MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 893...

VALID 052039Z - 052215Z



ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN FL AND
SRN GA.

AT 20Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
ROTATION WERE LOCATED OVER SRN GA IN CLINCH COUNTY...OVER LOWNDES
COUNTY GA AND OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF /60 W CTY/. THESE
DISCRETE STORMS ARE MOVING NEWD AT 25-30 KT AND ARE LOCATED JUST
EAST OF A LOW-TOPPED LEWP WHICH EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL GA TO
THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...JUST E OF TLH.

LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH THE LEWP SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY
MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MOISTURE/WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NWRN FL
INTO SRN GA. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

A FEW STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT
EAST OF WW 893 INTO SERN GA/NERN FL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL
AREAL COVERAGE AND LIMITED THREAT...A NEW WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS.. 12/05/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 893...
   
   VALID 052157Z - 052300Z
   
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
   VALID PART OF WW 893.
   
   LIGHTNING DATA/REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
   OFFSHORE OVER THE NERN GULF...WITH LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD
   TOWARD THE NWRN FL GULF COAST /TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES/.
   
   RADAR DATA SHOWED EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS OFFSHORE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...WHERE GREATEST CAPE WAS LOCATED.  INSTABILITY IS WEAKER
   INLAND ACROSS NRN FL.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND THREAT FOR
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...EXCEPT ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS WITH
   LAND FALLING STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 12/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29798360 30488292 31158197 30228201 29578267 29228317
   29248341

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NW FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 052316Z - 060115Z
   
   ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
   POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SEWD ALONG FL GULF COAST AND ADJACENT
   WATERS...FROM WW 893 TO N OF PIE.
   
   STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER NERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
   INLAND AND WEAKEN...AS THEY ENCOUNTER INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS THAT
   WILL STABILIZE BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT.  SLGT POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING WIND OR A TORNADO EXISTS OVER IMMEDIATE COASTAL
   AREAS...SE OF WW 893...FROM LEVY TO PASCO COUNTIES.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES -- ALREADY MARGINAL FROM TBW AREA SWD...ARE FCST TO WEAKEN
   WITH TIME ALONG ENTIRE W-CENTRAL/NW COAST OF FL AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   FLOW VEERS...SHRINKING 0-1 AND 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS.
   HOWEVER...THIS VEERING MAY ALLOW RELATIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIR NOW OFFSHORE TO ADVECT OVER COAST BEFORE PASSAGE OF PRIMARY
   CONVECTIVE BAND.  MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES
   200-500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BAND AND PASCO COUNTY
   THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.  LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS NOW EVIDENT INVOF NARROW
   OFFSHORE CORRIDOR OF BUOYANCY MAY SURVIVE TO REACH COASTLINE BEFORE
   THEY WEAKEN.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   29308317 29538282 29488249 29058245 28608236 28238250
   28188277 28278318 28508302 28668300 28778304 28818323
   28948336 29168344

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/SRN IA/NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 060026Z - 060530Z
   
   ...BRIEF HEAVY/CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
   
   LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED VORT
   MAX QUICKLY MOVING SEWD. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF MODERATE TO
   HEAVY SNOW RATES...WITH 20-40 MPH SFC WINDS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
   BY. THE SNOW HAS LASTED JUST AN HOUR OR TWO IN MOST PLACES...WITH
   BRIEF HEAVY/CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS. PCPN WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
   UPPER FORCING...AND SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO PROGRESSIVE...SIGNIFICANT
   SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
   FALLING SHARPLY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-15 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   38949272 39829856 41509867 42349744 42139450 41799217
   41269097 40259111 39279155

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 060129Z - 060730Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN MT WITH VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL
   WINDS CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...
   
   UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ALBERTA...ARRIVING AT THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY TUE MORNING. POTENT 120+KT JET STREAK
   WILL ALSO DIVE SWD ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   ADVECTION...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOW FOR THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   IN ADDITION...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT NOW FROM NEAR MSO TO SOUTH OF HLN
   WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OF 20-40
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
   IN AREAS WITH ONGOING MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX...
   
   44631266 47241587 48731480 48571063 47250880 45210851
   45020871

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2542
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 071124Z - 071630Z
   
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS N CNTRL TX
   THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   WRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX BY MID MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN
   TO MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN AR INTO N CNTRL TX NEAR FORT WORTH
   THEN SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
   TODAY...ALLOWING COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
   TX. POST FRONTAL WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER
   THE WRN PARTS OF N CNTRL TX. A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST
   OVER CNTRL TX INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 1-3 KM LAYER. THIS ASCENT IS
   ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION
   OVER THE SRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX. OWING TO THE RELATIVE DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND IN
   POST FRONTAL REGION. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE
   THE LAYER BELOW 3 KM AND MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
   FREEZING OVER THE WRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX. RUC SOUNDINGS VALID FOR
   EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 2 KM...AND THIS PROFILE
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WET BULB
   BELOW ZERO. THIS WARM LAYER IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE
   SUBZERO LAYER DEEPENS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE. A CHANGEOVER OR
   MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER
   TO SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NWRN PARTS OF N CNTRL TX BY LATE
   MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF VERTICAL MOTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE
   THE LAYERS BELOW -10C WHERE DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORED. BOTH ETA
   AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOPING
   BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM BY MID-DAY...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION.
   
   ..DIAL.. 12/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT...
   
   33689593 32529547 32059669 31509814 31139904 31819913
   33309755

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL TX...SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 071848Z - 080045Z
   
   ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS.  FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX...SWD ALONG I-35...
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOW OBSERVED OVER
   MOST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35.  SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ATOP
   THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS HAS AIDED RENEWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS
   PRECIPITATION/SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPANDS NWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO
   SRN OK.  THESE TRENDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDENT...DRYING AIRMASS DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS
   NWRN TX.
   
   LATEST TRENDS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
   THE GREATEST WINTER THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM JUST NORTH
   OF AUS...INTO THE DFW METROPLEX.  NWRN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX
   HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SLEET.  HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL PROFILES
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAT SHOULD
   GENERATE HOURLY FREEZING RAIN TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF .02
   IN...ESPECIALLY FROM DALLAS COUNTY TO HILL COUNTY.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN
   OK.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
   EVENING APPROACHES...BUT SNOW RATES SHOULD REMAIN WELL LESS THAN
   1IN/HR.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
   32239822 33669868 35799632 35189551 32889606 32069656
   30979711 30329772 30459838 31289825

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/FAR NE OK/WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 080121Z - 080515Z
   
   AREA OF LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS
   E KS/FAR NE OK INTO WRN MO THIS EVENING. RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR ON
   A LOCALIZED BASIS.
   
   DEEP ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY AMIDST
   STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CVA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AHEAD OF WRN NEB/WRN
   KS CLOSED LOW. LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS INTO THE KC METRO AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT
   CONCENTRATED BAND OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL ONGOING EARLY THIS
   EVENING FROM ALONG/EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE KC METRO AREA.
   00Z TOPEKA RAOB/21Z RUC BASED FCST SOUNDINGS FEATURE DEEPLY
   SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH
   RELATIVELY DEEP/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
   WILL PROMOTE SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 15:1 OR PERHAPS 20:1.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/08/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38659636 39249616 40299522 40309462 40079344 39179359
   37699438 36839476 36529501 36559615 38179647

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN IL...SERN WI...SRN LM...SWRN LOWER
   MI...MOST OF INDIANA...SMALL PORTION N-CENTRAL KY.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 141241Z - 141645Z
   
   WITHIN BROAD NNW-SSE PLUME OF LIGHT-MDT SNOW...POCKETS OF HEAVIER
   RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-LATE
   MORNING...AS BAND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  SNOW SHOULD
   TRANSITION QUICKLY TO RAIN AT...OR SHORTLY AFTER...PASSAGE OF SFC
   FREEZING LINE...ALSO FROM SW-NE.
   
   MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA AT 12Z INDICATED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MSP AREA SEWD ACROSS SWRN IL.  EXPECT THIS
   FEATURE TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AND EJECT ENEWD ACROSS WI/IL THROUGH
   REMAINDER MORNING...SUPPORTING PRECURSORY CORRIDOR OF MIDLEVEL DPVA
   AND STRONG/ELEVATED WAA PLUME IN LOW LEVELS.  RELATED ASCENT OF
   DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUBFREEZING AIR MASS...WITH PW AROUND .5-.75
   INCH BASED ON 12Z RAOBS AND INTERMEDIARY RUC SOUNDINGS...SHOULD
   SUPPORT EWD EXTENSION OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY SNOW NOW OBSERVED IN
   THIS REGIME.  STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FARTHER N ACROSS NRN WI AND
   NWRN LOWER MI SHOULD BE OFFSET BY WEAKER MOISTURE TO LIMIT HEAVY
   SNOW THREAT...WHILE WARMING WITH TIME WILL RESTRICT SNOW POTENTIAL
   FARTHER S IN KY.
   
   OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES QUICK TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN W OF
   SFC FREEZING LINE...A TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
   MORNING.  HOWEVER...TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS VERY
   BRIEF/LOCALIZED EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE INVOF 32 F
   ISOTHERM...AS WARMING ALOFT IN DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYERS KEEPS
   PRECIP PARTICLES SUPERCOOLED.  ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE
   SHORT-LIVED WITH RATES GENERALLY AROUND .10 INCH/HOUR OR LESS...AND
   REPLACED BY RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITHIN AN HOUR OR LESS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...
   
   38568734 39648867 41598911 42968777 42908661 41998603
   39028519 37838594

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2556
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0942 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141542Z - 141745Z
   
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. IF A SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS...A WW MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   AT THE SFC...A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS NWD FROM JUST OFF THE
   LOWER TX COAST INTO THE VICTORIA AREA. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   CURRENTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ABOVE A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
   LAYER EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION IS
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TX AND THE
   ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS
   MORNING...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING
   CONVECTION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY ROOT NEARER THE
   SURFACE ACROSS SE TX INTO FAR SWRN LA. INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS BECOME ROOTED IN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE WITH DAMAGING
   WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE TX...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141750Z - 141915Z



CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SE TX WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO SRN
LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF TORNADOES...HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW
MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60 F EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE HOUSTON AREA ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS IN PLACE ALONG THE TX COAST EXTENDING NWD
INTO WRN LA. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
TO SHIFT EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL LA.
THIS WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SRN LA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE STORM COVERAGE TO EXPAND EWD. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HAIL
AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 12/14/2005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 141824Z - 142300Z
   
   LIGHT/MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1 IN/HR.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURES CLOSED LOW
   OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. ONGOING SHIELD OF LIGHT/OCNLY MDT
   SNOW...OCCURRING ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...IS GRADUALLY
   TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS ERN MN AND WI ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA
   COUPLED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. SIMILAR TO 12Z
   DETERMINISTIC MODELS...00Z WRF-NMM4 AND 15Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS
   SUGGESTS RELATIVELY HIGHER SNOW RATES SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
   CNTRL WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...NAMELY FROM THE WAUSAU/WISCONSIN
   RAPIDS AREAS AND THE ADJACENT CNTRL WI I-39 CORRIDOR...E/NE TO THE
   GREEN BAY/IRON MOUNTAIN VICINITIES BY EARLY EVENING. IN THESE
   AREAS...SNOW RATES COULD LOCALLY APPROACH 1 IN/HR BETWEEN 21Z-02Z
   PER AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   45778960 45608817 44498810 43158876 43269072 44949196
   45749108

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST/FAR SERN TX INTO SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 894...
   
   VALID 141904Z - 142030Z
   
   CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW AS TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
   BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE JUST WEST
   OF THE HOU METRO AREA ATTM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING EWD AT AROUND
   35 KT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS GALVESTON BAY BY 20Z AND INTO FAR SWRN
   LA JUST AFTER 21Z IF IT MAINTAINS CURRENT FORWARD MOTION.
   
   VWP FROM HOU INDICATES EXTREME LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN
   EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2...ALONG WITH 60+ KT OF SFC-6 KM SHEAR.  PRIMARY
   CONCERN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SUBSEQUENT MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS.  MODIFIED HOURLY RUC
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HOU IS
   VERY NEARLY SURFACE-BASED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S
   AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.  IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENHANCE LIFTING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AND FURTHER INCREASE THE RISK OF INGESTING SURFACE-PARCELS.  WITH
   SUCH EXTREME SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF
   TORNADOES GIVEN THE NEAR SURFACE-BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS.  LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE ALSO
   EXPECTED.
   
   SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED INTO THE UPPER TX COAST
   THROUGH 21Z...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WEST OF ONGOING STORMS MAY
   OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   HOWEVER...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT INTO SWRN LA BETWEEN
   21-00Z AS LLJ DEVELOPS INTO SWRN LA.  AS DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO
   THE MID 60S AND LLJ DEVELOPS EWD...ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
   INTO SWRN LA PRIOR TO 20-21Z.
   
   ..EVANS.. 12/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
   
   28029674 29819661 30879353 30859186 30189144 29439139
   29169380 28019671

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN / S-CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 895...
   
   VALID 142356Z - 150130Z
   
   THROUGH 02Z...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS
   ERN HALF OF WW AREA...MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-10.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONSHORE PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR
   MCS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTION OBSERVED OFFSHORE SE OF LCH AS OF 2345Z.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT FROM VICINITY OF ESF EWD
   TO S OF JAN...WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FARTHER TO THE
   S...EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE ENE OF LCH SEWD TO N OF HUM.
   AIR MASS S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE LARGELY INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.
   
   GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THREAT OF AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT CAN
   BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG/S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT.
   CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS PRIMARY
   FACTOR LIMITING MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29359282 29929284 30519250 30669217 30669144 30079129
   29469139 29119153 29119231

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0705 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150105Z - 150230Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH QUASI-LINEAR MCS
   AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 05 OR 06Z.  AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   AS OF 0050Z...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDED FROM 25 W BTR TO 15 S
   7R4 AND THEN SWWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN OBSERVED EWD
   LINE MOVEMENT OF 30-35 KTS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
   DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH A COUPLE
   OF LEWP/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE S OF 7R4.
   MODIFICATION OF 00Z LIX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT HUM OBSERVATION / 70/63
   / YIELDS A SBCAPE OF AROUND 300 J/KG WITHIN AMBIENT KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 65 KTS.
   
   THROUGH 05 OR 06Z...THE GREATEST THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL
   EXIST ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION
   WITH CONVECTIVE LINE SW OF BTR TO NEAR BVE/ WHERE SOME SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.  THOUGH AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29189117 29919122 30229089 30029004 29558925 29068909
   28818975

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 150111Z - 150445Z
   
   OCNLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM FAR NE WI INTO CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
   BELOW 1 IN/HR.
   
   EAST OF STACKED UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE WRN MN/ERN DAKOTAS
   BORDER...LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW FOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
   WI INTO MI EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTS
   NEWD SPREAD OF ONGOING SNOWFALL FROM FAR NE WI INTO CNTRL UPPER MI
   THIS EVENING...ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA AND LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT. 00Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING FEATURES 75MB WELL-SATURATED
   DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ABOVE 700MB...FAVORABLE FOR OCNLY MDT SNOW
   COUPLED WITH AMPLE UVVS. SNOW RATES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1
   IN/HR...BUT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD EXCEED 1 IN/HR ACROSS THE SCNTRL
   PORTION OF UPPER MI...INCLUDING MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES WITH
   AID OF MOIST SELY TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MI.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
   
   46458604 46118584 45848634 45688661 45218705 44688750
   44628799 45188891 45518895 45888884 46328806

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0904 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 150304Z - 150430Z
   
   THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO APPEARS
   TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED
   WITH A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS LIKELY AIDING IN
   INTENSIFICATION OF MCS OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL MS INTO ERN LA OVER
   THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.  CLOSE INSPECTION OF LOCAL RADAR DATA
   SHOWS A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SE OF MCB MOVING NEWD AT
   AROUND 50 KTS. ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE LINE FROM S OF JAN TO THIS
   MESOLOW AND THEN SWD TO N OF HUM HAS ALSO INTENSIFIED PER
   REFLECTIVITY AND LIGHTNING DATA.  00Z LIX OBSERVED AND PROXIMITY RUC
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ELEVATED
   ABOVE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 100-400 J/KG.
   
   GIVEN DYNAMIC NATURE OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF
   PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INLAND ACROSS CNTRL MS OVERNIGHT...SOME CONCERN
   EXISTS THAT ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE.  AMBIENT SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG AND IF
   STORMS CAN BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD INCREASE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30299035 31329061 31749011 32178962 32038888 31408812
   30548825 29688903

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2564
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0944 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA / NWRN SC / WRN NC /  WRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 150344Z - 150945Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 0.10 TO 0.15 INCH IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN GA/NWRN SC AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN
   PORTIONS OF NC AND VA BY 15/12Z.
   
   00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE THE PRIMARY
   PROCESSES DRIVING LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD CURRENTLY OVER THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY.  ERN EDGE
   OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS NRN GA
   WHERE SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUB-FREEZING.  00Z FFC
   SOUNDING SHOWS THAT LITTLE SATURATION IS NEEDED AROUND 850 MB TO
   SATURATE VERTICAL PROFILE AND GIVEN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THIS HAS
   ALREADY OCCURRED.
   
   DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...PRIMARILY FROM THE TWO
   AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES...IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ENEWD
   OVERNIGHT...SUSTAINING ONGOING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION.  STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP SURFACE WEDGE FRONTAL ZONE IN IMMEDIATE LEE OF
   THE APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN A QUITE FAVORABLE VERTICAL THERMAL
   STRATIFICATION FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH A 3-4 C WARM NOSE DEVELOPING
   AROUND 850 MB.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   34368457 35818251 36778111 37558040 38097928 37167871
   35897945 34458154 33818322 33588420

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2565
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 896...
   
   VALID 150831Z - 151030Z
   
   WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL LINE MOVING EWD OVER
   WRN-MOST FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT MARINE ZONES OF FL/AL BORDER
   REGION.  ALSO...PRIND WW MAY BE REMOVED OVER REMAINING SERN AL
   COUNTIES.  RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS ACROSS SERN AL...WELL N OF MARINE
   FRONT IN GULF -- WILL NOT RECOVER ENOUGH TO ALLOW NEARLY SFC-BASED
   LIFTED PARCELS...BEFORE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BAND PASSES.
   
   SFC COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NRN PORTION MS/AL BORDER SSWWD
   ACROSS MSY AREA AND INTO NWRN GULF.  MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND PRECEDES
   COLD FRONT BY APPROXIMATELY 125 NM OVER GULF AND NNEWD INTO WRN-MOST
   FL PANHANDLE.  MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED NEAR BUOYS 42039 AND
   42020...50-70 NM OFFSHORE AND DRIFTING NWD.  BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER OFFSHORE WATERS OVER AND
   S OF MARINE FRONT.  TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
   DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME BECAUSE OF
   1. LOWER THETAE AND WEAKER BUOYANCY IN INFLOW LAYER INLAND AND
   2. DECREASING PROBABILITY THAT MARINE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY
   LAYER BUOYANCY WILL REACH LAND.
   
   INDEED...MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SBCAPE AND MLCAPE IS
   ENTIRELY OFFSHORE NOW. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
   ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT BUT BEHIND INITIAL SQUALL LINE.
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TOO MINIMAL TO
   MAINTAIN WW BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION. EXPECT RELATIVELY VEERED
   FLOW NEAR SFC AND ASSOCIATED REDUCTION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...COMBINED
   WITH REDUCED BUOYANCY IN POSTCONVECTIVE AIR MASS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   29878505 29708592 29748733 29918733 31298709 31688534
   31318501 30108503

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2566
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151122Z - 151315Z
   
   NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WRN/CENTRAL FL
   PANHANDLE.
   
   ORIGINAL MCS COLLAPSED WHILE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR
   MASS...EXCEPT FOR SEVERAL CELLS ON ITS SRN END WHICH BROKE AWAY AND
   REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WALTON/BAY
   COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED S OF AL
   COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE COAST...INVOF COMBINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   AND MARINE/WARM FRONT...AND ALONG NNE-SSW ORIENTED COLD FRONTAL BAND
   EXTENDING SEAWARD FROM MOB BAY.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES MARINE/WARM FRONT NOW ABOUT 40 NM OFFSHORE AL
   COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...DRIFTING N.  FRONT THEN EXTENDS SEWD
   INVOF BUOY 42036 IN NERN GULF. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLY SFC
   FLOW COMPONENT MAY RESULT IN THIS FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED NEAR-SFC
   BASED BUOYANCY -- REACHING COAST DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS.  AIR MASS S
   OF FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED INVOF MARINE FRONT.
   ALONG THAT BOUNDARY...ELY FLOW COMPONENT -- STRENGTHENED AROUND S
   RIM OF PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS OUTFLOW -- COMBINES
   WITH 850 MB WINDS THAT VEERED FOLLOWING INITIAL MCS TO YIELD
   ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. MODIFIED VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW
   300-600 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER.  ACCORDINGLY...SRM DATA INDICATES
   ROTATION IN SOME CELLS NEAR MARINE FRONT...AND ANY SFC-BASED STORM
   NEAR COAST WILL BEAR THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO MAY
   REACH SFC IN ANY LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING COLD
   FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   29328472 29468586 29748733 29918733 30608702 30448575
   30178487 29948447