#298 Postby jeff » Thu Dec 08, 2005 4:30 pm
It can never be easy.
Main concerns tonight are temps. and now chances for precip. along the coast and around Matagorda Bay. Who would think after a record breaking snow for deep S TX last year they would have an icing threat 1 year later and 2 weeks earlier?
Mexican short wave very well defined on water vapor images is moving NE toward SW TX currently. Radar echoes are increasing as far north as Laredo this afternoon. Given the cold arctic air mass in place it appears a winter weather event (icing and sleet) is possible tonight across deep south TX into the coastal bend and our SW counties. Tough call on how far north the precip. will make it as very low dewpoints and most of the moisture being in the mid levels should result in almost all of the stuff evaporating before it reaches the ground. My main concern is if the thing ejects further north and precip. does break out and then we have a big mess and a lot of surprised folks Friday morning.
For now will only go with freezing rain for Jackson and Matagorda counties although profiles favor sleet and snow. Little to no accumulation is expected so no advisories are needed, however to say the least it needs close watch.
Temperatures:
We should see partly cloudy skies early then increasing clouds around 1000pm as Mexican short wave approaches. Temp. forecast is a bigger headache as winds should stay between the 5-10mph range and sky conditions will be changing. Guidance is very low, but does not appears to be factoring in the increasing clouds. Ice across our northern and western areas along with forecasted lows in the low teens and single digits over N TX may mitigate the cloud factor. Will go a couple degrees above guidance. Fact is most everyone will freeze and for an extended period of time.
Point Forecast lows for Friday AM:
IAH: 27
Conroe: 24
Spring: 26
Tomball: 25
Cypress: 25
Katy: 26
Sugarland: 26
Hobby: 29
Galveston: 34
Bay City: 28
Wharton: 27
College Station: 22
Brenham: 24
Huntsville: 20
Humble: 27
League City: 30
Pearland: 28
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