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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2005
.UPDATE...
1119 AM...
FOR AVIATION...WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THINGS WILL BE GOING DOWNHILL QUICKLY. OUR EARLY
THOUGHTS FOLLOW...BUT COULD BE UPDATED AS WE GO OVER INCOMING DATA.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...FIRST IN THE WEST AND
THEN SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST AS IT PLUMMETS SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS IN
THE SOUTH AND SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE WEST AND SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FTW AND AFW LIKELY REACHING THE
FREEZING POINT LATE IN THE MORNING...DFW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
DAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE...WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR ZR- AT
FTW AND AFW AFTER 16Z BUT HOLD OFF FOR DFW AND DAL. IF THE FRONT IS
FASTER THEN WE WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE PUBLIC FORECAST...IT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR NOW SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGES. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
537 AM CST...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS 6-12KT TODAY AND EARLY EVENING....THEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND BEGINS TO VEER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE KDFW TRACON
AROUND 09-11Z TONIGHT AND INTO THE KACT TRACON SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/WED. DOUBT IF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN OVER THE TRACONS BEFORE
12Z.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT TAF CYCLE TO BE ISSUED AT 18Z
TODAY. ALSO...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KDFW AND KACT TRACONS. 75
&&
.DISCUSSION...
45A AM.
WE HAVE NOT CHANGED THE AREA AND TIMING OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YOUNG WINTER
SEASON.
ISENTROPIC LIFT...BRINGING WARM...MOIST AIR ALOFT INTO NORTH TEXAS
FROM THE SOUTH...WILL COMBINE WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT TO TRIGGER SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND TURN TO VARIOUS MIXTURES OF
RAIN...SNOW...SOME FREEZING RAIN...AND MAYBE EVEN SLEET. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WE HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FROM THE WACO AND
TEMPLE AREAS NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FREEZING AND FROZEN
IN THE NORTH...AND RAIN TURNING TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...AND EVEN SOME SLEET AND SNOW IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FREEZING RAIN...OF COURSE...WILL CAUSE
THE GREATEST CONCERN...WHEN AND WHERE IT OCCURS.
THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS OF UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOULD HELP TO SORT OUT
PRECIP TYPES A BIT MORE.
WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN MANY AREAS...BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DOWN THE DAYS 4-7 ROAD...AS TO
POSSIBLE RAIN EVENTS IN THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. THUS...WE HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL NOT DO SO UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE DAY EXTENDED PERIOD.
