Philip Klotzbach/Dr Grays First 2006 Outlook=17/9/5

[cycloneye]

If they take out that subsite of Colorado State University it doesn't matter because the new outlook always is early in the morning up at the main site.In April 4 he will release his next outlook so look by early that morning and will be there.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 5/dec2005/

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/



The subsite of Colorado University.

[johngaltfla]

All I know is if we do have 5 majors, the odds of the U.S. losing another major city increase.

These seasons are getting down right terrifying.

Fascinating, but terrifying.

[HURAKAN]

Fascinating, but terrifying.

GOOD ONE!!!!

[cycloneye]

I edited to put the prime author of the report Philip Klotzbach at title of thread as I forgot to include him

[P.K.]

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

lol, so hidden it gets found a few days before every forecast appears on the main page.

[HURAKAN]

The hurricane forecast will be located at a different URL tomorrow. It was placed on the web today at a hidden URL; however, somebody found it! Beginning tomorrow, the forecast will be found at:

lol, so hidden it gets found a few days before every forecast appears on the main page.

Sure! Hidden, but available to the public!

[Jim Hughes]

I edited to put the prime author of the report Philip Klotzbach at title of thread as I forgot to include him

That was the right thing to do cycloneye and it was thoughtful . Which is allot more than what I can say about TWC. I was watching it late last night and Paul Goodloe referred to the 2006 outlook as Dr Gray's.

If Gray can be so gracious to point out that Phil is now the leader of the team , because of what he has shown to him over the years, then why can't TWC ?

Talk about a ratings game. This is why I no longer look at them the same way. You can see quite clearly how they have changed over the years if you have watched them from their beginning.

I realize they are a business and they must make a profit . But this does not mean that you have to agree with their decisions. This is no different than someone preferring a mom and pop store over Walmart.

They are being very disrespectful, to an individual, who in my opinion, deserves respect.


Jim

[cycloneye]

I edited to put the prime author of the report Philip Klotzbach at title of thread as I forgot to include him

That was the right thing to do cycloneye and it was thoughtful . Which is allot more than what I can say about TWC. I was watching it late last night and Paul Goodloe referred to the 2006 outlook as Dr Gray's.

If Gray can be so gracious to point out that Phil is now the leader of the team , because of what he has shown to him over the years, then why can't TWC ?

Talk about a ratings game. This is why I no longer look at them the same way. You can see quite clearly how they have changed over the years if you have watched them from their beginning.

I realize they are a business and they must make a profit . But this does not mean that you have to agree with their decisions. This is no different than someone preferring a mom and pop store over Walmart.

They are being very disrespectful, to an individual, who in my opinion, deserves respect.


Jim

Jim I can only hope that when the next outlook from Philip Klotzbach in April is out the media says his name.

[wobblehead]

I have not read Dr. Greys complete report yet. His prediction of less U.S. landfalls is based on what?

[Derek Ortt]

they likely wont for the reasons I stated in mark sudduth's thread

[Swimdude]

Yeah... Hate to say it, but 2006 will likely be the next step in a trilogy...

[HURAKAN]

Yeah... Hate to say it, but 2006 will likely be the next step in a trilogy...

A TRAGIC TRILOGY.

[Jim Hughes]

they likely wont for the reasons I stated in mark sudduth's thread

I understand where you are coming from Derek because you are in the field but I seriously doubt the media cares about whether he is a research associate or research scientist. Your giving them to much credit.

They would never talk about an Almanac's forecast if they followed that line of thinking. This is about $$$$$

Now I guess TWC could use that angle, since they are somewhat different then the news media,

But I tend to think it did not matter to them either.


Jim

[Derek Ortt]

the main difference is is that if he were a research scientist, he'd be independent of Dr Gray. A research associate really only has a job as long as the prof works there, since it is the prof's research grants, not the university itself, that pays his salary. A research scientist gets his own grants

[MGC]

I don't see any big deal in the number of named storms. We are just in an active cycle and will be for years to come. Had there been satellites back during past active cycles many fish storms would have been included in past seasons. The lack of satellite only reduced the numbers of named storms thus skewing the averages. I would not be surprised if 1933 had a few undetected storms thus making the 2005 season numbers not as significant. What I am saying is that while 2005 was a very active season it has likely been duplicated in the past. I just hope Dr. Gray's team is off the mark on the low side......MGC

[seaswing]

I edited to put the prime author of the report Philip Klotzbach at title of thread as I forgot to include him

That was the right thing to do cycloneye and it was thoughtful . Which is allot more than what I can say about TWC. I was watching it late last night and Paul Goodloe referred to the 2006 outlook as Dr Gray's.

If Gray can be so gracious to point out that Phil is now the leader of the team , because of what he has shown to him over the years, then why can't TWC ?

Talk about a ratings game. This is why I no longer look at them the same way. You can see quite clearly how they have changed over the years if you have watched them from their beginning.

I realize they are a business and they must make a profit . But this does not mean that you have to agree with their decisions. This is no different than someone preferring a mom and pop store over Walmart.

They are being very disrespectful, to an individual, who in my opinion, deserves respect.


Jim

They were not very respectful of John Hope who was a hurricane forecaster for many years. He was a realist but he was condemned and chastised for making predictions and calling it like it really was. He was painted into an alarmist by TWC and Steve Lyons came into the picture. Not to say that Steve Lyons isn't a good forecaster, he worked for NHC before TWC. It is just that I feel that when you see his reporting, it is more 'reporting' than forecasting. I never know where HE stands on an issue. It is more like I know where TWC stands....neutral. I liked John Hope because he not only predicted, he explained and I felt that I was informed. Just my 2 cents....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These numbers are high no doubt- the big factor I am watching
apart from neutral/la nina conditions is SST anomalies...

[Jim Hughes]

They were not very respectful of John Hope who was a hurricane forecaster for many years. He was a realist but he was condemned and chastised for making predictions and calling it like it really was. He was painted into an alarmist by TWC and Steve Lyons came into the picture. Not to say that Steve Lyons isn't a good forecaster, he worked for NHC before TWC. It is just that I feel that when you see his reporting, it is more 'reporting' than forecasting. I never know where HE stands on an issue. It is more like I know where TWC stands....neutral. I liked John Hope because he not only predicted, he explained and I felt that I was informed. Just my 2 cents....

Codemmed is a rather strong word here. I am personally unaware of TWC treating John Hope like this but I guess anything is possible. I thought Steve Lyons came aboard after John's health started to fail. Maybe I am wrong.

TWC is not neutral in the GW debate and this is why they brought aboard climate expert Dr Heidi Cullen. (Read up on her hiring)

TWC had decided to take a stand. Heidi Cullen never comes right out and says it is occurring but most of her climate updates/ stories always point towards it.

She likes to end her piece by saying something like "This is what is supposed to happen if global warming is occurring. But do we know for sure that this particular event is being caused by global warming? No, but it might be another indicator."

They should also do some stories about some other possible factors if they want to appear more neutral.



Jim

[Jim Hughes]

These numbers are high no doubt- the big factor I am watching
apart from neutral/la nina conditions is SST anomalies...

I am not to sure that I would call the ENSO conditions neutral right now. I would follow things yourself instead of relying on NOAA's interpetation . They usually start talking about one existing after everybody down to the elemenatary school level knows that one of the two phases is already in place.

The 30 & 90 day SOI averages are currently not in line with the cooler SST anomalies but the latter is definitely pointing towards conditions not seen since the late 90's.

So it's starting to look more and more likely that the Carolina's could be in for an eventful season next year.


Jim

[Derek Ortt]

Heidi Cullen also got chastised at RSMAS a couple of years ago when she tried to give an all man made global warming seminar