Snow for Texas

[jeff]

Arctic front moving through TX with very cold air.



Mixed precipitation has begun across central and north TX and will gradually spread southward today and tonight.



Strong arctic front pressing southward this morning and currently extends from just north of Del Rio to NW of Austin to DFW. Temp at Austin is 45 and San Angelo is 27 with 7 at Amarillo with light snow. Impressive temp. contrast over the DFW metro area with Love field at 42 and Fort Worth at 32 just behind the boundary. A surface low pressure wave has developed along the arctic boundary near Waco and has slowed the southward progress over E TX, this will delay the frontal timing by about 6 hours today.



Widespread lifting has commenced this morning with a lowering cloud deck and scattered rainfall developing. Rain is resulting in evaporative cooling of the dry low level air mass over the region and once the rain begins in earnest this afternoon temps will remain steady or fall slightly. Arctic front should reach the NW sections of the area around 300-400pm and push off the coast before midnight. Temps. will fall quickly this evening as drier air advects at the surface and evaporative cooling lowers the surface temp. toward the falling dewpoints. Full blown winter storm will be in progress over N and NC TX by mid afternoon with a combination of freezing rain, sleet, and snow as far south as Temple and Waco. Accumulations of ice and snow should average 1-2 inches across N TX by Thursday morning.



Tonight:

Tough forecast for tonight as rainfall continues and freezing line advances into the area. Overall feeling and model cross sections suggest the arctic dome is very shallow and main precip. mode should be rain. Problem area is NW of a line from La Grange to Brenham to Huntsville to Lufkin where surface temps. will likely fall to freezing resulting in the rainfall freezing into ice as it contacts the ground (freezing rain). It appears the rainfall should be ending as the surface temps. fall to freezing as the cold air deepens. May need a winter weather advisory or freezing rain advisory for our NW and N counties this afternoon as upstream temp. trends become better defined. Any ice accumulations should be minor and mainly confined to trees and power lines. SE of the above mentioned line including Harris County profiles look too warm for any but rain.



Clouds may linger well into Thursday and this should keep daytime highs very cool across the area. Should see highs only reach the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Not quite sure what Thursday night will bring as latest guidance swings another short wave through south TX will clouds continuing to hang on. This could hamper the temperature fall Thursday night. Even with clouds temps. will still manage to fall into the upper 20’s over most of the area considering the ice and snow cover that will be on the ground just to our northwest.



Arctic high remains in place through Saturday with clouds lingering as an active sub-tropical jet continues. Will go with highs only in the 40’s again on Friday and in the 50’s on Saturday before the high shifts east and modification begins Sunday.



Forecast:



Today: cloudy, wet, and cool. Near steady temperatures in the upper 40’s and low 50’s. Chance of rain 60%. ENE winds becoming NE and increasing to 15-20mph.



Tonight: cloudy, wet, and turning much colder.



For locations SE of a line from Columbus to Huntsville to Lufkin. A 70% chance of rain with lows in the mid to upper 30’s. North winds 15-25mph and gusty. Wind chills in the lower 20’s.



Fort locations NW of a line from Columbus to Huntsville to Lufkin: A 50% chance of rain changing to freezing rain mixed with sleet after midnight. Lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. North winds 15-25mph and gusty with wind chills in the teens. Ice accumulation of less than 1/10th of an inch.



Thursday: cloudy and cold with a 30% chance of light rain early. Highs in the upper 30’s. North winds 10-20mph and gusty with wind chills in the upper teens and lower 20’s.



Thursday night: Partly cloudy and cold.



N of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Liberty: lows from 22-26



Metro Area (outside the Beltway): lows from 26-29

Metro Area (inside the Beltway): lows from 28-31



Coastal counties: lows from 29-33



Friday: Increasing clouds and continued cold with highs in the upper 40’s.

[jeff]

Mixed precip. falling across central and north TX. Currently it is 24 with freezing rain at Fort Worth Mecham airport with sleet at Dallas Addison.



Road conditions are rapidly becoming hazardous as ice is accumulating on bridges and overpasses. It is advised that persons be where they plan to be for the duration of this event by noon today. I-20 and I-30 bridges are icing and sanding crews are spreading sand, but with temps into the 20’s the sand will do little for drivers.



Precip. will continue to increase and gradually change to snow this afternoon with accumulations of 1-2 inches across the area.

[southerngale]

Not the best radar out there, but good for getting a general idea of where the rain/snow/mix is in Texas. Just click on the northern part of the map if you want it to loop North Texas. Same for east/west.

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[gboudx]

That Intellicast radar implies that the precip over all of DFW is snow. However that is not the case at the surface. It's a mix of rain/sleet/snow pellets. It would be great if it was only snow, for travel reasons.

[PTrackerLA]

Be careful everyone in the Dallas area, sounds dangerous out there on the roads!

[southerngale]

Yeah, unfortunately, it labels all of blue as snow. I've learned over the years that it's not always snow, but can be a wintry precip and I guess it doesn't handle the mix well. Sorry....it's what I use for a general idea and it covers a large area. I use NWS and local radars for better and closer range.

Does anyone have a better radar that shows where the rain/ice/snow is?

[Kelarie]

Just heard on the radio that Pflugerville and Georgetown schools will be letting out early. They weren't sure how early.

[jasons2k]

No radar will be perfect at displaying the line(s). From what I understand it depends on how they interpret the various layers, i.e., if the entire column from 850 to the surface is lower than 0C then it will display snow. That may or may not be what is actually happening, especially in very shallow airmasses such as this.

The best tool to use is just look at the surface obs. I wouldn't use Forth Worth - Spinks as a guide though - it seems to always display Mixed Precip. below about 40F even if it's just raining.

[Portastorm]

Just heard on the radio that Pflugerville and Georgetown schools will be letting out early. They weren't sure how early.

Not surprised, Kel ... we just hit freezing at my house in north Austin and we now have below freezing temps in Williamson County and Burnet County.

I wonder if the NWS folks in New Braunfels will be upgrading us to a Winter Storm Warning later today?

[Kelarie]

Well I have to retract that about the schools. They just came on and said they got some bad info. That was a big oooppsss. The poor radio guy. There are probaby hundreds of parents calling those ISDs.

I am surprised tho, that they aren't looking at what is happening and not letting the schools out.

[Johnny]

Don't get y'alls hopes down on seeing a snow flake or two. I know a lady in Sulpher Springs and it is only 45 degrees there and she has had some light flurries. Also, just up the way in Centerville it is the same temperature and regional observations show light flurries their also. That's just about an hour and half north of Conroe. I'll see if I can dig up some more reports.

On a side note: Weatherford, just west of Fort Worth is 18 degrees with a windchill of 5!

[jasons2k]

Don't get y'alls hopes down on seeing a snow flake or two. I know a lady in Sulpher Springs and it is only 45 degrees there and she has had some light flurries. Also, just up the way in Centerville it is the same temperature and regional observations show light flurries their also. That's just about an hour and half north of Conroe. I'll see if I can dig up some more reports.

On a side note: Weatherford, just west of Fort Worth is 18 degrees with a windchill of 5!

The Centerville flurries observation is likely an automated reporting station error. The rain/snow line hasn't pushed that far SE.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Woke up to flurries and a dusting in the roof crevices around 10:30am. (I'm a night owl )

Started yelling "SNOW!!!!!!!" and it stopped soon after that. But just now it's started sleeting pretty hardcore. The accumulation is mostly in the form of sleet - looks like rock candy almost...I'm tempted to eat some, but in DFW that's a bad idea. For a geographical reference, I live right on the border between Allen and Plano, and just south of the 121-Custer crossing where Frisco and McKinney intersect as well.

No ice on the ground yet though - travel still seems alright, but if this sleet continues it's going to go downhill very fast.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Well I have to retract that about the schools. They just came on and said they got some bad info. That was a big oooppsss. The poor radio guy. There are probaby hundreds of parents calling those ISDs.

I am surprised tho, that they aren't looking at what is happening and not letting the schools out.

Indeed. I'm glad I'm homeschooling my senior year. My friends are going to have a heck of a time trying to get home. (or, to my house, because we've already made plans for a snowball fight after school if it ever accumulates)

[gboudx]

Well, here in Plano, it's wet outside, but nothing is froze. And the precip has stopped for now. NWS radar shows a large band moving into southern Dallas county, but nothing else after that. Is this event about to be over, or just taking a break?

[jasons2k]

Woke up to flurries and a dusting in the roof crevices around 10:30am. (I'm a night owl )

Started yelling "SNOW!!!!!!!" and it stopped soon after that. But just now it's started sleeting pretty hardcore. The accumulation is mostly in the form of sleet - looks like rock candy almost...I'm tempted to eat some, but in DFW that's a bad idea. For a geographical reference, I live right on the border between Allen and Plano, and just south of the 121-Custer crossing where Frisco and McKinney intersect as well.

No ice on the ground yet though - travel still seems alright, but if this sleet continues it's going to go downhill very fast.

Hmm, from what I understand if you are are south of 121 and west of Custer you are in Plano, not Frisco. If you are south of 121 and east of Custer you are in Allen.

You have to be NORTH of 121 (and west of Custer) to be in Frisco.

[pup55]

http://www.earthcam.com/jfk/

dealey plaza webcam says traffic is moving right along, which it wouldn't be if there was an ice event.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Lol, I know. I live in Plano technically, but when I look out my bedroom window, I see a field across the street in Allen, and because I live north of McDermott Drive, I go to school (or did) in the Frisco ISD. So the main city that I identify with is Frisco. Plus, Frisco/Allen/McKinney weather reports come from McKinney Airport, which is closer to conditions over my house than weather reported in Plano which comes from Addison and is meant for people living farther south into the heart of Plano.

Currently nothing coming out of the sky, but it sure is chilly out, and some mulch and north-facing rooftops and trees are dusted with white.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, Addison is always about 5 degrees warmer than Plano/Frisco/Allen.

[Mattie]

That Custer/121 intersection has a piece of all cities - had light snowfall this morning in McKinney, not much happening at the moment though. Clouds seem to be thickening up and it is definitely cooooooooooooooold. I telecommute, so I'm sitting in front of a roaring fire and sipping hot chocolate (while playing on the weatherboard) and *working*.