North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
505 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005


.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HRS. SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND WEAK PULSES COMING FROM E
PAC UPPER LOW TO LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS BY 18Z AND
AFTER. ONLY LOW LVL MSTR TO SPEAK OF WILL BE KACT VCNTY/SWD AND
WILL INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN VFR ARND 5 KFT. OTRW...CALM WINDS TO
BECOME LGT S/SELY BY 00Z SAT AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005/

DISCUSSION...
NEW RECORD LOW OF 19 DEGREES FOR WACO WAS SET JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE THUS LARGE DIURNAL CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED (30+ DEGREES ON SATURDAY).  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATE
CAA...SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY/S. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING/SATURDAY AS WYOMING SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COOL
FRONT APPROACHES.

SPLIT UPPER AIR PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH
UPPER LOW CUT-OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A DEEP INTENSE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THE CUT-OFF LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THIS FEATURE. ONCE EAST OF NORTH
TEXAS...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE...JUST ANOTHER COOL DOWN.

CLIMATE...NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST
PRECIPITATION EVENT. CURRENTLY...DFW YTD PRECIPITATION IS 18.67
INCHES (5TH DRIEST). SIXTH PLACE IS 19.09 INCHES IN 1934...WHICH WE
COULD MATCH OR EXCEED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. AFTER THAT
RECORD... THE NUMBER 7TH DRIEST YEAR IS 1954 WITH 19.55 INCHES.

FOR WACO...SO FAR 23.10 INCHES IS 11TH DRIEST. NUMBER 12 IS 23.53
INCHES IN 1925.

[TexasStooge]

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NORTH TEXAS WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005

MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SKIES REMAINED CLEAR OVER THE
MAJORITY OF NORTH TEXAS...COMBINING WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND LIGHT WINDS FOR SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A WIDE RANGE OF
VALUES. RURAL AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX
HAD FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 13 DEGREES...WHILE MID TO
UPPER TEENS WERE THE RULE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WACO ACTUALLY ACHIEVED
THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 19 DEGREES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM HAS HAVE GRAZED AREAS
FROM CAMERON TO PALESTINE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES IN
THIS AREA STAYING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

AT 4 AM CST...TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS RANGED FROM 9
DEGREES AT DENTON...GAINESVILLE...GRAHAM...MCKINNEY...AND
BRIDGEPORT...TO 21 DEGREES AT SULPHUR SPRINGS AND TYLER.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LOW CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY INTO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THESE CLOUDS MAY BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATED FORECASTS ARE BEING SENT.  #58

&&


.AVIATION...
505 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005
VFR NEXT 24 HRS. SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND WEAK PULSES COMING FROM E
PAC UPPER LOW TO LIKELY RESULT IN SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS BY 18Z AND
AFTER. ONLY LOW LVL MSTR TO SPEAK OF WILL BE KACT VCNTY/SWD AND
WILL INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN VFR ARND 5 KFT. OTRW...CALM WINDS TO
BECOME LGT S/SELY BY 00Z SAT AT 5-8 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST FRI DEC 9 2005/

DISCUSSION...
NEW RECORD LOW OF 19 DEGREES FOR WACO WAS SET JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURFACE AIR WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE THUS LARGE DIURNAL CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED (30+ DEGREES ON SATURDAY).  ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATE
CAA...SUNDAY/S MAX TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT COOLER THAN
SATURDAY/S. HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING/SATURDAY AS WYOMING SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST AND COOL
FRONT APPROACHES.

SPLIT UPPER AIR PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH
UPPER LOW CUT-OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A DEEP INTENSE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THE CUT-OFF LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES EAST IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THIS WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THIS FEATURE. ONCE EAST OF NORTH
TEXAS...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY WE DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE...JUST ANOTHER COOL DOWN.

CLIMATE...NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST
PRECIPITATION EVENT. CURRENTLY...DFW YTD PRECIPITATION IS 18.67
INCHES (5TH DRIEST). SIXTH PLACE IS 19.09 INCHES IN 1934...WHICH WE
COULD MATCH OR EXCEED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. AFTER THAT
RECORD... THE NUMBER 7TH DRIEST YEAR IS 1954 WITH 19.55 INCHES.

FOR WACO...SO FAR 23.10 INCHES IS 11TH DRIEST. NUMBER 12 IS 23.53
INCHES IN 1925.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

.AVIATION...
PUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN FOR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS MAY
DROP EVEN LOWER AT WACO...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY GETS
SQUEEZED OUT OF THE SKY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH. DID
NO ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE TAFS SINCE CAPE IS LOW AND I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LIGHTNING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. 84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
340 AM
WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY THIS MORNING...BUT A VERY INTERESTING 7
DAY FCST TO ANALYZE. CURRENTLY AND AS EXPECTED...UPPER LOW THAT
WAS HOVERING OFF CA COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HAS BEGUN LIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC FROM GULF OF ALASKA/BERING
SEA. THIS HAS PUSHED A DIRTY S/W UPPER RIDGE OVER US THE PAST 24
HRS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...LOW LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE JUICIER
MOISTURE IS JUST WAITING TO GET PULLED UP NWD QUICKLY BY 00Z WED
OR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG LEE OF
ROCKIES WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS OK/KS BY THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LOW
DAMPENS INTO A STRONG S/W AND MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT...AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE SWEEPS TOWARD FAR WRN
COUNTIES BY 06Z. KEPT LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ERN 1/2 OF N TX WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE...WITH POPS
MORE IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FAR WRN COUNTIES NEAR GRAHAM
AND BRECKENRIDGE. AGAIN...SFC-BOUNDARY LAYER DOESN`T MOISTEN UP
ENOUGH NOR DO HIGH TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH FOR ANY SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO STEEPEN ENOUGH
ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTIONS FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER...ISOLATED
STORMS.

ACTIVITY TO BE RELEGATED OVER SE 1/2 OF N TX AS WE HEAD INTO
DAYBREAK WED MORNING...THEN END RAPIDLY WITH CLEARING FROM NW-
SE BY 00Z THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND BRISK N/NW WINDS AND
DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY WENT
COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS ~ NW 1/2 OF N TX AS CAA LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE...WHILE MAINTAIN MOS VALUES SE 1/2. ON THURSDAY...
SUNNY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WENT WITH COOLER
ETA/MET MOS VALUES HERE WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
 ANOTHER
CRISP/COLD NIGHT FOR MOST OF N TX THURS NIGHT. CLOUDS AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY...AS NEXT SWRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SETS UP SHOP. LEANING WITH ECMWF MOISTURE/PROGS FROM HERE AND
ONWARD AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX
INTENSIFIES OVER NRN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
THUS...AN INTITIAL SHOT OF POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SAT MORNING...WITH MORE SURGES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE BITTER COLD WX RETURNS FOLKS!


THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING IN A HURRY. SWRN CONUS
DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC
MACHINE GET GOING AGAIN AND INTRODUCED POTENTIAL OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
NORTH OF LAMPASAS-WACO- PALESTINE LINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
EVENING. KEPT SUN AND BEYOND DRY WITH CONFIDENCE VERY LOW THESE PDS.
WE`LL MENTION IN HWO...BUT NO WINTER WX OUTLOOK(SPS) AT THIS TIME
WITH MUCH REFINING TO BE DONE IN THE COMING DAYS ON POTENTIAL PRECIP
TYPES FOR N TX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WE WAIT FOR HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS TO GET A GRASP ON THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED!

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
305 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL PRESENT A HAZARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THESE
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE RED RIVER...RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL
TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH RAIN IN THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO END SATURDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 AM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEST TEXAS SHORT WAVE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVELS BECOME SATURATED.  BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY.  RAINFALL SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT AND LIGHT. SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AFTER 12Z AND ALLOW COLD FRONT
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NORTHERLY AROUND 16Z
AFTER FROPA.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
VALID TIME.

&&

.UPDATE...
12Z MODELS ALL AGREE THAT RAIN FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING AND WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE NW FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE
AREA AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING.  MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO HIGH
TEMPS TODAY.  OTHERWISE MADE CHANGES TO DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND AMENDED WORDING FOR PRECIP TONIGHT.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE THE NEW 12Z DATA CONCERNING POSSIBLE WINTER PRECIP FRI-SAT.

TR/92

&&

.AVIATION...
PUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN FOR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CIGS MAY
DROP EVEN LOWER AT WACO...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY GETS
SQUEEZED OUT OF THE SKY. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH. DID
NO ADD ANY THUNDER TO THE TAFS SINCE CAPE IS LOW AND I DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH LIGHTNING OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. 84

&&

.DISCUSSION...
340 AM
WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY THIS MORNING...BUT A VERY INTERESTING 7
DAY FCST TO ANALYZE. CURRENTLY AND AS EXPECTED...UPPER LOW THAT
WAS HOVERING OFF CA COASTLINE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HAS BEGUN LIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUTAIN WEST THIS MORNING...AS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL LOW DROPS SWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC FROM GULF OF ALASKA/BERING
SEA. THIS HAS PUSHED A DIRTY S/W UPPER RIDGE OVER US THE PAST 24
HRS WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...LOW LVL ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST ACROSS DEEP S TX WHERE JUICIER
MOISTURE IS JUST WAITING TO GET PULLED UP NWD QUICKLY BY 00Z WED
OR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG LEE OF
ROCKIES WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS OK/KS BY THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LOW
DAMPENS INTO A STRONG S/W AND MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT...AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE SWEEPS TOWARD FAR WRN
COUNTIES BY 06Z. KEPT LIKELY POPS GENERALLY ERN 1/2 OF N TX WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE...WITH POPS
MORE IN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FAR WRN COUNTIES NEAR GRAHAM
AND BRECKENRIDGE. AGAIN...SFC-BOUNDARY LAYER DOESN`T MOISTEN UP
ENOUGH NOR DO HIGH TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH FOR ANY SFC-BASED ACTIVITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT DO STEEPEN ENOUGH
ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTIONS FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER...ISOLATED
STORMS.

ACTIVITY TO BE RELEGATED OVER SE 1/2 OF N TX AS WE HEAD INTO
DAYBREAK WED MORNING...THEN END RAPIDLY WITH CLEARING FROM NW-
SE BY 00Z THURS AS COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND BRISK N/NW WINDS AND
DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY WENT
COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS NUMBERS ~ NW 1/2 OF N TX AS CAA LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE...WHILE MAINTAIN MOS VALUES SE 1/2. ON THURSDAY...
SUNNY AND COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WENT WITH COOLER
ETA/MET MOS VALUES HERE WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH NEIGHBORS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
 ANOTHER
CRISP/COLD NIGHT FOR MOST OF N TX THURS NIGHT. CLOUDS AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FRIDAY...AS NEXT SWRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SETS UP SHOP. LEANING WITH ECMWF MOISTURE/PROGS FROM HERE AND
ONWARD AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER LEVEL POLAR VORTEX
INTENSIFIES OVER NRN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO OUR WEST.
THUS...AN INTITIAL SHOT OF POLAR OR ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SAT MORNING...WITH MORE SURGES LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE BITTER COLD WX RETURNS FOLKS!


THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING IN A HURRY. SWRN CONUS
DISTURBANCE HEADS OUR WAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC
MACHINE GET GOING AGAIN AND INTRODUCED POTENTIAL OF RAIN/SNOW MIX
NORTH OF LAMPASAS-WACO- PALESTINE LINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
EVENING. KEPT SUN AND BEYOND DRY WITH CONFIDENCE VERY LOW THESE PDS.
WE`LL MENTION IN HWO...BUT NO WINTER WX OUTLOOK(SPS) AT THIS TIME
WITH MUCH REFINING TO BE DONE IN THE COMING DAYS ON POTENTIAL PRECIP
TYPES FOR N TX HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS WE WAIT FOR HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS TO GET A GRASP ON THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED!

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS RAPIDLY MODIFYING THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
ARE INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE...A WARM AND HUMID EVENING IS IN STORE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE NW...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE RAIN IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. THE HIGH POPS MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING...AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT COVERAGE HIGH DUE TO FAST MOVING
ECHOES. BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10 OF AN INCH WILL BE
EAST OF I-35 WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
EAST IN THE MORNING AND RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST. FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NOON BUT GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. COOL AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS
ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY ACCUMULATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME...AND IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IT WOULD
PROBABLY BE OMITTED WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE MINIMAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

ARCTIC AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI-
TUE. HAVE OMITTED ANY POPS FOR MON-TUE NEXT WEEK...AS PRECIP TYPE
WOULD HAVE TO BE OF FROZEN VARIETY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141000-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
330 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
TEMPLE LINE WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN INCREASING NORTH
WINDS AND DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THESE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

BY FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAIN MAY
MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF A
GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS LINE. SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
KDFW TRACON.  HOWEVER...EXPECT STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ASSOCIATED COLUMN SATURATION TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 14/03Z.  WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR -SHRA AND CIGS AROUND 2 KFT FROM 03-07Z FOR THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS...WITH TEMPO GROUP FROM 05-09Z FOR KACT.  MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH 12Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND LONGER AT KACT... BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING CIGS.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST BETWEEN 16-18Z...WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS RAPIDLY MODIFYING THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
ARE INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE...A WARM AND HUMID EVENING IS IN STORE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE NW...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE RAIN IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. THE HIGH POPS MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING...AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT COVERAGE HIGH DUE TO FAST MOVING
ECHOES. BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10 OF AN INCH WILL BE
EAST OF I-35 WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
EAST IN THE MORNING AND RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST. FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NOON BUT GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. COOL AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS
ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY ACCUMULATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME...AND IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IT WOULD
PROBABLY BE OMITTED WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE MINIMAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

ARCTIC AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI-
TUE. HAVE OMITTED ANY POPS FOR MON-TUE NEXT WEEK...AS PRECIP TYPE
WOULD HAVE TO BE OF FROZEN VARIETY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CST TUE DEC 13 2005

.905 PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WE WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS...TO LOWER POPS IN THE
WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND RAISE POPS EVER SO
SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO
INCREASE A BIT...AS IT MOVES INTO SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE IN THE
EAST. ANY CHANGE IN OTHER GRIDED FIELDS/FORECASTS WILL BE MINOR.

26/ARM

.550 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
KDFW TRACON.  HOWEVER...EXPECT STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ASSOCIATED COLUMN SATURATION TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 14/03Z.  WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR -SHRA AND CIGS AROUND 2 KFT FROM 03-07Z FOR THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS...WITH TEMPO GROUP FROM 05-09Z FOR KACT.  MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THROUGH 12Z ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND LONGER AT KACT... BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS SUFFICIENTLY FOR RAPIDLY IMPROVING CIGS.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL FORECAST BETWEEN 16-18Z...WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS RAPIDLY MODIFYING THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
ARE INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA...THEREFORE...A WARM AND HUMID EVENING IS IN STORE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE NW...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE RAIN IS EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND AT
THIS POINT. THE HIGH POPS MAY BE A BIT MISLEADING...AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BUT COVERAGE HIGH DUE TO FAST MOVING
ECHOES. BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10 OF AN INCH WILL BE
EAST OF I-35 WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA
OF BETTER LOW LEVEL WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
EAST IN THE MORNING AND RAIN WILL END WEST TO EAST. FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY NOON BUT GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. COOL AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST GETS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TOWARD THE WEEKEND BUT MODELS
ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH QPF AMOUNTS AGAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT
THAT IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLAKES
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...HOWEVER...SURFACE
TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY ACCUMULATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN IS VERY LOW AT
THIS TIME...AND IF IT WERE NOT ALREADY IN THE FORECAST IT WOULD
PROBABLY BE OMITTED WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE MINIMAL IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

ARCTIC AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FRI-
TUE. HAVE OMITTED ANY POPS FOR MON-TUE NEXT WEEK...AS PRECIP TYPE
WOULD HAVE TO BE OF FROZEN VARIETY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY/S LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER A
BIT IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDDAY OR MID
AFTERNOON.

I HAVE TONED DOWN THE SATURDAY PRECIP A BIT. TX COASTAL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY SO
MOISTURE OVERRUN IS NOT AS GOOD...AND THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 20-30
METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. BASED ON THIS MODEL RUN
ALONE I COULD HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP...BUT JUST IN
CASE OF A MODEL FLIP FLOP KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN.

AS THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...COLDER AIR
DROPS INTO NORTH TEXAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA AND A NEW UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE PANHANDLE. HAVE INDICATED THIS ONE AS ALL SNOW...BUT KEPT
POP CHANCES AT SLIGHT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION FOR THE
MODELS AND IT HAS NO CONTINUITY. ECMWF SHOWS BROAD AGREEMENT...BUT DO NOT
HAVE THE DETAILED OUTPUT TO DO A CLOSE COMPARISON. COLD AIR THEN
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH DAY SEVEN WITH NO SOUTH FLOW INDICATED BY
MRF UNTIL FRIDAY PM (240 HOURS).

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151045-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
442 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT IS MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY. AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE WEST MONDAY AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
830 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE BIG
BEND REGION AND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMPLEMENTS OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BY 18Z.  THESE FEATURES ARE
RESULTING IN CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.  THEREFORE WE HAVE ADDED
AND INCREASED POPS SOUTH OF I-20.  ADDITIONAL HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
BOARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

TR/92


&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY/S LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER A
BIT IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDDAY OR MID
AFTERNOON.

I HAVE TONED DOWN THE SATURDAY PRECIP A BIT. TX COASTAL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY SO
MOISTURE OVERRUN IS NOT AS GOOD...AND THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 20-30
METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. BASED ON THIS MODEL RUN
ALONE I COULD HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP...BUT JUST IN
CASE OF A MODEL FLIP FLOP KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN.

AS THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...COLDER AIR
DROPS INTO NORTH TEXAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA AND A NEW UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE PANHANDLE. HAVE INDICATED THIS ONE AS ALL SNOW...BUT KEPT
POP CHANCES AT SLIGHT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION FOR THE
MODELS AND IT HAS NO CONTINUITY. ECMWF SHOWS BROAD AGREEMENT...BUT DO NOT
HAVE THE DETAILED OUTPUT TO DO A CLOSE COMPARISON. COLD AIR THEN
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH DAY SEVEN WITH NO SOUTH FLOW INDICATED BY
MRF UNTIL FRIDAY PM (240 HOURS).

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1025 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FURTHER ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA AS
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
REACHED IN SOME LOCATIONS AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S OR
LOWER 50S TODAY.  ALSO MADE CHANGES TO THE FRI-SAT PERIOD TO SCALE
BACK THE WINTER PRECIP AND INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY.  COLD
LIGHT RAIN IN OVERRUNNING PATTERN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.  THE
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW CWA...BUT
THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES TO REACH THE SURFACE LATE FRI NIGHT OVER
THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA.   TR/92

&&

.UPDATE...
830 AM
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE BIG
BEND REGION AND MODELS INDICATE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COMPLEMENTS OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BY 18Z.  THESE FEATURES ARE
RESULTING IN CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING...AND WE ARE EXPECTING RAIN
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE/INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.  THEREFORE WE HAVE ADDED
AND INCREASED POPS SOUTH OF I-20.  ADDITIONAL HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY AND
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
BOARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

TR/92


&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY/S LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER A
BIT IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDDAY OR MID
AFTERNOON.

I HAVE TONED DOWN THE SATURDAY PRECIP A BIT. TX COASTAL
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY SO
MOISTURE OVERRUN IS NOT AS GOOD...AND THICKNESSES ARE ABOUT 20-30
METERS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL. BASED ON THIS MODEL RUN
ALONE I COULD HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP...BUT JUST IN
CASE OF A MODEL FLIP FLOP KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN.

AS THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...COLDER AIR
DROPS INTO NORTH TEXAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON GFS 850MB TEMPS ARE
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA AND A NEW UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE PANHANDLE. HAVE INDICATED THIS ONE AS ALL SNOW...BUT KEPT
POP CHANCES AT SLIGHT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION FOR THE
MODELS AND IT HAS NO CONTINUITY. ECMWF SHOWS BROAD AGREEMENT...BUT DO NOT
HAVE THE DETAILED OUTPUT TO DO A CLOSE COMPARISON. COLD AIR THEN
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH DAY SEVEN WITH NO SOUTH FLOW INDICATED BY
MRF UNTIL FRIDAY PM (240 HOURS).

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT.
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURS FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE PACIFIC. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP ON AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT STILL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF UPGLIDE ON THE
295K LEVEL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT AREAL COVERAGE HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES TO REACH THE GROUND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS. ARCTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PER
DGEX/ECMWF/UKMET FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS MUCH
COLDER THAN MEX GUIDANCE IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SINCE THE SURFACE TO 700MB LAYER
WILL BE PLAGUED BY COLD ADVECTION...SNOW...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT. GFS APPEARS TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH THIS EVENT...AND
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DGEX/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OF JUST VERY
LIGHT QPF. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES/AMOUNTS OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE
NW/W OF OUR CWA. OF COURSE THIS IS A DAY 6 SNOW FORECAST...AND
WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS TIME GOES ON.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
935 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005

.PUBLIC UPDATE...935 PM CST
WE HAVE EDITED THE GRIDS TO TAKE 20% POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST IN THE
SOUTHEAST...AND HAVE THINNED OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOR THE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. NEW ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE OUT IN A FEW
MINUTES.  #26

&&

.AVIATION...530 PM CST
A FEW BRIEF GUSTS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS EXITING...STEADY N/NW WINDS
NEXT 24 HRS. NO CONCERNS. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
332 PM CST

POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND TAKE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH IT.
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDINESS OCCURS FRIDAY
MORNING AS NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE PACIFIC. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP ON AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM RUN TO
RUN...BUT STILL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF UPGLIDE ON THE
295K LEVEL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA...BUT AREAL COVERAGE HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20 MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES TO REACH THE GROUND. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT ARCTIC AIRMASS. ARCTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PER
DGEX/ECMWF/UKMET FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS MUCH
COLDER THAN MEX GUIDANCE IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SINCE THE SURFACE TO 700MB LAYER
WILL BE PLAGUED BY COLD ADVECTION...SNOW...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT. GFS APPEARS TO BE WAY OVERDONE WITH THIS EVENT...AND
HAVE SIDED WITH THE DGEX/UKMET/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OF JUST VERY
LIGHT QPF. MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANCES/AMOUNTS OF SNOW APPEAR TO BE
NW/W OF OUR CWA. OF COURSE THIS IS A DAY 6 SNOW FORECAST...AND
WILL LIKELY BE REFINED AS TIME GOES ON.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES FROM WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  #58


&&

.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005
WARM DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY PRECIP LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND RAIN WITH A
BIT OF SLUSH MIXED IN NORTH OF THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
WHILE PRECIP PRODUCING LAYER IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT IS
GENERALLY WARMER THAN -5C AND THAT WOULD MAKE THE PRECIP MORE A
LIQUID RATHER THAN ICE PHASE PROCESS. SOME FREEZING WILL OCCUR ON
DESCENT AND THAT/S WHY I EXPECT SOME SLUSH MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IN
THE MORNING. BY MID MORNING NORTHERN HALF IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ONLY. ONCE AGAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAVING A CHANCE OF
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT CAN GET SQUEEZED OUT WILL FALL AS
SNOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHERE WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE. AFTER TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE BACK TO
THE DRY REGIME AGAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
600 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
MIX WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT. THEREFORE...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY WHILE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES OVER BAJA. THE COMBINATION
OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS MONDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESSED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WILL BE OUTLINED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.UPDATE...
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH VERY DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA TODAY.  DECIDED WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

NEW MODEL RUNS JUST ARRIVED IN HOUSE.  QUICK LOOK AND FIRST GUESS IS
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN NORTH OF I-20...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDING WARMS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.  THUS I
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE A
TEXAS COASTAL SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR CWA BEING
FAVORED FOR A GOOD WETTING AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES....GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY.

WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE WINTRY THREAT.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
530 AM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES FROM WEST
TEXAS THIS MORNING...TO ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  #58


&&

.DISCUSSION...
302 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005
WARM DRY DAY FOR THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY PRECIP LOOKS LIKE ALL RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND RAIN WITH A
BIT OF SLUSH MIXED IN NORTH OF THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
WHILE PRECIP PRODUCING LAYER IS AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT IS
GENERALLY WARMER THAN -5C AND THAT WOULD MAKE THE PRECIP MORE A
LIQUID RATHER THAN ICE PHASE PROCESS. SOME FREEZING WILL OCCUR ON
DESCENT AND THAT/S WHY I EXPECT SOME SLUSH MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN IN
THE MORNING. BY MID MORNING NORTHERN HALF IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
ONLY. ONCE AGAIN...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS...WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST HAVING A CHANCE OF
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS.

COLD AIR MOVES IN MONDAY WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT CAN GET SQUEEZED OUT WILL FALL AS
SNOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE ZONES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXCEPT IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHERE WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE. AFTER TUESDAY IT LOOKS LIKE BACK TO
THE DRY REGIME AGAIN...AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.UPDATE...
NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WITH VERY DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA TODAY. DECIDED WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

NEW MODEL RUNS JUST ARRIVED IN HOUSE. QUICK LOOK AND FIRST GUESS IS
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH INITIALLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN NORTH OF I-20...BUT THE
MODEL SOUNDING WARMS ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. THUS I
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS WILL BE A
TEXAS COASTAL SYSTEM WITH THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF OUR CWA BEING
FAVORED FOR A GOOD WETTING AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES....GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY.

WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE WINTRY THREAT.