This is what is forecast for the next 7 days by our local OC mets (Channel 11). We'll have to see if this is really how it pans out. Hmmm.

Yeah... that's what the mets down here are predicting, only the lows and highs are about 3-4 degrees warmer.

[Brent]

The dreadful 33 and rain...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... &map.y=109

[JenyEliza]

[Brent]

Thursday looks really pleasant...

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[Brent]

Birmingham AFD:

WELL...THINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY KIND OF WINTER PRECIP FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
1000-850 MB CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE NOW NOWHERE NEAR OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT
THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO SHOWS THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE RAIN. AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST...MODELS SHOW THAT RAIN WILL NOW
BE MOVING LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY INSTEAD OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS EVENT BEARS WATCHING THOUGH AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP FROM RUN TO RUN. I AM STILL CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR AND IT WILL JUST BE SOME VERY COLD
RAIN. NOW...ON TO THE FORECAST.

[JenyEliza]

Birmingham AFD:

WELL...THINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY KIND OF WINTER PRECIP FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE
1000-850 MB CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE NOW NOWHERE NEAR OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE ALSO ABOVE FREEZING. LOOKING AT
THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IT ALSO SHOWS THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE RAIN. AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST...MODELS SHOW THAT RAIN WILL NOW
BE MOVING LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY INSTEAD OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS EVENT BEARS WATCHING THOUGH AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP FROM RUN TO RUN. I AM STILL CONFIDENT
THAT WE WILL BE IN THE CLEAR AND IT WILL JUST BE SOME VERY COLD
RAIN. NOW...ON TO THE FORECAST.

[Brent]

Just saw the weather on Fox 5... mix in the mountains possible(not a major event), cold cold cold rain for everyone else.

[JenyEliza]

Just saw the weather on Fox 5... mix in the mountains possible(not a major event), cold cold cold rain for everyone else.

Oh goody. (not).

[JenyEliza]

Don't know if this is encouraging, or not. Probably not. Still, thought I'd toss it out for comment.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
959 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EVENING DROPPING A LITTLE FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT MINS WERE LOWERED A TAD IN MANY AREAS.

CIRRUS ALREADY MAKING INROADS...BUT MUCH OF IT IS THIN. WILL
RAISE CLOUDS AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BOTH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE FLOW OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME A LITTLE THICKER WITH TIME.