Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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P.K.
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#521 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:17 pm

I HESITATE TO MENTION
THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER
ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO
THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES
NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL
ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE


Agrees with what I was seeing in the models then. :)
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#522 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:22 pm

I don't care this has a better chance of being a hurricane 5 days from now then extratropcial/remant low.
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#523 Postby quandary » Tue Dec 06, 2005 5:01 pm

Wow, LBAR is as crazy as ever.
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#524 Postby WindRunner » Tue Dec 06, 2005 5:24 pm

quandary wrote:Wow, LBAR is as crazy as ever.


Yeah, at least one model doesn't start going crazy and acting normal once the season ends.
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#525 Postby lester » Tue Dec 06, 2005 6:58 pm

This thing's still a hurricane??? :eek:
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#526 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:09 pm

lester88 wrote:This thing's still a hurricane??? :eek:


Image

BARELY, BUT YES, IT'S STILL A CANE!
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#527 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:10 pm

Initialisation time is 6pm GMT so the name is wrong here.

WHXX04 KWBC 062324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON 29L

INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.6 34.2 210./ 8.0
6 30.6 35.0 220./12.4
12 29.7 35.9 226./11.1
18 29.0 36.7 227./10.0
24 28.1 37.4 220./10.7
30 27.4 37.8 208./ 8.2
36 26.6 38.3 217./ 9.2
42 25.9 39.0 221./ 9.1
48 25.4 39.3 214./ 6.4
54 24.9 39.6 215./ 5.1
60 24.7 39.9 221./ 3.3
66 24.4 39.9 184./ 3.1
72 23.9 39.8 174./ 4.5
78 23.2 39.9 183./ 7.2
84 22.4 40.1 198./ 8.5
90 21.7 40.9 228./ 9.6
96 20.9 41.6 219./10.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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#528 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:17 pm

so its now down to a tropical storm
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#529 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:18 pm

Stil has a clear in closed eye. I say its still a hurricane :)
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#530 Postby WindRunner » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:20 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:so its now down to a tropical storm


No, for now it's a technical error in the way the 18Z GFDL was run, but the 00Z models will be coming out at any time, and those will let us know what is happening. Don't assume anything yet, as it is still looking pretty good.
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#531 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:22 pm

the models say tropical storm

P.K. wrote:Initialisation time is 6pm GMT so the name is wrong here.

WHXX04 KWBC 062324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON 29L

INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 31.6 34.2 210./ 8.0
6 30.6 35.0 220./12.4
12 29.7 35.9 226./11.1
18 29.0 36.7 227./10.0
24 28.1 37.4 220./10.7
30 27.4 37.8 208./ 8.2
36 26.6 38.3 217./ 9.2
42 25.9 39.0 221./ 9.1
48 25.4 39.3 214./ 6.4
54 24.9 39.6 215./ 5.1
60 24.7 39.9 221./ 3.3
66 24.4 39.9 184./ 3.1
72 23.9 39.8 174./ 4.5
78 23.2 39.9 183./ 7.2
84 22.4 40.1 198./ 8.5
90 21.7 40.9 228./ 9.6
96 20.9 41.6 219./10.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 96 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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#532 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:22 pm

oh ok
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#533 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:25 pm

JamesFromMaine2 wrote:the models say tropical storm


The model was run 3 hours before the last NHC advisory though so it looks like a mistake to me.
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#534 Postby P.K. » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:46 pm

65kts still:

WHXX01 KWBC 070043
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051207 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051207 0000 051207 1200 051208 0000 051208 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.7N 34.9W 29.3N 36.3W 26.9N 37.4W 23.4N 37.7W
BAMM 30.7N 34.9W 29.4N 36.8W 27.5N 38.3W 24.3N 39.3W
A98E 30.7N 34.9W 29.2N 36.5W 26.9N 37.6W 24.7N 37.7W
LBAR 30.7N 34.9W 29.7N 35.6W 28.4N 36.4W 26.9N 36.7W
SHIP 65KTS 57KTS 46KTS 33KTS
DSHP 65KTS 57KTS 46KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051209 0000 051210 0000 051211 0000 051212 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.8N 36.7W 15.5N 30.2W 16.2N 18.2W 23.7N 1.1W
BAMM 20.4N 40.5W 15.0N 43.8W 12.1N 50.6W 11.7N 59.7W
A98E 22.7N 36.8W 20.3N 32.4W 18.6N 26.1W 18.1N 20.8W
LBAR 25.0N 36.6W 21.6N 32.4W 23.3N 25.0W 25.8N 18.4W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 34.9W DIRCUR = 215DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 32.3N LONM12 = 33.7W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 33.4N LONM24 = 33.8W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 130NM
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#535 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:53 pm

The BAMM is interesting!!! 8-)
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#536 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 06, 2005 7:55 pm

Image

00:00z BAMM run.Wow look at that track.But it differs from the NHC track which takes it eastward as it weakens.
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#537 Postby Dr. Jonah Rainwater » Tue Dec 06, 2005 8:08 pm

Well, the BAMM also goes out a few days in advance of the other models, so who knows what goes on after the terminus of those forecast paths.

This is gonna be a crazy looking storm track when all is said and done. I think Epsilon has moved in every direction on the compass for at least one advisory.
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#538 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Dec 06, 2005 8:14 pm

Image
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#539 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 06, 2005 8:24 pm

06/2345 UTC 30.5N 34.8W T4.0/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean


NO SURPRISE, IT'S STILL A HURRICANE!
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#540 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Dec 06, 2005 8:24 pm

T numbers are back up now!

06/2345 UTC 30.5N 34.8W T4.0/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean
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