Snow for Texas

[gboudx]

AggieSpirit, I know what you mean about doubting snow forecasts for NTX. Any forecast beyond 1 day I take with a very small grain of salt. I've seen the forecast bust both ways, where wintry precip was forecasted but either rained only or never materialized; and where wintry precip occurred when not forecasted. On tomorrow's event, I'm not expecting much. But I gassed up my car in the event I have a 2+ hour commute home tomorrow evening. Wait and see I guess.

[CaptinCrunch]

Capn Crunch -- I live right across 287 from you in the neighborhood right off Kelly Elliot by RL Patterson Elementary (a Kennedale school in Arlington). I grab my Saturday lunches at the Burger Box on Mans.Highway.

So basically, whatever you see as far as weather is what I see.

We were lucky enough to be on the edge that heavier snow band on the Valentines 2004 snowfall. Would love to be that lucky again.

But I always doubt snowfall forecasts in North Texas.

It seems to be difficult to pinpoint. Our atmospheric dynamics, as explained to me by experts, seem to not favor snow over ice.

Most of the time when snow or ice is forecasted for our area, we usally get ice, the over riding warm moist air doesn't have enough deep cold air in place for precip to change all the way over to snow so we get sleet or freezing rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

temps are running about 10 to 15 degrees colder than what the models were forecasting lastnight, The forecasted high today in D/FW is 58 with a south wind, we have the south wind right now but I don't think we will make the 58, looks more like the lower 50's, 51-52. It's still 45 right now and has been for the past hour, so things do look to be a little colder than forcasted.

As for the precip chances and forecast for Wednesday, most local Mets are calling for freezing rain changing to sleet then snow as the day progresses with a high of 32 at midnight then falling into the mid 20's by afternoon. Regional radar is not picking up any precip at this time from OK to the to the GOM. I'm sure moisture is streaming northward, but it wont be until late this evening untill we really know just how much precip any of us will recieve overnight and Wednesday.

My best guess will be for a light dusting of snow and sleet across most of NTX with the better chance of any real accumulation along the Redriver. Freezing rain and sleet from Waco to Temple and maybe as far South as Austin. I think most precip will move out of the Houston area by the time the real cold temps arrive there with only slight chances of frozen precip.

Local temps now range anywhere from 54 in the NW to 60 in the SE, winds are still from the south at a avg of 15mph. Still no precip showing up on regional radar form the panhandle of OK to the GOM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS in Houston has adjusted thier forecasted highs for Thursday downward. Now Houston is only expecting to reach the upper 30s! They are also forecasting rain for that day...but wouldn't you think that with lower 30s in the morning, only raising to upper 30s with continued cold air spilling in, that some of that rain would mix with sleet or be freezing rain during the morning? I wonder if they will mention winter precip. in thier next forecast update?...they talked about the possibility in their afternoon discussion...but still they have not put the wording "sleet or frz. rain" in the forecast. I still believe we will see winter precip. out of this in Houston, but either way 30s on Thursday with winds over 15mph will lead to a raw day with windchills below 32 the whole time! Temperatures Thursday night are forecast to hit the middle 20s (but if we can go calm and get rid of the clouds, then teens or lower 20s might even be possible).

[Kelarie]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY AND CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH A REINFORCING BARRELING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS/MO. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL FROPA TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TEMPERED AT THE SURFACE TOMORROW WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPING AND PROVIDING EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE IN AUSTIN AROUND 15Z (9AM CST)...THEN IN SAN ANTONIO BY 18Z AND INTO WFO CRP'S AREA BY 18Z. RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...ENHANCED BY LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL SLOPE. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO LA GRANGE LINE. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RELATIVELY WARM...SO NO SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT...BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED ROADS MAY BECOME ICED-OVER AND DANGEROUS. A FREEZING RAIN OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE DUE TO PURE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WILL BE 14 TO 18 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY MORNING MIN TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER...AFTER WINDS DECOUPLE AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT...NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE WITH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A BITTERLY COLD MORNING.

[Johnny]

With the time almost on top of us...what is Joe B. saying right now?

[CaptinCrunch]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

...COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INVADE NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM
CST THURSDAY.

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND POSSIBLY SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING IN THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE
QUARTER INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.

[vbhoutex]

000
FLUS44 KHGX 062155
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-072200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
355 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON THE GROUND FROM RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FREEZE ON ELEVATED
ROADWAYS AND OVERPASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...THIS
APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT THREAT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM
TO HUNTSVILLE TO TRINITY LINE. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN TAKING
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS...PETS AND THE ELDERLY. PIPES MAY ALSO
NEED TO BE PROTECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

[jasons2k]

I just relocated to Houston from Dallas. Looks to me like DFW is going to be a mess - similiar to 2003 when everyone went to work but the commute home was 6 hours.

I think this time we will miss the ice in Houston but risk a hard freeze after it clears out.

This morning I hit 31.

[Extremeweatherguy]

With the time almost on top of us...what is Joe B. saying right now?

Joe Bastardi is still sticking to his forecast. He thinks the ice/rain line will reach a Victoria to Houston to Texarcana line. He says that NWS forecasts are coming into better agreement, but are still not quite cold enough. Highs are forecasted to be 39 in Houston on Thursday, so if he is right...it may actually be more like 34-36. I still believe the ice/rain line WILL make it into northern Houston before we clear out...also even after the heaviest precip. clears out, clouds will stick around for a good portion of the day, and with temps in the 30s, who is to say that a little drizzle, or a few snow flurries/light sleet showers will not occur. I would say that downtown Houston probably does not see ice, but I think a little sleet or frz. rain may mix in north of I-10. Also, any wet roads or puddles look like they would freeze Thursday night, so that is also a concern. Latest NWS hourly forecast trends have NW Houston under a 12-14 hr. freeze from Thursday evening until Friday morning. Winds on Thursday will keep wind chills below freezing all day long as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was in NYC in November 2004. There was a forecast of rain and 35 for the last night of my stay. Even during the morning of that day the forecast remained unchanged and discussions from the NWS in NYC called for "temps. in the atmosphere to be too warm to support snow". HA! That night (6 hrs. before the event) they changed thier forecast to a wintery mix. The next morning when I woke up it was snowing steadily outside my hotel window. Now there was not much accumulation and it only lasted a few hours, but the fact that they had not forecasted it until hours before still gives me hope that the same situation will occur here. I guess we'll just have to wait and see...

[m_ru]

I'm in Huntsville and I really hope Joe Bastardi is correct!

[aubrn34]

I live in Dallas and right now they are saying that it will be a mainly ice event, like always. On the latest Winter Storm Warning update they said that most of it depends on the timing of the storm system. They seem to still be very unsure that their forcast will be accurate. Hopefully we dont recieve another ice storm.

[KatDaddy]

It wont be anything compared to the Great Snowfall of Christmas 2004.
Wow what an event we had last Christmas along the S and SE TX Coast.
Just amazingly wonderful event of a lifetime. It was the snowfall I always looked for all my childhood. All those endless nights of waiting for snow finally paid off after 31 years. Last real snowfall like that was 1973. Just perhaps (being wishful.... our next 1895 20: snowstorm will be this Winter for Houston-Galveston. Why not shoot for the stars or snow after our last white Christmas.

[ETXHAMXYL]

I think the local mets are going to miss this one big time. Just have that feeling that we are going to have icicles hanging down from everything tomorrow and it will be slicker than...well you know what.
What is that Murphy's weather law? If they say its going to be a big one, then Nada...but oh just a little dusting and as Emeril says "BAM"
I think I'd rather them go overboard than just "DUH we don't think it will be much or not a major storm just a dusting or a light coating of ice.
I can just about hear that frozen precipt. hitting my window panes tomorrow and coating and coating and coating everything around.
Who is with me on this one?
Look at the changes in just today...Chances of prec. has gone from 40% to 70% both Wed. and Wed. nite. Even the temps that were suppose to be in the 40's are now back down to 36 and falling...want to be that it goes even colder than 36 tonite? I bet it will be around 30 in the morning before it starts falling and the icing will start and coat us a good one then change over to accum. snow that night. Just my thoughts...not pro but just say a woman's intuition is kicking in on this one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All local mets in Houston are now mentioning the possibility of ice on Wed. night and Thurs. morning, and the NWS is even mentioning it for counties NW of Houston. The met on ABC 13 news just showed a future track model that brings freezing rain and sleet all the way to downtown Houston on Thursday morning! All news stations (except one) are also forecasting highs in the upper 30s for Thursday (considering that 2 days ago it was forecast to be 50...this is a big deal). This continues to get more and more interesting and with temps. already at 11 in Amarillo, and 2 in Denver (behind the front>>>Which means COLD here when it arrives), I would bet that model numbers bust by a few degrees over the area; with clouds we may be hard pressed to get out of the middle 30s (with wind) on Thursday. REAL winter weather temps. are on the way!

[Brent]

This is the latest from NWS Houston:

POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF SE TX
LATE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA
APPEARS TO BE NW OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON LINE. AT
THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THE PRECIP WILL END OR STILL BE
ONGOING AS THE TEMPS FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. HOWEVER...THOUGHT THAT THE
CHANCE IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONE
FORECAST. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS A CHC OF SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS
THE NW 1/3 OF SE TX. IT SHOULD EITHER BE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BASED
ON THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.

[vbhoutex]

It wont be anything compared to the Great Snowfall of Christmas 2004.
Wow what an event we had last Christmas along the S and SE TX Coast.
Just amazingly wonderful event of a lifetime. It was the snowfall I always looked for all my childhood. All those endless nights of waiting for snow finally paid off after 31 years. Last real snowfall like that was 1973. Just perhaps (being wishful.... our next 1895 20: snowstorm will be this Winter for Houston-Galveston. Why not shoot for the stars or snow after our last white Christmas.

You got a lot more snow than I did KD. We just got a dusting here at the house in NW Houston, maybe a 1/2" max.

I would love to see the 1895 repeat here except for the fact it would paralyze Houston for about a year!!!LOLOL!!!!! Heck, Houston drivers can't handle dry pavement!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It wont be anything compared to the Great Snowfall of Christmas 2004.
Wow what an event we had last Christmas along the S and SE TX Coast.
Just amazingly wonderful event of a lifetime. It was the snowfall I always looked for all my childhood. All those endless nights of waiting for snow finally paid off after 31 years. Last real snowfall like that was 1973. Just perhaps (being wishful.... our next 1895 20: snowstorm will be this Winter for Houston-Galveston. Why not shoot for the stars or snow after our last white Christmas.

You got a lot more snow than I did KD. We just got a dusting here at the house in NW Houston, maybe a 1/2" max.

I would love to see the 1895 repeat here except for the fact it would paralyze Houston for about a year!!!LOLOL!!!!! Heck, Houston drivers can't handle dry pavement!!!

What about 1895 in Houston?

Back to last Christmas. That was an unreal momment where everyone that has always lived down here acted like a kid for a day. Snow, even a dusting on Christmas morning , has been every South Texan's dream. But that 6 to 12 inches was unreal. I'll never forget looking out my window at daybreak that morning and seeing all of that snow. And man how quiet it was outside that morning. More than likely will never happen in my lifetime again. But I can hope. Right ?

[m_ru]

Huntsville didn't even get a few flurries from the storm last year. I was so extremely upset. I would love to get an ice storm this year...that last one we had was so long ago I can't remember the year...96 or 97 I think, and the last bad one was in 94*I can still hear the limbs cracking and shearing off *