Snow for Texas

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

I already located my long-lost gloves and beanie - I just hope I can use them to shield myself against snowballs and not just frigid temperatures!

NWS Fort Worth is saying that the precipitation (in the form of freezing rain, sleet, the whole ruddy mix) should begin here in the Metroplex sometime around noon or a few hours after. Should I expect a school closing, or is it more likely that they'll start the day and send us home early before the ice arrives? By 4pm, it's going to be too late to attempt to drive home...

The forecast low for tonight is 27, and the high for tomorrow is 27 as well, meaning that any precipitation that falls will be frozen. As of right now, we are at exactly 32 degrees. Apparently, this is the last I'm going to see of the freezing mark until Friday, when it's supposed to be around 50.

I'm excited.


NWS statement:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
945 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO INVADE NORTH TEXAS...BRINGING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT IN
THE FAR WEST AS THE FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD...WITH THE COLD
AIR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...PULLING WARM...MOIST AIR UP AND OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR
AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING NORTH OVER THE FRIGID AIRMASS
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. THE WINTER STORM WATCH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. THEREFORE...THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS IS NOW UNDER A
WINTER STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL NOT BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY. EVEN SMALL
AMOUNTS OF ICE ON ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO THE SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS AND BE
PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST OF
A GREENVILLE TO WAXAHACHIE TO COMANCHE LINE...A CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW MAY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
LINE...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS NORTHWEST OF A PARIS TO GREENVILLE TO
WAXAHACHIE TO COMANCHE LINE MAY REACH 1/4 OF AN INCH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA MAY ALSO REACH ONE INCH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF ICE AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

TXZ093-102>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159-071145-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0001.051207T1200Z-051208T1200Z/
GRAYSON-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...WACO
945 PM CST TUE DEC 6 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM CST THURSDAY...

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING IN THE
AREA SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35...AND SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARIS...TO GREENVILLE...TO
WAXAHACHIE...TO COMANCHE LINE. TOTAL SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE QUARTER INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. IN
THE AREA WHERE SNOW IS POSSIBLE...UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Note that the entire DFW Metroplex is to the north and west of the Greenville-Waxahachie line that the NHC is drawing. I guess that means I should expect more accumulation in the way of ice, and only an inch or so of snow on top of that. At least the ground will be cold by then. I had been worried that our record highs on Sunday would have kept the ground too warm for the snow to stick.

[Brent]

Should I expect a school closing, or is it more likely that they'll start the day and send us home early before the ice arrives? By 4pm, it's going to be too late to attempt to drive home...

I would expect an early dismissal... though I wouldn't be surprised if they cancel outright being under a warning and with the precip likely to be close at decision time.

[CaptinCrunch]

Made it to work this morning, it's currently 30 degrees and some light freezing drizzle is falling in down town Fort Worth. Freezing rain and sleet has been reported from FTW W, NW and SW with the freeze line now thru Tarrant Co and the Northwestern parts of Dallas Co. Condictions will continue to get worse as the morning progresses.

The temp has dropped to 28 since I started this post.

[AggieSpirit]

I just got into work in 1 and 1/2 hours. It normally takes me 30-40 minutes.

Conditions in Tarrant county (Ft Worth, Arlington, North Richland Hills) have already deteriorated with regard to traffic.

Encountered ice on virtually every overpass, and saw 7 wrecks on loop 820 this morning.

Looks like the precipitation started earlier than forcasted by the major media outlets. However, I would like to point out that the NWS issued a Winter Storm Warning in effect at 6 Am to 6 Pm tonight. First reports of freezing rain in the metroplex came in at 6 am. Way to go NWS!

[Portastorm]

You guys in North Texas ... thanks for the posts and keep 'em coming!!

Right now in Austin ... light rain falling and 43 degrees. Arctic boundary not here yet but a cold, raw rain is coming down.

[vbhoutex]

What about 1895 in Houston?

That was the year we got 20" in a near blizzard.

The rains came in earlier than expected, but the cold is not here yet(the arctic cold). To me this is raising the possibility that we may have problems later this evening and overnight with some icing, especially since it has already started in DFW metroplex. Will be watching it closely, especially since I may have to go out in the field for work today!

[gboudx]

Nothing yet here in Plano or on the ride from Rockwall. Temp was 36 most of the way, but dropped to 34 as I got to work in Plano. I'm thinking of talking my boss into letting me leave early and work from home the rest of the day.

[CaptinCrunch]

Temp has fallen to 25 here in Down town Ft Worth, we have had periods of light freezing rain mixed with sleet at times. As I look out my window I can see the I30-I35 interchange and cars are going over the mix-master at a very slow pace. Texdot stated that most bridges and overpasses in Tarrant Co are stating to freeze over. Looks to be a light freezing mist in the air right now, and local radar shows a large area of freezing mix moving up from the SW into Tarrant Co.

Let the fun begin.

[david30]

Captain im glad to see you all are getting some winter, Im actually north of you in latitude in nw ms along the highway 82 corridor and we are going to get the royal shaft. THe trend the last 3 years has been for storms to develop your way and then lift ne socking you all and sw ark and nothing for us. Unfortunately this appears to be the trend this time also. I cant believe the cold air is that close and we wont actually get anything in fact we are still in the 30s here as I speak but will probably warm up. Im sure hoping something changes and that storm moves due east.

[Kelarie]

376
WWUS46 KEWX 071603 WSI PPS:071603
WSWEWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 AM CST WED DEC 7 2005

...ARCTIC FRONT AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

.A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND AUSTIN METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.

TXZ171>173-188-190-192-080300-
/O.NEW.KEWX.ZR.Y.0001.051207T1800Z-051208T0600Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-GILLESPIE-BLANCO-TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...FREDERICKSBURG...BLANCO...AUSTIN
1003 AM CST WED DEC 7 2005

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND ELEVATED ROADS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OF ICE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[Portastorm]

I have a feeling the bottom will drop out shortly here in the Austin area. Temps just 10-20 miles to our north and northwest are at freezing and dropping. Arctic boundary must be on us. Local NWS has issued Freezing Rain Advisory. Radar echoes show most of heavier stuff to our north but more developing to our south.

You folks in the DFW area ... please be careful! Sounds like there might be a need to head home early today up there.

[txtwister]

Hi All - I do not post much, but sure enjoy reading on this forum. I am in Allen Texas, which is north of Plano and south of McKinney. We have had some drizzle here and the temp is falling, right now it is 30 degrees. I am looking out my windows and most of the roofs on my street have a light dusting of white. We will see as the day goes on. I am just glad that it finally feels more like the holidays. I hate having 80 degree days in the late fall!

[vbhoutex]

Watching the boundaries closely on the radars and they are definitely moving S and SE closer to Austin and for that matter even SE TX. If we get anything besides cold rain down here it won't be till tonight though and it appears the raim may move out prior to the freezing point being reached, at least according to local mets. The link below has most of the current watches/warnings for TX I believe.

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/tx/winterstorm.html

[CaptinCrunch]

Just had another band of freezing rain and sleet move thru, bridges and overpasses are totally froze over, the I-30 I-35 interchange is at a stand still with several wreaks, cars are having a hard time making it up the steep incline. Current temp is 25 and fallening, and the wind is from the N at 10mph, wind chill is around 19 degrees.

[Johnny]

CaptinCrunch...sounds like some serioius winter weather up that way for sure!! Be safe up that way.


Ok, is Joe B. still thinking the Houston area will see some wintery precip?

[Kelarie]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1008 AM CST WED DEC 7 2005

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON AOB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO LLANO...BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES AND RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING AREAS OF RAIN. FREEZING RAIN CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AWOS/ASOS SITES ACROSS WFO FWD'S AREA WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TO SHOW FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOT AT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE BACK ABOVE FREEZING BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM THURSDAY.

[jasons2k]

This reminds me of Feb. 2003 when everyone went to work (even though an icy mess was clearly forecasted) and the commute home took hours. I left at 2:00 that day and it still took 3 hours to go from Las Colinas to Frisco. Later that evening it was a 6-hour drive up I-35 from Carrollton to Denton. Looks like a similiar situation is on the way - if you at work I'd see if I could go home now, otherwise it's gonna be a long night.

FWIW I don't think we have anything to worry about in Houston - except a freeze.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 AM CST WED DEC 7 2005

.UPDATE...
950 AM CST

SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ON 12Z SOUNDING EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH
MINIMUM EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...WILL GRADUALLY COOL AND
TRANSITION TO FROZEN PRECIP (PL/SN) SHOULD OCCUR. NUMEROUS REPORTS
OF SLEET ACROSS METROPLEX...SNOW REPORTED IN GAINESVILLE AND GRAHAM.
CURRENT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER FOR ANY CHANGES IN TIME OF PRECIP
TRANSITION...TO AGREE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF NEXT 18 HRS.

EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. NW ZONES...ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SE ZONES...
ADVISORY TONIGHT.

ARCTIC FRONT DAMNING AIR UPHILL...ORIENTING N-S. TEENS OOZING
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...WEIGHT OF
COLD AIR WILL SLIDE FRONT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL FALL
MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND FRONTAL MOVEMENT.

This Afternoon: Periods of freezing rain and sleet. Steady temperature around 24. Windy, with a north wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Ice accumulation of .25 to .50 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow and sleet likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 32. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low near 18. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[gboudx]

Sort of snowing here in Plano with a temp of 28.

[jeff]

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect



Winter Storm event underway across N TX.



Arctic cold front moving through the metro area at this time with temps. falling to freezing behind the front. Local warning radar is showing increasing echoes as warm moist Gulf air is transported northward above the cold air. Several station area already reporting mixed precipitation and this should continue into the metro area sites shortly.



Freezing rain and sleet will be the main precip. modes this morning with ice accumulations of 1/4th to ½ of an inch. Road conditions will go downhill very quickly by midday as ice begins to accumulate on bridges and overpasses. Travel is strongly discouraged. As the cold air deepens this evening the freezing rain and sleet will change to snow with 1-1.5 inches of accumulation especially along and N of I-20.



Temps. will remain below freezing through midday Thursday so much of what falls should remain on the ground for at least 24-36 hours.



An airport weather warning is in effect for all N TX terminals through midnight for heavy aircraft icing. Long delays should be expected as aircraft go through rigorous de-icing operations. TXDOT and local county and city departments will begin sanding and salting operations this morning of bridges and overpasses, but by early evening such operations will not make much difference as temps. fall into the mid 20’s.



Travel will become extremely dangerous by mid afternoon across N TX and it is strongly discouraged. Residents should take the needed precautions for an extended period of sub-freezing temps. and poor road conditions.