Cincinnati winter outlook from NBC station...

[therock1811]

This is the forecast for Cincinnati for winter 2005-06 from WLWT-TV NBC 5, as posted on their website at http://www.channelcincinnati.com:

Long-range winter outlooks are hard to predict with much precision, and the variability of Tri-State weather can add to that challenge.

Over the last nine decades, we've seen as little as 1.5 inches of snow in a winter season, and as much as 4.5 feet. In fact, it's our location in the middle of normal winter storm tracks that gives us such a wide range of outcomes.

There are a few weather patterns, however, that seem to correspond to snowy -- or, conversely, relatively dry -- winters across the Ohio Valley. For those we have go far away and look at the oceans.

El Nino, and its twin sister, La Nina, can affect the weather around the globe. This unusual warming or cooling of the Pacific Ocean can mean a wet or dry -- and cold or warm -- winter across the Tri-State.

But this winter, we are in a neutral pattern, meaning neither an El Nino nor a La Nina.

Since the 1970s, the winters following a neutral pattern have been either near-normal or above-normal for snowfall across the Tri-State. An example: During the winter of 1984-85, an EL-Nino/La-Nina neutral year, the Tri-State had nearly 3 feet of snow.

Another pattern to look for is what's called the North Atlantic Oscillation. This pattern off the East Coast of the U.S. can also affect our winter outlook.

This winter, it appears the North Atlantic Oscillation will give us a variable winter, with some warm days, cold outbreaks and occasional snowstorms.

This pattern has been seen before in Tri-State winters that had higher than average snow, such as the winter of 1977-78, which had 54 inches of snowfall.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

I believe that your forecaster has underestimated the -AO this upcoming year..now as far as Cincinnati snow I believe it will be more on the line of 35-40 inches...The reason behind my reasoning is the extensive snow cover in the USA...and as we all know snow breeds snow...and with the strong -AO it will continue to stay cold in the east...So any cold air will not modify as it travels to the south as quick as it would with no snow..JSB

[therock1811]

That may be. It's a wait and see game, but I too fear it's an underestimate.

[Miss Mary]

Jeremy - thanks so much for posting this forecast. Had no idea our local NBC affiliate posts such long range forecasts!

That said I well remember the winter of 77-78. Oh yeah!

I have my ice melter (garden fertilizer), snowblower tuned up, gas for it and my trusty shovel. All ready.

Just wish my left elbow would cooperate!!! I chipped way too much ice that fused with snowfall last year, right before Christmas. Never again. We will drive over it, if I have to. I can deal with snow, but that time we had 8 hours of freezing rain, after snowfall. If you hadn't had time to clear the snow, it was one fused, collassel mess! That lasted for days....

But thanks again, appreciate this forecast.

Mary