Rain? Snow? Sleet? or Rain? for Atlanta Thurs nite?

[Brent]

Clouds would keep the temperatures up at night... shouldn't be much change to the highs.

Overall, it's pretty much a cold rain now. I don't see it changing.

[JenyEliza]

It's 25 F at my house right now.

We're already 2-3 degrees below the earlier forecast low (which they have just adjusted downward), and the clouds are moving in. Doesn't seem to me they're "keeping things warm".

Bear in mind, Brent, that I've lived in this area since 1968. I've seen many a storm catch us (and our Mets) by surprise under these kinds of conditions. It could happen.

I know....its a reach....but thicker clouds and lots of cold can help make snow, Brent.

You're beginning to look like "The Grinch Who Stole Christmas....Snow."

[Brent]

I know....its a reach....but thicker clouds and lots of cold can help make snow, Brent.

Yeah but the cold air is shallow... ice.

The clouds are just starting to move in... the evaporational cooling will stop when they are here. Thin high clouds won't do that. This is why it won't be nearly as cold tomorrow night.

Another negative... the rain now starts in the middle of the day, as opposed to the early morning, when the temperatures are colder.

[JenyEliza]

I know....its a reach....but thicker clouds and lots of cold can help make snow, Brent.

Yeah but the cold air is shallow... ice.

The clouds are just starting to move in... the evaporational cooling will stop when they are here. Thin high clouds won't do that. This is why it won't be nearly as cold tomorrow night.

Another negative... the rain now starts in the middle of the day, as opposed to the early morning, when the temperatures are colder.

You're just a bundle of Christmas cheer tonight.

[Brent]

You're just a bundle of Christmas cheer tonight.

Yep... just heard my local met out of Columbus mention it. When the clouds thicken later tonight(this really doesn't have any impact on Thursday's event), the temperatures will level off or start to rise, so our lows will probably occur earlier than normal.

I'll be the first to be optimistic if there's a chance of snow(the whole "reverse psychology" didn't work last year), but I now I even have doubts that TN will see any(or much), and I do not want ice.

[JenyEliza]

From TWC (seems closer than it's been all day--it's below that invisible fence between GA/TN).

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/fo ... 40x297.jpg

[Brent]

From TWC (seems closer than it's been all day--it's below that invisible fence between GA/TN).

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/fo ... 40x297.jpg

I am wondering if the wedge will be stronger than expected... Atlanta *could* be in trouble from ICE(not snow), similar to January 29th.

But... I still think a cold rain with any ice confined to areas north of Atlanta.

[Brent]

It's 25 F at my house right now.

WOW... it's 36 at the airport. You must live away from the city.

31.1 here.

[JenyEliza]

Oh, and my Weatherbug is saying this for my zipcode Thursday night:

Rain likely in the evening. . .then a chance of rain and freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

[Brent]

Oh, and my Weatherbug is saying this for my zipcode Thursday night:

Rain likely in the evening. . .then a chance of rain and freezing rain after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds around 10mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

That's EXACTLY what the zone forecast from the NWS says.

[JenyEliza]

It's 25 F at my house right now.

WOW... it's 36 at the airport. You must live away from the city.

31.1 here.

I'm in the NW part of the Atlanta suburbs, which is a good stretch from Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (which is where our "official" high/low readings come from).

Also, the airport is on our south side....and it tends to be much warmer there than elsewhere--especially the 'burbs.

[Brent]

It's 25 F at my house right now.

WOW... it's 36 at the airport. You must live away from the city.

31.1 here.

I'm in the NW part of the Atlanta suburbs, which is a good stretch from Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (which is where our "official" high/low readings come from).

That explains it... Atlanta is a big heat island. All those stupid lanes on the interstate.

[JenyEliza]

It's 25 F at my house right now.

WOW... it's 36 at the airport. You must live away from the city.

31.1 here.

I'm in the NW part of the Atlanta suburbs, which is a good stretch from Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (which is where our "official" high/low readings come from).

That explains it... Atlanta is a big heat island. All those stupid lanes on the interstate.

The airport itself is a giant heat island (in addition to the city).

What a stupid site to pick for our "official" readings. They almost never reflect the TRUE reality around Atlanta.

Jen

[Brent]

What a stupid site to pick for our "official" readings. They almost never reflect the TRUE reality around Atlanta.

That's how it works everywhere...

Now there are other airports outside of Atlanta that are also "official" in their own right:

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

GAZ001>058-070500-
NORTH GEORGIA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
ATLANTA MOCLDY 36 22 56 NW7 30.31S WCI 30
ATHENS MOCLDY 36 23 59 W5 30.32R WCI 32
CHAMBLEE PTCLDY 31 26 82 CALM 30.32S
PEACHTREE CITY CLEAR 28 26 92 CALM 30.34R
ROME CLEAR 30 25 81 CALM 30.34R
WEST ATLANTA PTCLDY 28 26 92 CALM 30.33S
GAINESVILLE MOCLDY 34 22 61 W5 30.32S WCI 30
CARTERSVILLE PTCLDY 27 25 92 CALM 30.35R


CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
KENNESAW* CLEAR 30 27 86 CALM 30.32S
WINDER* PTCLDY 36 23 60 NW7 30.34S WCI 30
CANTON* PTCLDY 30 23 74 CALM 30.31S

[JenyEliza]

This the forecast just north of where I live.

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low near 24. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 46. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

[Brent]

This the forecast just north of where I live.

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low near 24. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 46. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Sounds like they are trying to cover the bases because there should be no precip tomorrow night(probably not even Thursday morning) and it should be gone soon after Midnight... so I'm a bit confused.

[Brent]

OK... the timing.

Here's the 0z GFS... the very very lightest precip doesn't arrive in Atlanta til mid-morning... this is at 7am.



Oh and the freezing line isn't even close to the GA border... it's up in KENTUCKY!!!

2am Friday...



Lingering light(rain). The freezing line... once again, to the north, though it is dropping south(North AL-Chattanooga-TN/NC border).

and then 6 hours later... the moisture is all gone.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060s.gif

[JenyEliza]

This the forecast just north of where I live.

Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low near 24. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 46. East wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night: Rain likely, mixing with freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Sounds like they are trying to cover the bases because there should be no precip tomorrow night(probably not even Thursday morning) and it should be gone soon after Midnight... so I'm a bit confused.

You're confused? I'm confused.

Think maybe Peachtree City is a bit confused too?

Generally speaking, with NWS PTC, when they're confused and they don't call a storm...we get a storm. Usually a good one.

When they call a storm and the media hypes it up big....Nada. Zilch. Zero. Zip.

I've got 37 years of experience with their busts.

I'm not throwing in the towel yet. Could be something for us....or not. I think that will be clearer by early in the morning.

Jen

[Brent]

The NAM looks terrible... not a snowball's chance of anything frozen.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPTMP_0z/f48.gif

Note the low-level jet. Warm air galore.

[JenyEliza]

And check this out....something's not jiving...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... tow+County