"WINTER STORM WATCH"
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
"WINTER STORM WATCH"
SOUTH WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ARE NOW UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH!!
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ohiostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1582
- Age: 40
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 2:51 pm
- Location: Orlando, FL
- Contact:
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-071600-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0002.051208T2200Z-051209T1700Z/
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...
NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...
EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...
WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...
STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...
ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE...
BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE...
GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...
SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...
ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...
REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...
MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...
WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...
MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...
JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...
UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...OHIOPYLE...TORONTO...WEIRTON...
WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...
MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
204 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST-WARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING SNOW TO SOUTHERN
EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THIS
SNOW TO QUICKLY OVER-SPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING. THE CURRENT PREDICTED TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL CAUSE
SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 6 INCHES OR GREATER IS
POSSIBLE BY DAWN FRIDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS STORM WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE CHANGES AND UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...WEATHER RADIO
OR LOG ONTO WEATHER.GOV FOR ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
204 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-071600-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0002.051208T2200Z-051209T1700Z/
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-
VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-
ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...
NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...
EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...
WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...
STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...
ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE...SHADYSIDE...
BRIDGEPORT...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE...
GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...
SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...
ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...
REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...
MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...
WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...
MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...
JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...WAYNESBURG...FAIRDALE...
UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...OHIOPYLE...TORONTO...WEIRTON...
WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...
MORGANTOWN...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...DAVIS...THOMAS
204 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST-WARD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING SNOW TO SOUTHERN
EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THIS
SNOW TO QUICKLY OVER-SPREAD THE REST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING. THE CURRENT PREDICTED TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL CAUSE
SNOWFALL INTENSITY TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. 6 INCHES OR GREATER IS
POSSIBLE BY DAWN FRIDAY.
THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS STORM WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE CHANGES AND UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...WEATHER RADIO
OR LOG ONTO WEATHER.GOV FOR ANY WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
$$
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therock1811
- Category 5
- Posts: 5163
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 2:15 pm
- Location: Kentucky
- Contact:
This is part of the NWS forecast for part of northern Kentucky...I don't know about this one:
THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 20. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
3 to 5 inches just in the afternoon?? Does that seem right?
THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 20. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF SNOW 100 PERCENT.
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
3 to 5 inches just in the afternoon?? Does that seem right?
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tomboudreau
- Category 5
- Posts: 1869
- Age: 48
- Joined: Tue Feb 18, 2003 6:07 pm
- Location: Carnegie, PA
- Contact:
Here is part of the NWS PIT forecast discussion from 2:20 AM. It depicts something that I am concerned about greatly...the dry slot. If the dry slot develops, then we will get very little snow out of this system.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY THU NIGHT. PLENTY OF UL SUPPORT AND
STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SFC SYSTEM. WAS INITIALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT COASTAL DEVELOPMENT PULLING ENERGY FROM
SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH STRONG EAST COAST RIDGING IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING 50H LOW...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY FOR COASTAL SYSTEM
TO GET GOING. SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY WET AND WITH STRONG OMEGA AND
UL DIVERGENCE WOULD EXPECT SOME BANDING SNOW AND FAST
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR SEEMS REASONABLE. ONE PROBLEM
COULD BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL STORM STARTS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER. THIS WILL HAMPER SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. COASTAL STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES FRIDAY MORNING AND
RACES OUR TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO THE SNOW FRIDAY. DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES BEHIND SYSTEM AS WE HAVE
WAA ALOFT AND A VERY STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. GFS INDICATING LW
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
CARRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE TROUGH KEEPING IN A CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY THU NIGHT. PLENTY OF UL SUPPORT AND
STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT ACCOMPANY THE SFC SYSTEM. WAS INITIALLY
CONCERNED ABOUT COASTAL DEVELOPMENT PULLING ENERGY FROM
SYSTEM...HOWEVER WITH STRONG EAST COAST RIDGING IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING 50H LOW...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY FOR COASTAL SYSTEM
TO GET GOING. SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY WET AND WITH STRONG OMEGA AND
UL DIVERGENCE WOULD EXPECT SOME BANDING SNOW AND FAST
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR SO AN HOUR SEEMS REASONABLE. ONE PROBLEM
COULD BE THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL DEVELOP LATE THU NIGHT AS THE
COASTAL STORM STARTS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER. THIS WILL HAMPER SOME
ACCUMULATIONS. COASTAL STORM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES FRIDAY MORNING AND
RACES OUR TO SEA. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO THE SNOW FRIDAY. DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES BEHIND SYSTEM AS WE HAVE
WAA ALOFT AND A VERY STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. GFS INDICATING LW
TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
CARRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WAVES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH
THE TROUGH KEEPING IN A CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
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nholley
- Category 1
- Posts: 390
- Age: 50
- Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 5:18 pm
- Location: Harrisburg PA
- Contact:
Watches have just gone up for central PA:
Winter Storm Watch from the National Weather Service:
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/ POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW INTO THE REGION.
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
Winter Storm Watch from the National Weather Service:
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/ POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE- SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- 1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW INTO THE REGION.
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
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angelwing
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4462
- Age: 64
- Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
- Location: Kulpsville, PA
All we have in Philly so far s the following:
Special Weather Statement
Philadelphia (Pennsylvania)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-072115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
246 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM ALOFT. LATEST PROJECTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SOME WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN IN FROM THE OCEAN,
POSSIBLY CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
DELAWARE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST LOW WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEP UPDATED ON THE DEVELOPMENTS OF
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM BY LISTENING FOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS, OR FROM YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS.
$$
STAUBER
Special Weather Statement
Philadelphia (Pennsylvania)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-072115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
246 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
AN ACTIVE JET STREAM ALOFT. LATEST PROJECTIONS INDICATE ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING QUICKLY OUT TO SEA. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SOME WARM AIR MAY BE DRAWN IN FROM THE OCEAN,
POSSIBLY CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
DELAWARE AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST LOW WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEP UPDATED ON THE DEVELOPMENTS OF
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM BY LISTENING FOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS, OR FROM YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS.
$$
STAUBER
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Stephanie-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38090
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EARLY FRIDAY.
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-080400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CUMBERLAND...HAGERSTOWN...
FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...
LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KEYSER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.
A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THIS
STORM HAS A POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FIVE INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW.
IN ADDITION...COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND MAY EXPERIENCE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO
AREAS...JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS
TIMING WOULD CAUSE A DETERIORATION OF DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS REQUIRED AS THE
STORM NEARS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EARLY FRIDAY.
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-080400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CUMBERLAND...HAGERSTOWN...
FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...
LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KEYSER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.
A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THIS
STORM HAS A POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FIVE INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW.
IN ADDITION...COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND MAY EXPERIENCE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO
AREAS...JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS
TIMING WOULD CAUSE A DETERIORATION OF DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS REQUIRED AS THE
STORM NEARS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
0 likes
#neversummer
Brent wrote:URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EARLY FRIDAY.
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-080400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
PENDLETON-HARDY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...CUMBERLAND...HAGERSTOWN...
FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...
HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...
LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...BAYARD...
PETERSBURG...KEYSER...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN
141 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA.
A WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
IT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THIS
STORM HAS A POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FIVE INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW.
IN ADDITION...COMMUNITIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND MAY EXPERIENCE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA...INCLUDING THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO
AREAS...JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THIS
TIMING WOULD CAUSE A DETERIORATION OF DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
STAY TUNED NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AS REQUIRED AS THE
STORM NEARS.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Figures. I have family in the Falls Church/Fairfax area (where I lived until I was 5).
Oh brother.
0 likes
Watches everywhere!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-080030-
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOW INTO THE REGION.
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-080030-
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.051208T2300Z-051209T1700Z/
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-
NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-
SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
1130 AM EST WED DEC 7 2005
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY EVENING...SPREADING POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOW INTO THE REGION.
ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA COULD RECEIVE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.
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Storm Watch extends into SE PAm NJ and DE - BRING IT ON!!!
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 308 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2005
New Castle-Cecil-Kent MD-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including The Cities Of... Wilmington... Elkton... Chestertown... New Brunswick... Freehold... Sandy Hook... Trenton... Pennsville... Glassboro... Camden... Cherry Hill... Moorestown... Mount Holly... Jackson... Long Beach Island... Wharton State Forest... Media
... Winter Storm Watch In Effect From Thursday Evening Through Friday Morning...
A Large Cold High Pressure System Pushing In From The Upper Midwest Will Settle Over The Mid Atlantic Region Thursday And Set The Stage For Our Next Round Of Inclement Winter Weather.
Double-Barrelled Low Pressure Will Approach The Region Thursday Night. One Center Will Move Northeast From The Tennessee Valley And Dissipate Over Western New York State Friday Morning As A Second Area Of Low Pressure Moves Northeast From The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. This Low Will Reach The North Carolina Coast Early Friday And Then Intensify Rapidly As It Heads Northeast Out To Sea.
The Snow Associated With These Systems Will Spread Into The Region By Midnight Thursday Night And Continue Until Midday Friday. Some Sleet, And Possibly Even A Brief Period Of Freezing Rain, May Mix With The Snow At Times Friday Morning.
A Winter Storm Watch Is Issued When There Is The Potential For A Significant Accumulation Of Snow, Sleet, And Freezing Rain In The 24 To 48 Hour Time Frame That May Impact Travel. With This In Mind, The Most Recent Data Suggests That An Accumulation Of 4 To 7 Inches Of Snow Is Possible With This Event
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
Urgent - Winter Weather Message National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 308 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2005
New Castle-Cecil-Kent MD-Middlesex-Western Monmouth- Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- Including The Cities Of... Wilmington... Elkton... Chestertown... New Brunswick... Freehold... Sandy Hook... Trenton... Pennsville... Glassboro... Camden... Cherry Hill... Moorestown... Mount Holly... Jackson... Long Beach Island... Wharton State Forest... Media
... Winter Storm Watch In Effect From Thursday Evening Through Friday Morning...
A Large Cold High Pressure System Pushing In From The Upper Midwest Will Settle Over The Mid Atlantic Region Thursday And Set The Stage For Our Next Round Of Inclement Winter Weather.
Double-Barrelled Low Pressure Will Approach The Region Thursday Night. One Center Will Move Northeast From The Tennessee Valley And Dissipate Over Western New York State Friday Morning As A Second Area Of Low Pressure Moves Northeast From The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. This Low Will Reach The North Carolina Coast Early Friday And Then Intensify Rapidly As It Heads Northeast Out To Sea.
The Snow Associated With These Systems Will Spread Into The Region By Midnight Thursday Night And Continue Until Midday Friday. Some Sleet, And Possibly Even A Brief Period Of Freezing Rain, May Mix With The Snow At Times Friday Morning.
A Winter Storm Watch Is Issued When There Is The Potential For A Significant Accumulation Of Snow, Sleet, And Freezing Rain In The 24 To 48 Hour Time Frame That May Impact Travel. With This In Mind, The Most Recent Data Suggests That An Accumulation Of 4 To 7 Inches Of Snow Is Possible With This Event
0 likes
-
tomboudreau
- Category 5
- Posts: 1869
- Age: 48
- Joined: Tue Feb 18, 2003 6:07 pm
- Location: Carnegie, PA
- Contact:
http://wcpo.cincinnati.com/weather/skycam/
looks like a nice sunset tonight in Cincinnati--530edt.
Obviously the calm before the storm.
looks like a nice sunset tonight in Cincinnati--530edt.
Obviously the calm before the storm.
0 likes
-
Gord_on_snow
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 100
- Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2004 9:34 am
- Location: Columbus, OH
Anything other than a repeat of last weekend for here i suppose!
We shall see, hopefully all will be clear this time tomorrow.
Every forecast in this area is fairly bullish about this though.
But then again, I'm British so I'm satisfied with just an inch!
Not a bad little bit of snowfall yesterday evening. Not much covering but certainly festive!
We shall see, hopefully all will be clear this time tomorrow.
Every forecast in this area is fairly bullish about this though.
But then again, I'm British so I'm satisfied with just an inch!
Not a bad little bit of snowfall yesterday evening. Not much covering but certainly festive!
0 likes
-
therock1811
- Category 5
- Posts: 5163
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 2:15 pm
- Location: Kentucky
- Contact:
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Since the DC area watch is already up, I'll give up our AFD.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
SYNOPSIS...DECENT CONSENSUS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY (WITH COASTAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FRIDAY). WEAKER
WAVES ARE SHOWN TO DEEPEN A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH DURING
THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MEMBERS
INDICATE BUILDING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THE WEEKEND.
OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS
SHOWS AN EASTERN CONUS RIDGE/CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH/NORTHERN PACIFIC
RIDGE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO A CENTRAL-NORTHEAST CONUS
TROUGH/WESTERN CONUS RIDGE...AS A STRONG JET CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC WATERS. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 160-200KT
JET EXTENDS FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE DOMINATING SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...WITH A WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DUE TO
ENERGY SHEARED SOUTHWEST FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TROUGH AND
WAVES DROPPING SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1034MB ANTICYCLONE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO PUSH
NORTHWEST.
MODELS...THE 12Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z UKMET/EUROPEAN
WERE EXAMINED. IN GENERAL...THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. A WAVE
IS SHOWN TO TRAVERSE EAST FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY WITH COASTAL
SURFACE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND AND
BEYOND...MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...WITH A GENERAL IDEA THAT ONE
OR TWO TROUGHS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TRAVERSE
NORTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
ENSEMBLE DATA...00Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES INDICATE A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
DURING THE WORK WEEK (WITH GOOD AGREEMENT). MEMBERS THEN SHOW
REINFORCING WAVES DEEPENING A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE THIS WEEKEND (WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT). THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS THAT A THIRD TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MIDWEEK.
MEAN HIGHS FROM THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MOS BEGIN WITH MID 30S DURING
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RISING TO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND BEYOND. MEAN LOWS RISE FROM NEAR 20 DURING THE LATE
WEEK...INTO THE MID 20S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN POPS REMAIN BELOW
CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (WITH A LARGE
VARIABILITY NOTED FOR BOTH PERIODS).
FORECAST RATIONALE...MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY. FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC REMAIN IMPRESSIVE AND MAY
SUPPORT THE RETURN OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND CYCLOGENESIS OF A
COASTAL CYCLONE.
AS FAR AS A FEW DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THE 12Z GFS/NAM/CANADIAN
MODELS INDICATE .5-1.0" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. MEANWHILE...THE
GARCIA METHOD USING THE 12Z GFS INDICATES A GENERAL 6-10" POTENTIAL.
THE SPEED OF THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR HEAVIER
SNOWFALL. EXPECTING TO SEE A WARM NOSE OFF THE SURFACE PENETRATE OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET MIXING IN GIVEN
THE DEPTH OF THE COLD LOWER LAYER.
THE POSITIVE FACTORS FOR A WINTER STORM INCLUDE THE OBSERVED
BAROCLINICITY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH A
MAGNITUDE OF 200KTS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING BY ACARS. A
1040MB ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY RESIDES IN THE MIDWEST (WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC).
ALSO...THE GULF STREAM WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ANOMALOUSLY
WARM...WHILE THE COASTAL WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD...LEADING TO INCREASED AMBIENT BAROCLINICITY OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
COMPLICATED SYSTEM DUE TO THE TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE OCEAN
OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER LIFT
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...DEEP ENOUGH TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER AND PRODUCE HIGH
PRECIPITATION RATES AFTER SATURATION. NAM/GFS ALSO SUGGEST BANDING
IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...GIVEN MID TO
LOWER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING CSI (ALL
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER).
EXPERIMENTAL SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ROADWAY IMPACT GRAPHICS SUGGEST
ACCUMULATION ON ROAD SURFACES ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE HIGH SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED
INITIALLY...WHICH TEND OVERCOME RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ROADWAY ACCUMULATION. THE CURRENT TIMING
WOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
LITTLE TIME WAS SPENT BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE DUE TO THE UPCOMING
WINTER STORM. HOWEVER...APPEARS MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN IN THE
PATTERN EVOLUTION (WHICH IS TYPICAL AFTER AN ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM).
0 likes
-
Steve Carpenter
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 16
- Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 9:45 am
- Location: Asheville, North Carolina
This is for the North Carolina Mountains - even tough it comes out of Greenville, S.C.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THIS TIME
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...UPPER CONFLUENT PATTERN
IS KEEPING WEAKER SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE PLUME DIRECTED TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AND CIRRUS FIELD THICKENING OVER THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH EVOLUTION OF
ARCTIC HIGH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGH TO BEGIN WEDGING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z...AND AGEOSTROPHIC NORTHEAST FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MINIMUM TEMPS AROUND NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LLVL
CAA WILL BEGIN TO TAKE EFFECT. DEEP MOISTURE FROM DEVELOPING GULF
LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A WHILE TO REACH THE AREA AND DONT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING SOUTHERN MOISTURE FLUX TO
PROVIDE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND STRENGTHEN WEDGE SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SBK
THU AND THU NIGHT...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PRECIP. ACROSS
NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THU MAINLY DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NAM COLDER IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS PROBABLY MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT FED BY A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET CREATES A STRONG OMEGA FIELD
THAT TRVERSES THE FORECAST AREA THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THEREFORE...
CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT 100% FOR PRECIP.DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER....THERMAL
FIELDS STILL DIFIFCULT TO PIN DOWN. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CAD
(COLD AIR DAMMING) MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING
BASED ON STRENGTH OF ARCTIC HIGH TO THE N/NW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH WOULD CONSEQUENTLY KEEP OUR WET BULB ZERO AT
OR BELOW FREEZING LONGER. THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD A COLDER
SOLUTION. (I USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS
AND ADJUSTED MAV 3 HOURLY MOS TEMPS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
CAD BEST...AND CAME UP WITH PRECIP FIELDS THAT BEGIN AS A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX THU EXCEPT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED. DEVELOPING STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION PRECIP TO ALL RAIN S OF I-85. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/CAD SHOULD LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS TO BELOW
FREEZING BY 00Z AND BRIEFLY ACROSS THE GA/SC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
WARM NOSE ALOFT/WET BULBS NEAR ZERO NEAR SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX SC/GA MOUNTAINS WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN NC MOUNTAINS/WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS WHERE AROUND 1/4
INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR ICE ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES OF ALEXANDER/CATAWBA/CALDWELL/BURKE
MCDOWELL/AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCY/MADISON AND BUNCOMBE FOR THU AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45-50KT DEPICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
AROUND 3-4K FT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS. OFFICE
EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERNS IT IS DIFFICULT TO
GET WINDS AS HIGH AS MODELS SUGGEST EVEN AT ELEVATION...SO WILL NOT
AT THIS TIME ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND.
LG
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD BE MUCH MORE BENIGN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FAVOR A
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE
COOLER MET GUIDANCE N OF I-40 WHERE ICE MIGHT BE MELTING EARLY IN
THE DAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
RACING EASTWARD UP THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS...AND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS ON THE NAM. THIS WAVE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE...BUT EVEN IF IT ISNT...LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
PM
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MEAN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA WILL HOLD...MEANING
CONTINUED COOL WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE
OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD AIR MASS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR A NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
EVENT ALONG THE TN BORDER. SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...
MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND INTO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...
THAT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND VORT AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD ALSO
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
LIFTING OUT BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL ADD A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS.
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND
IN THE DIRECTION OF HPC/ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER ON HIGH TEMP MONDAY...RESULTING IN A DROP OF MORE THAN 5
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS INTO TUESDAY
A CATEGORY AS WELL.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM
FORMING EITHER NEAR THE COAST OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH MORE COLD AIR DAMMING.
AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ME WANT TO PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVELY...SO I THINK A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE BEST WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
IT HAS SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EST WED DEC 7 2005
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AT THIS TIME
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...UPPER CONFLUENT PATTERN
IS KEEPING WEAKER SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. LATEST
WATER VAPOR SHOWS IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE PLUME DIRECTED TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AND CIRRUS FIELD THICKENING OVER THE CWFA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH EVOLUTION OF
ARCTIC HIGH TOWARD THE EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGH TO BEGIN WEDGING EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z...AND AGEOSTROPHIC NORTHEAST FLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
MINIMUM TEMPS AROUND NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LLVL
CAA WILL BEGIN TO TAKE EFFECT. DEEP MOISTURE FROM DEVELOPING GULF
LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A WHILE TO REACH THE AREA AND DONT EXPECT LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WILL ANTICIPATE INCREASING SOUTHERN MOISTURE FLUX TO
PROVIDE EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND STRENGTHEN WEDGE SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SBK
THU AND THU NIGHT...
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING PRECIP. ACROSS
NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ON THU MAINLY DUE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NAM COLDER IN LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS PROBABLY MORE
REASONABLE CONSIDERING COLD AIR DAMMING EXPECTED. STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT FED BY A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET CREATES A STRONG OMEGA FIELD
THAT TRVERSES THE FORECAST AREA THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THEREFORE...
CONFIDENCE LEVEL AT 100% FOR PRECIP.DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER....THERMAL
FIELDS STILL DIFIFCULT TO PIN DOWN. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CAD
(COLD AIR DAMMING) MAY BE STRONGER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATING
BASED ON STRENGTH OF ARCTIC HIGH TO THE N/NW. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOWER DEWPOINTS WHICH WOULD CONSEQUENTLY KEEP OUR WET BULB ZERO AT
OR BELOW FREEZING LONGER. THEREFORE...WILL TREND TOWARD A COLDER
SOLUTION. (I USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR PARTIAL THICKNESS FIELDS
AND ADJUSTED MAV 3 HOURLY MOS TEMPS WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING
CAD BEST...AND CAME UP WITH PRECIP FIELDS THAT BEGIN AS A
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX THU EXCEPT FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN MOUNTAINS
WHERE COLD AIR GETS TRAPPED. DEVELOPING STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION PRECIP TO ALL RAIN S OF I-85. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING/CAD SHOULD LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS TO BELOW
FREEZING BY 00Z AND BRIEFLY ACROSS THE GA/SC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
WARM NOSE ALOFT/WET BULBS NEAR ZERO NEAR SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX SC/GA MOUNTAINS WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN NC MOUNTAINS/WESTERN NC FOOTHILLS WHERE AROUND 1/4
INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR ICE ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES OF ALEXANDER/CATAWBA/CALDWELL/BURKE
MCDOWELL/AVERY/MITCHELL/YANCY/MADISON AND BUNCOMBE FOR THU AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45-50KT DEPICTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
AROUND 3-4K FT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS MOUNTAINS. OFFICE
EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERNS IT IS DIFFICULT TO
GET WINDS AS HIGH AS MODELS SUGGEST EVEN AT ELEVATION...SO WILL NOT
AT THIS TIME ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND.
LG
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOULD BE MUCH MORE BENIGN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FAVOR A
GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...WHILE LEANING TOWARD THE
COOLER MET GUIDANCE N OF I-40 WHERE ICE MIGHT BE MELTING EARLY IN
THE DAY. ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
RACING EASTWARD UP THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS...AND ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS ON THE NAM. THIS WAVE MIGHT BE
OVERDONE...BUT EVEN IF IT ISNT...LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY THREAT FOR MORE THAN PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
PM
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MEAN UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA WILL HOLD...MEANING
CONTINUED COOL WINTER-LIKE WEATHER. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE
OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AXIS LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...WHICH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD AIR MASS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR A NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW
EVENT ALONG THE TN BORDER. SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT...
MOISTURE APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND INTO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...
THAT SNOW SHOWERS WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE
AREAS. THE PASSAGE OF A SECOND VORT AXIS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD ALSO
ENHANCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
LIFTING OUT BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL ADD A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS.
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND
IN THE DIRECTION OF HPC/ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER ON HIGH TEMP MONDAY...RESULTING IN A DROP OF MORE THAN 5
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS INTO TUESDAY
A CATEGORY AS WELL.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM
FORMING EITHER NEAR THE COAST OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH MORE COLD AIR DAMMING.
AT THIS STAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ME WANT TO PLAY
IT CONSERVATIVELY...SO I THINK A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE BEST WAY TO GO. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
IT HAS SOME INTERESTING POTENTIAL.
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HurricaneQueen
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1011
- Age: 79
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:36 pm
- Location: No. Naples, Fl (Vanderbilt Beach area)
Being from S. Florida I never thought I would be writing on this thread. I have been in NJ/Pa all week visiting friends and family (delayed because of Wilma) and have experienced two snow storms already with the biggest one due tomorrow night and Friday when I am scheduled for a 2 hour drive to spend the weekend with college roommate's. I haven't seen snow in 32 years, don't like to drive in it and certainly didn't plan on it this early in the season. When I left home, Epsilon was the big news.
Although I am having a terrific time visiting with my god babies, friends and family many things have had to be rearranged. Snow, snow go AWAY!!!!
Lynn
PS it is pretty if you don't have to travel in it.
Although I am having a terrific time visiting with my god babies, friends and family many things have had to be rearranged. Snow, snow go AWAY!!!!
Lynn
PS it is pretty if you don't have to travel in it.
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