MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SW NEB
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 271937Z - 272330Z
   
   A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST
   ACROSS WRN KS/SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 IN/HR SNOW RATES
   DEVELOPING AMIDST BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS.
   
   STRONG CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH DEEPENING 985 MB SFC LOW AT 19Z. ON NW PERIPHERY OF
   CYCLONE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS /600-800 MB/ IN PROXIMITY OF WEAK
   POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /INCLUDING PLENTIFUL CG LIGHTNING CNTRL KS
   INTO SCNTRL NEB/ WILL LEAD TO EWD TRANSITION OF WELL ORGANIZED
   DEFORMATION SNOW BAND ACROSS SW NEB/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   HEAVY SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE AKRON CO/GOODLAND KS
   AREAS AS OF 18Z-19Z. SIMILAR TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...RUC PRECIP
   TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGESTS A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   OCCUR FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF NW KS/SW NEB THIS
   AFTERNOON. ONSET OF MDT/HEAVY SNOW APPEARS PROBABLE IN LOCALES
   ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...INCLUDING THE MCCOOK
   NEB/HILL CITY KS AREAS.
   
   IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SNOW RATES...RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER AND
   GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA ALREADY DEPICTING N/NE WINDS OF 50 KTS
   JUST OFF THE SURFACE /750M-2 KM LAYER/...A TREND THE 18Z RUC
   SUGGESTS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 60+ KTS BY 00Z. THESE INCREASINGLY
   STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
   EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   38770208 39260221 40120222 40790189 41210100 41080029
   40519984 39799972 38979961 38649990 38320038 38150086
   38380174

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/FAR SE ND
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 272023Z - 280100Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD/FAR SE ND THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND
   0.05-0.10 IN/HR LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS.
   
   STEADY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING NWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
   ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING KS CYCLONE. COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS
   IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ERN SD AND SE ND WEST OF STATIONARY
   FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH 18Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
   MAINTENENCE OF ELEVATED MELTING LAYER /AROUND 850 MB/ INTO THIS
   EVENING. ACCORDINGLY...FREEZING RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
   THE ABERDEEN/HURON/MITCHELL SD AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
   TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...18Z RUC/09Z SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST
   PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH APPRECIABLE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
   THROUGH EARLY EVENING APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
   I-29...AND NORTH OF I-90 IN SD.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/27/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   44109964 44909953 45649887 46059832 46249768 46249722
   46169676 45669653 45019682 44499719 43869762 43589863
   43629919

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS INTO CNTRL NEB AND SCNTRL/SE SD
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 280103Z - 280500Z
   
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS NW KS/WCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD
   THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR AMIDST VERY
   STRONG N/NW WINDS. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   FROM NCNTRL NEB INTO SE SD.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBJECTIVE DIAGNOSTICS DEPICT INTENSE CNTRL PLAINS
   LOW BECOMING CLOSED/VERTICALLY STACKED THIS EVENING...WITH 984 MB
   SFC REFLECTION ACROSS CNTRL KS AT 01Z. AS THIS CYCLONE FURTHER
   DEEPENS THIS EVENING...SNOW BAND WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZED
   ACROSS NW KS/CNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING /600-800 MB/ ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. PER 21Z
   RUC/18Z NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE
   DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR
   THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONSENSUS OF FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS NCNTRL NEB
   INTO SE SD...AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD SHALLOW
   SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   NORTH PLATTE/GOODLAND WSR-88D VAD DATA IN CONJUNCTION RED WILLOW NEB
   PROFILER DATA SAMPLING 50-60 KT N/NW WINDS IN 0.5-2.0 KM LAYER EARLY
   THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THIS BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
   /HIGHLIGHTED BY 50+ KT SFC GUSTS AT GOODLAND/. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THESE VERY STRONG WINDS EARLY
   THIS EVENING...WITH CORRIDOR OF N/NW 850MB WINDS OF 60-65 KTS ACROSS
   WCNTRL NEB/NW KS COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST SNOW RATES.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...
   
   43919983 43279745 41669757 39729935 39119977 39040064
   39310123 39960174 41400161 43190134 43780090

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND/NW MN
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
   
   VALID 280152Z - 280615Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 0.05-0.10 HOURLY LIQUID
   EQUIVALENTS AND SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...WILL CONTINUE INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT FROM ERN SD INTO SE ND/NW MN...ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG
   A CORRIDOR FROM HURON SD TO FARGO ND/DETROIT LAKES MN.
   
   LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO MUCH OF MN/ERN DAKOTAS WILL
   CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PERIPHERY OF DEEP CNTRL PLAINS CYCLONE. WHERE
   THIS MOIST AXIS INTERCEPTS A SUFFICIENTLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER
   ALONG/WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH...FREEZING RAIN HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
   MUCH OF ECNTRL/NE SD SINCE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS/
   POWER OUTAGES REPORTED. A SIMILAR TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ACROSS SE ND
   INTO FAR WCNTRL MN/NW MN. IN THIS CORRIDOR...00Z RUC SOUNDINGS
   DEPICT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AN ELEVATED 850 MB WARM/MELTING LAYER
   OVERSPREADING THE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SCENARIO IS
   FURTHER AFFIRMED BY LATEST 21Z SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/28/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48399503 48099406 46599571 45499615 44919627 44359680
   43879737 43819861 44029921 44749920 45689875 46649793

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NE/ERN SD/MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/FREEZING RAIN

VALID 281219Z - 281745Z



DEEP...CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM SERN NE TO WRN IA BY 18 UTC.
SYSTEM IS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH SURFACE LOW PREDICTED TO
REACH SRN MN BORDER BY 18 UTC...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING LARGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER NCNTRL IA.

10 UTC RUC FORECAST SHOWS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/TROWAL AXIS ON THE 297K
SURFACE TO SHARPEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SNOW RATES EXCEED
1"/HOUR. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD SHIFT FROM CNTRL SD/CNTRL NE INTO ERN
SECTIONS OF THESE STATES AS NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 30 TO 40 MPH
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

THE REPOSITIONING OF CYCLONE ALSO RESULTS IN COOLING OF LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS IN CNTRL AND NRN MN. EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE STEADILY DURING THE MORNING REACHING 32F IN NCNTRL MN BY 13
UTC AND BY 16 UTC IN SCNTRL MN...AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. STILL A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF WARM AIR CENTERED AROUND
850 MB LEVEL WITH LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE BEGINNING
AS FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG
BAROCLINIC TROUGH AXIS WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN
BANDED MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05" TO
0.10" PER HOUR POSSIBLE THROUGH 18 UTC.

SEE THE LATEST HPC FORECASTS FOR PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND INFORMATION EXTENDING BEYOND 18 UTC.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 281251Z - 281745Z



SNOW RATES AT OR ABOVE 1" PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 15 AND 18
UTC AS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLEARLY VISIBLE ON IR IMAGERY MOVES
ONSHORE THIS MORNING. JET STREAK AROUND 65 KTS EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW REACHES THE NRN CA COAST AROUND 17 UTC PER 11
UTC RUC FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW LAYER OF WARM AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH 12 UTC TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 32F AT YREKA
TO 42F AT REDDING. DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS WITH UPWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL AID THE SNOWFALL RATES.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 2500 FEET MSL AND LOWER TO
ABOUT 2000 FEET MSL BY 18 UTC AS SLIGHT WET BULB COOLING OCCURS AND
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY INCREASES. ISOLATED HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS
COULD EXPERIENCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN OR SNOW. THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE BY 18 UTC
WILL BE SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ABOVE 2000 FEET MSL.

..BRIGHT.. 11/28/2005


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NEB/ERN SD/SE ND INTO WRN/NRN MN

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 281859Z - 290000Z



HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM NE NEB/ERN SD INTO SE ND AND PORTIONS OF WCNTRL MN.
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND ICE
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN.

ON N/NW PERIPHERY OF OCCLUDING IA CYCLONE /983 MB AT 18Z/...SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL INTENSIFY/SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN...ORIENTED PARALLEL TO
650MB-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT TERMINUS OF TROWAL PER 12Z
MODEL DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS. AMPLE UVVS THROUGH FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC LAYER WILL PROMOTE SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS SNOWFALL...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER CONDITIONS...WITH 50-70 KT WINDS COMMON IN
THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D VAD DATA.

ACROSS WCNTRL/NCNTRL MN...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS
FROM INL/ABR...15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER. AFFIRMED BY 09Z SREF
PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS...THIS SUGGESTS POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/NCNTRL
MN...INCLUDING A DETROIT LAKES-BEMIDJI-INTERNATIONAL FALLS
CORRIDOR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE ICE ACCUMULATION.

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0710 PM CST MON NOV 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/SE ND AND WRN/NRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 290110Z - 290545Z
   
   BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM ERN SD/SE ND INTO NW MN
   THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR OR GREATER WILL BE MOST
   PROLONGED THROUGH 06Z ACROSS SE ND INTO PORTIONS OF NW/NCNTRL
   MN...WHILE SNOW RATES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MID EVENING
   ACROSS ERN SD.
   
   VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER NRN IA/SRN MN CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE
   EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 985 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER SE MN AT 01Z.
   ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...DEFORMATION AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
   WILL REMAIN FOCUSED THIS EVENING BETWEEN MID LEVEL /600-800 MB/
   FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT AND TROWAL /TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT/
   AIRSTREAM ARCING ACROSS NRN MN/FAR ERN DAKOTAS PER LATEST MODEL
   DIAGNOSTICS/CROSS SECTIONS.
   
   MAINTENENCE OF EXISTING RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW
   ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN INTO ERN SD APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING ON THE SRN EXTENT
   ACROSS ERN SD. SIMILAR TO 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB...RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
   SE ND INTO NW/NCNTRL MN FEATURE DEEPLY SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES THIS EVENING...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE
   DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. SNOW RATES OF 1 IN/HR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
   WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...WITH ERN
   DAKOTAS WSR-88D VAD DATA/00Z ABERDEEN RAOB SAMPLING 50-70 KT WINDS
   IN THE LOWEST FEW KM.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/29/2005
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...
   AND 18-19 UTC FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   48859460 48109224 46819409 45499604 43689654 43529717
   43809812 44759887 46509808 48319615

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CST SUN DEC 04 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 050035Z - 050630Z
   
   ...SNOW RATES WILL BE AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN MOST INTENSE
   PORTIONS OF LAKE EFFECT BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO...
   
   LOCAL RADAR LOOPS INDICATE HEAVY SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS OSWEGO AND
   LEWIS COUNTIES IN NRN NY SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 00Z SOUNDING FROM
   BUFFALO INDICATES A FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE WITH
   WESTERLIES INCREASING TO AROUND 40-45 KT NEAR 700MB. WINDS WITHIN
   THE 850-700MB LAYER WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SINGLE BUT INTENSE BAND OF
   HEAVY SNOW. FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS
   THE BAND MAY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH...BUT
   BASICALLY WILL REMAIN OVER OSWEGO/SRN LEWIS COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY
   NRN ONEIDA. THE RUC AND 4KM WRF/NMM BOTH HINT THAT HEAVY SNOW BANDS
   WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   43157632 43287745 43837723 44317513 44087418 42987451
   42927487

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON DEC 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL VA AND FAR SE WV

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 051255Z - 051700Z



SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE FAR SE WV/WRN VA APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL VA PIEDMONT. IN SRN
VA...INITIAL RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW/SLEET BY 15Z-18Z.

12Z SURFACE/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS REGION...WITH BROAD MOISTURE/ASCENT
PLUME SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN VA AS LOW LEVEL CYCLONE GRADUALLY
EVOLVES ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER. ALTHOUGH 35-40F SFC TEMPS ARE COMMON
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL VA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SATURATION/TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC GRADIENT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SHOULD COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY QUICK TRANSITION TO
WET SNOW. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL SATURATION/LOW
LEVEL COOLING OBSERVED BETWEEN 00Z-12Z ROANOKE RAOBS...AS WELL AS
SREF PRECIP-TYPE CONSENSUS AND 09Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. IN SRN
VA...AFTER INITIAL BOUT OF RAIN...AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SLEET/SNOW SHOULD MIX IN BY MID/LATE MORNING ALONG A
MARION-WYTHEVILLE-FARMVILLE-RICHMOND CORRIDOR.

..GUYER.. 12/05/2005

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA/SE WV/NE MD AND THE ERN SHORE/DE/SRN NJ

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW/WINTER PCPN TRENDS

VALID 051854Z - 060100Z



...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
VA/WV...WITH SNOW RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO NRN VA AND MD THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS OK/AR. THIS
IMPULSE WILL TRACK INTO THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS LATER
TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS NOW ANALYZED NEAR ATHENS GA...WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT. ETA HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLNS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER TO
HATTERAS...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS SETUP...BAND OF
HEAVIEST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CNTRL INTO NE VA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO SRN NJ/NE MD/DE
BY EARLY EVENING.

LATEST LOCAL/COMPOSITE RADAR ANIMATIONS SHOW A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXTENDING FROM BLF/HSP/FVX/RIC. CLOSER TO THE
VA/NC BORDER...TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. 17Z SPECIAL SOUNDINGS
FROM DULLES AND NE OF BWI INDICATE THAT WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THERE IS STILL SOME DRY AIR
THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS AFTER
21-22Z...ACROSS THE DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREAS...AND CLOSER TO 06/00Z
TOWARD DOV/PHL.

SUSTAINED MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN THE 700-850MB MAY ALLOW SNOW
TO CHANGE TO A SLEET/SNOW MIX LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL VA CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SNOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NRN
VA/SE WV/MD BECOME NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH STRONG ASCENT IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC ZONE BY LATE AFTN/EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW RATES INTO THE EVENING.

..TAYLOR.. 12/05/2005

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/SRN IA/NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
   
   VALID 060026Z - 060530Z
   
   ...BRIEF HEAVY/CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
   
   LATE AFTN WATER VAPOR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED VORT
   MAX QUICKLY MOVING SEWD. THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF MODERATE TO
   HEAVY SNOW RATES...WITH 20-40 MPH SFC WINDS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
   BY. THE SNOW HAS LASTED JUST AN HOUR OR TWO IN MOST PLACES...WITH
   BRIEF HEAVY/CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS. PCPN WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO
   UPPER FORCING...AND SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO PROGRESSIVE...SIGNIFICANT
   SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE
   FALLING SHARPLY...ON THE ORDER OF 12-15 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
   
   38949272 39829856 41509867 42349744 42139450 41799217
   41269097 40259111 39279155

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CST MON DEC 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
   
   VALID 060129Z - 060730Z
   
   ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN MT WITH VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL
   WINDS CAUSING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...
   
   UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ALBERTA...ARRIVING AT THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY EARLY TUE MORNING. POTENT 120+KT JET STREAK
   WILL ALSO DIVE SWD ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   ADVECTION...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOW FOR THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   IN ADDITION...STRONG ARCTIC FRONT NOW FROM NEAR MSO TO SOUTH OF HLN
   WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONG WINDS OF 20-40
   MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
   IN AREAS WITH ONGOING MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 12/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX...
   
   44631266 47241587 48731480 48571063 47250880 45210851
   45020871

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CST WED DEC 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 071124Z - 071630Z



PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS N CNTRL TX
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX BY MID MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN
TO MIX WITH SLEET OR SNOW BY LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN AR INTO N CNTRL TX NEAR FORT WORTH
THEN SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
TODAY...ALLOWING COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE BUILDING INTO
TX. POST FRONTAL WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING OVER
THE WRN PARTS OF N CNTRL TX. A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST
OVER CNTRL TX INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE 1-3 KM LAYER. THIS ASCENT IS
ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX. OWING TO THE RELATIVE DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND IN
POST FRONTAL REGION. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE
THE LAYER BELOW 3 KM AND MAINTAIN SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE WRN HALF OF N CNTRL TX. RUC SOUNDINGS VALID FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WARM LAYER AROUND 2 KM...AND THIS PROFILE
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WET BULB
BELOW ZERO. THIS WARM LAYER IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE
SUBZERO LAYER DEEPENS WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE. A CHANGEOVER OR
MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW WILL THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE. THE CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER NWRN PARTS OF N CNTRL TX BY LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF VERTICAL MOTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE
THE LAYERS BELOW -10C WHERE DENDRITIC GROWTH IS FAVORED. BOTH ETA
AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM BY MID-DAY...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION.

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL TX...SRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 071848Z - 080045Z
   
   ...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS.  FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX...SWD ALONG I-35...
   
   STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOW OBSERVED OVER
   MOST OF THE ESCARPMENT WEST OF I-35.  SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ATOP
   THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS HAS AIDED RENEWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS
   PRECIPITATION/SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPANDS NWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO
   SRN OK.  THESE TRENDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
   HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDENT...DRYING AIRMASS DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS
   NWRN TX.
   
   LATEST TRENDS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
   THE GREATEST WINTER THREAT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM JUST NORTH
   OF AUS...INTO THE DFW METROPLEX.  NWRN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX
   HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SLEET.  HOWEVER DOWNSTREAM...VERTICAL PROFILES
   REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAT SHOULD
   GENERATE HOURLY FREEZING RAIN TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF .02
   IN...ESPECIALLY FROM DALLAS COUNTY TO HILL COUNTY.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...LIGHT SNOW IS DEVELOPING/SPREADING NWD ACROSS SRN
   OK.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
   EVENING APPROACHES...BUT SNOW RATES SHOULD REMAIN WELL LESS THAN
   1IN/HR.
   
   ..DARROW.. 12/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
   32239822 33669868 35799632 35189551 32889606 32069656
   30979711 30329772 30459838 31289825

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/FAR NE OK/WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 080121Z - 080515Z
   
   AREA OF LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD ACROSS
   E KS/FAR NE OK INTO WRN MO THIS EVENING. RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR ON
   A LOCALIZED BASIS.
   
   DEEP ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY AMIDST
   STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CVA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME AHEAD OF WRN NEB/WRN
   KS CLOSED LOW. LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN KS INTO THE KC METRO AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT
   CONCENTRATED BAND OF RELATIVELY HEAVIER SNOWFALL ONGOING EARLY THIS
   EVENING FROM ALONG/EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE KC METRO AREA.
   00Z TOPEKA RAOB/21Z RUC BASED FCST SOUNDINGS FEATURE DEEPLY
   SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...WITH AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH
   RELATIVELY DEEP/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS
   WILL PROMOTE SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 15:1 OR PERHAPS 20:1.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/08/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   38659636 39249616 40299522 40309462 40079344 39179359
   37699438 36839476 36529501 36559615 38179647

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST FRI DEC 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CT...CENTRAL/ERN MA...RI...SRN/ERN
NH...SRN MAINE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 091258Z - 091730Z



HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT/SPREAD EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE FORENOON HOURS. RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD BE
COMMON...WITH LOCAL 2-3 INCH/HOUR CONVECTIVE SNOW BURSTS EMBEDDED IN
PRIMARY PRECIP PLUME.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COASTAL/MARINE FRONT FROM W-CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND ENEWD TO VICINITY HYA AND NEWD INTO BAY OF FUNDY...WITHIN
LESS THAN 10 NM S OF FREEZING LINE. EXPECT FRONT TO DRIFT SLOWLY
NWD ACROSS COASTAL SERN MA AND CAPE COD AREAS. WAA ATOP SHALLOW
FRONTAL LAYER JUST N OF SFC FRONT MAY MELT PRECIP SUFFICIENTLY TO
YIELD NARROW/BRIEF CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN FROM RI EWD ACROSS PYM
AREA AND PORTIONS CAPE COD...WITH RATES REACHING TO NEAR .10
INCH/HOUR...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN. INITIAL LIGHT-MODERATE
SNOW...CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW THEN MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN...IS
EXPECTED IN IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE OVER CENTRAL/ERN MAINE COAST AND
ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AMBIENT PRECIP SHIELD -- MOST INTENSE AT 12Z FROM SRN VT SWWD ACROSS
NYC AREA TO DELMARVA REGION -- IS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE LOW LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ELEVATED ATOP VERY COLD/STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS PRECIP PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO CONTAIN
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD OVER MORE OF CENTRAL/ERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AS FAR N AS N-CENTRAL
NH...W-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL MAINE...AND LIKELY FROM ERN MA ACROSS
SRN NH AND INLAND DOWN-EAST MAINE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EVAPORATIVE/SUBLIMATIVE COOLING OF INITIALLY DRY LOW-MIDLEVEL
PROFILE WILL OFFSET WAA ENOUGH TO KEEP DEEP-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SNOW. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT ELEVATED/SLY LLJ WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
PRECIP EFFICIENCY.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN IL...SERN WI...SRN LM...SWRN LOWER
MI...MOST OF INDIANA...SMALL PORTION N-CENTRAL KY.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 141241Z - 141645Z



WITHIN BROAD NNW-SSE PLUME OF LIGHT-MDT SNOW...POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-LATE
MORNING...AS BAND SHIFTS EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. SNOW SHOULD
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO RAIN AT...OR SHORTLY AFTER...PASSAGE OF SFC
FREEZING LINE...ALSO FROM SW-NE.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER DATA AT 12Z INDICATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MSP AREA SEWD ACROSS SWRN IL. EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AND EJECT ENEWD ACROSS WI/IL THROUGH
REMAINDER MORNING...SUPPORTING PRECURSORY CORRIDOR OF MIDLEVEL DPVA
AND STRONG/ELEVATED WAA PLUME IN LOW LEVELS. RELATED ASCENT OF
DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUBFREEZING AIR MASS...WITH PW AROUND .5-.75
INCH BASED ON 12Z RAOBS AND INTERMEDIARY RUC SOUNDINGS...SHOULD
SUPPORT EWD EXTENSION OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY SNOW NOW OBSERVED IN
THIS REGIME. STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FARTHER N ACROSS NRN WI AND
NWRN LOWER MI SHOULD BE OFFSET BY WEAKER MOISTURE TO LIMIT HEAVY
SNOW THREAT...WHILE WARMING WITH TIME WILL RESTRICT SNOW POTENTIAL
FARTHER S IN KY.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES QUICK TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN W OF
SFC FREEZING LINE...A TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
MORNING. HOWEVER...TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS VERY
BRIEF/LOCALIZED EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE INVOF 32 F
ISOTHERM...AS WARMING ALOFT IN DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYERS KEEPS
PRECIP PARTICLES SUPERCOOLED. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH RATES GENERALLY AROUND .10 INCH/HOUR OR LESS...AND
REPLACED BY RAIN AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION WITHIN AN HOUR OR LESS.

[CaptinCrunch]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 141824Z - 142300Z



LIGHT/MDT SNOW WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1 IN/HR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/12Z UPPER AIR DIAGNOSTICS FEATURES CLOSED LOW
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. ONGOING SHIELD OF LIGHT/OCNLY MDT
SNOW...OCCURRING ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT...IS GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS ERN MN AND WI ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA
COUPLED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. SIMILAR TO 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...00Z WRF-NMM4 AND 15Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS RELATIVELY HIGHER SNOW RATES SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS
CNTRL WI BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...NAMELY FROM THE WAUSAU/WISCONSIN
RAPIDS AREAS AND THE ADJACENT CNTRL WI I-39 CORRIDOR...E/NE TO THE
GREEN BAY/IRON MOUNTAIN VICINITIES BY EARLY EVENING. IN THESE
AREAS...SNOW RATES COULD LOCALLY APPROACH 1 IN/HR BETWEEN 21Z-02Z
PER AMPLE UVVS COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.

..GUYER.. 12/14/2005

[TexasStooge]

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE WI AND PORTIONS OF UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION
   
   VALID 150111Z - 150445Z
   
   OCNLY MODERATE SNOW WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM FAR NE WI INTO CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING. SNOW RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
   BELOW 1 IN/HR.
   
   EAST OF STACKED UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED ALONG THE WRN MN/ERN DAKOTAS
   BORDER...LIGHT/OCNLY MDT SNOW FOCUSED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
   WI INTO MI EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTS
   NEWD SPREAD OF ONGOING SNOWFALL FROM FAR NE WI INTO CNTRL UPPER MI
   THIS EVENING...ATTRIBUTABLE TO DPVA AND LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT. 00Z GREEN BAY SOUNDING FEATURES 75MB WELL-SATURATED
   DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER ABOVE 700MB...FAVORABLE FOR OCNLY MDT SNOW
   COUPLED WITH AMPLE UVVS. SNOW RATES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 1
   IN/HR...BUT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD EXCEED 1 IN/HR ACROSS THE SCNTRL
   PORTION OF UPPER MI...INCLUDING MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES WITH
   AID OF MOIST SELY TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE MI.
   
   ..GUYER.. 12/15/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
   
   46458604 46118584 45848634 45688661 45218705 44688750
   44628799 45188891 45518895 45888884 46328806