Snow for Texas

[vbhoutex]

It will be very interesting to watch the weather here over the next 24 hours. If this system wets up there will be many surprised folks in the am in SE TX!!!!

[jasons2k]

We had school today. Double plus uncool.

Most of the ice glaze is melting away in the sunlight, even though it's below freezing out.

The correct term is sublimation

[jasons2k]

Few quick questions:

1) - Hey Jeff - do you work for the NWS? Just curious - your discussions here (and your Rita forecasts) are very similiar to NWS HGX. If you are, you guys do a great job!

2) There is talk in your discussion (and the NWS) that most of the precip. (if any) will evaporate due to dry air in the low levels. I'm curious what this is referencing - the surface temperature/dewpoint spread is not very great and surface RH values are fairly high. Where is this dry air located? Thanks.

[southerngale]

why is it south texas gets more snow than say except the panhandle when other areas are farther north

Why is it South Texas has gotten significant snow(see Christmas 2004) and MS/AL/GA(at a HIGHER latitude) haven't gotten a flake? It's beyond annoying...

Well, I got a few flakes last Christmas, but nothing compared to what they got. My biggest snowball was dime-sized and I worked hard to get it! lol

I'm glad they got it...what a wonderful treat for areas so far south, especially at Christmas. I just wish it would have happened here too, but I was still happy to see some flakes on Christmas Eve.

[f5]

i see some pink down in south texas could that be a problem?

[Brent]

No one is mentioning(other NWS offices) the stuff in South Texas... probably nothing. Air will be dry behind the front and the clouds will clear so I wouldn't expect anything.

[Extremeweatherguy]

High today has only been near 34 at my house in NW Houston. If we go clear tonight...I would not be surprised to wake up as low as 20-22...but if not, then 23-27 still looks likely. After a 5-7 hr. period of freezing temps. early today, I would expect a 7-15 hr. freeze tonight (in NW Houston). My backyard palms are beginning to get a little damage, and I am expecting more overnight. Virtually every banana tree across the area is dead this afternoon (but they come back to life in the spring). I am very interested in that area of light precip. in south Texas. Any northward jump in the precip. could bring in a wintry mix to Houston...it is not forecast now, but it can not be ruled out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

light band of wintry mix is setting up just north of Victoria and heading north. We could see this reach Houston by about 11:30pm. Would not be surprised to see a sleet pellet, snow flurry or some freezing mist as it passes. Temps. are 30-31 in my backyard right now with overcast skies and wind. May see a few light bands set up tonight with the chance of a little light wintry weather with each one. No accumulations are expected though and all precipitation should be light. Lows tonight should reach the middle 20s despite the clouds....IF they clear; then we could get a little closer to 19-21 by sunrise. Cold..Cold..Cold...

[corpusbreeze]

Looks slim to none for the Corpus area to get snow or even frozen precip. tonight. Oh well I hear a even bigger artic front is due in 10 to 12 days from now. Maybe we can pull off two years in a row for a big snow here. It seems we are in a pattern .

[ETXHAMXYL]

I keep hearing the possiblity of another big front around Christmas Eve...Boy I'd love to have some snow on my B-day. Is it suppose to be another Artic type event?
Is JB making any noise about it yet? Ive read a few rumors about this upcoming outbreak on other sites and even the NWS Climate Outlook shows us below normal temps and above on Prec. for the 8-14 days out. I know a lot can change with each day, but most of this last blast was predicted by many on this board back to the weekend of Thanksgiving or even days before that...I am getting excited already... Bring me some snow so I can make a snow angel.

[WhiteShirt]

Looks slim to none for the Corpus area to get snow or even frozen precip. tonight. Oh well I hear a even bigger artic front is due in 10 to 12 days from now. Maybe we can pull off two years in a row for a big snow here. It seems we are in a pattern .

What bigger arctic front? How much colder? Any snow possible in the SE Texas area?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB has mentioned the threat of another big arctic outbreak down the plains between Dec. 20th and Dec. 30th. Models are still all over the place during that time period.

[jeff]

Few quick questions:

1) - Hey Jeff - do you work for the NWS? Just curious - your discussions here (and your Rita forecasts) are very similiar to NWS HGX. If you are, you guys do a great job!

2) There is talk in your discussion (and the NWS) that most of the precip. (if any) will evaporate due to dry air in the low levels. I'm curious what this is referencing - the surface temperature/dewpoint spread is not very great and surface RH values are fairly high. Where is this dry air located? Thanks.

I do not work for the NWS, but do work closely with them and know most of their forecast staff. They are great folks and do a great job. I am a met. for Harris County Flood Control.

The RH was not terribly dry at the surface, but the building arctic high had produced quite dry conditions above 925mb until one reached the saturated layer producing the mid level cloud deck overnight. Hence precip. (alothough there was none) falling from the mid level deck would evaporate before reaching the ground. Some concern was that rain that did reach the ground could wet bulb the air temp. toward the sub-freezing dewpoints and bring a 36-38 degree surface temp. to below freezing and hence change the rain to freezing rain.

In the end the clouds remained thick through the night which held temps. way up and no precip. fell in our CWA.

[jeff]

Widespread thick cloud deck stunted the temp. fall overnight with most areas along and S of US 59 remaining above freezing.



Where skies were clear it was bitter cold:



Fort Worth: 10

Gainesville: 9

Denton: 7

McKinney: 8

Waco: 16 (new record)

Llano: 19

Austin: 28

College Station: 27

Conroe: 31

IAH: 33



Mexican short wave will pass just south of the area today with thick mid level cloud deck overhead through much of the day. Arctic high will begin to shift eastward tonight, but clearing skies (MAYBE) may allow for one more shot at sub-freezing temps. Water vapor already shows high level cirrus streaming into N Mexico ahead of another disturbance off the CA coast and after last nights horrible temp. forecast with the clouds one is quite aware of the approaching cirrus deck.



Warm up to near seasonal normals begins Saturday, but temps. will remain cool by TX standards. Should see highs in the 50’s through the weekend with lows in the 30’s. Active sub-tropical jet next week will make for a wet and cool period with cold front Monday and again around Thursday. Moisture will be high with cloudy skies and periods of rainfall.



Extended: (All eyes to the North)



Will completely disregard the GFS as it is off its rocker with near continuous flip-flops with each run. ECMWF is much more consistent with expected pattern for late next week into next weekend. ECMWF is forecasting massive ridge amplification along the US west coast extending northward well into the arctic with tremendous downstream height falls over the central US. The model carves out a large scale long wave trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the US. -40F to -50F degree Siberia air mass builds over Canada during this time period. Current and I must say consistent ECMWF would deliver this air mass into the US Wednesday and Thursday. Such an upper air pattern would plunge the entire US east of the Rockies into a deep freeze. Current forecast has a cold front into TX Thursday, but it should clearly be noted that should the ECMWF pattern verify this current cold snap will look like a baby.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Extended: (All eyes to the North)



Will completely disregard the GFS as it is off its rocker with near continuous flip-flops with each run. ECMWF is much more consistent with expected pattern for late next week into next weekend. ECMWF is forecasting massive ridge amplification along the US west coast extending northward well into the arctic with tremendous downstream height falls over the central US. The model carves out a large scale long wave trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the US. -40F to -50F degree Siberia air mass builds over Canada during this time period. Current and I must say consistent ECMWF would deliver this air mass into the US Wednesday and Thursday. Such an upper air pattern would plunge the entire US east of the Rockies into a deep freeze. Current forecast has a cold front into TX Thursday, but it should clearly be noted that should the ECMWF pattern verify this current cold snap will look like a baby.

I heard Bastardi on the RGV Ag Radio station (able to get it sometimes up here in Corpus depending on weather) and he said this himself altough he was concerned more about the 20th through the 30th time period. He said what hit the valley would be several degrees colder than with this brief hit. Note they got down to the mid 30's and stayed there most of the day yesterday.

Buckle up. It might be a wild ride.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering that yesterday was the earliest that Houston has ever had a high in the middle 30s (37 at IAH), I would bet that we see a very cold winter and many more cold snaps to come.

[jasons2k]

I sure hope not!

Last night when I went to bed it was 32 at my house. This morning it was 33/34. Thank God the clouds held! My Majesty Palms were spared

I was hoping this would be it for a long time. I saw that Midand's low yesterday was the coldest since 1989. Amarillo, San Angelo, and Abilene yesterday were the lowest since 1996. Usually we won't see such a strong cold wave in the same season (or according to the numbers the same decade).

I can only pray that the blast next week gets shunted off to the east. We don't need it!

[jasons2k]

Few quick questions:

1) - Hey Jeff - do you work for the NWS? Just curious - your discussions here (and your Rita forecasts) are very similiar to NWS HGX. If you are, you guys do a great job!

2) There is talk in your discussion (and the NWS) that most of the precip. (if any) will evaporate due to dry air in the low levels. I'm curious what this is referencing - the surface temperature/dewpoint spread is not very great and surface RH values are fairly high. Where is this dry air located? Thanks.

I do not work for the NWS, but do work closely with them and know most of their forecast staff. They are great folks and do a great job. I am a met. for Harris County Flood Control.

The RH was not terribly dry at the surface, but the building arctic high had produced quite dry conditions above 925mb until one reached the saturated layer producing the mid level cloud deck overnight. Hence precip. (alothough there was none) falling from the mid level deck would evaporate before reaching the ground. Some concern was that rain that did reach the ground could wet bulb the air temp. toward the sub-freezing dewpoints and bring a 36-38 degree surface temp. to below freezing and hence change the rain to freezing rain.

In the end the clouds remained thick through the night which held temps. way up and no precip. fell in our CWA.

Thanks for the reply Jeff.

Hey - is there any way to access data from the guages posted along some of the freeways - like the one on the Hardy Tollway ramp that goes over I-45?

[gboudx]

jschlitz, my gas and electric bills don't need it either. I wrapped my water heater with a water heater blanket, and now need to make sure my windows are caulked, and door seals are in good shape. My house was cold this morning, but maybe since it was 10 outside, that had something to do with it.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I sure hope not!

Last night when I went to bed it was 32 at my house. This morning it was 33/34. Thank God the clouds held! My Majesty Palms were spared

I was hoping this would be it for a long time. I saw that Midand's low yesterday was the coldest since 1989. Amarillo, San Angelo, and Abilene yesterday were the lowest since 1996. Usually we won't see such a strong cold wave in the same season (or according to the numbers the same decade).

I can only pray that the blast next week gets shunted off to the east. We don't need it!

Read this everyone. It's about freezes in the RGV going back some 100 plus years. Very interesting.

http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic02.htm